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The market reaction to this afternoon’s Fed meeting looks overdone. Investors could be in for a hawkish surprise when it becomes apparent that the Fed won’t ease policy into higher tariff-driven inflation prints.
The ECB cut rates as expected, but rising yields and a stronger euro are tightening financial conditions just as fiscal policy shifts the macro landscape. With more rate cuts ahead and market positioning stretched, we outline the key risks, investment opportunities, and our updated call on the ECB’s terminal rate. Read our full report for actionable insights.
Following today’s Bank of England’s policy meeting, at which the policy rate was cut by 25 bps, we discuss our outlook for monetary policy in the UK. We expect the gradual easing to continue and discuss the investment implications for UK gilts and sterling.
The latest version of the MacroQuant model suggests that the bull market in US stocks is winding down. The model expects Treasury yields to fall later this year but is not ready to go long duration just yet.
