Suaves

El riesgo de un “super El Niño” representa una amenaza significativa para los mercados agrícolas. El trigo, el cacao y el aceite de palma parecen particularmente vulnerables a las interrupciones de suministro relacionadas con El Niño. 

Un aumento en los precios de los alimentos también podría generar repercusiones políticas — y potencialmente geopolíticas — en los mercados fronterizos y emergentes, donde los precios de los alimentos son mucho más relevantes que en las economías desarrolladas.

Los precios más altos del petróleo amenazan la economía mundial, lo que justifica una postura infraponderada en renta variable. A largo plazo, los metales industriales tendrán un mejor desempeño que el crudo.

The US economy has never entered a demand-driven recession without labour demand running below labour supply and without the job vacancy rate running below the unemployment rate. Right now though, US labour demand is still running 1.7 million workers above labour supply, and the job vacancy rate is running comfortably above the unemployment rate. This suggests that the labour market is still supply-constrained, and that a demand-driven recession is not imminent. We discuss the investment implications. Plus, more about our ‘trade of the century’: long cotton versus coffee.

Investors hope that the ECB rate cuts priced into the curve will be sufficient to achieve a soft landing in Europe. History argues against this view, but will this time be different?

Global ag markets will become more volatile as anthropogenically induced climate change continues to degrade farmland. This will make price signals emanating from these markets less efficient in terms of processing supply-demand fundamentals. All else equal, food prices likely move higher, which will contribute to inflationary biases in the medium-to-long run. Investors will continue to seek out farmland investments as a way to diversify portfolio risk and raise absolute returns.