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Fabricación

ISM Confirma Un Crecimiento Lento Y Un Impulso Inflacionario Menguante ISM Confirma Un Crecimiento Lento Y Un Impulso Inflacionario Menguante El ISM de junio apunta a una fabricación estadounidense lenta y refuerza la posición de larga duración en medio de…
Los PMIs confirman un telón de fondo de crecimiento prudente, reforzando la postura de larga duración Los PMIs confirman un telón de fondo de crecimiento prudente, reforzando la postura de larga duración Los PMI de junio confirman un bajo crecimiento global y…
Manufactura Empire: Expectativas en Alza, Actividad Sigue Débil Manufactura Empire: Expectativas en Alza, Actividad Sigue Débil Los datos de manufactura en deterioro refuerzan nuestra postura defensiva mientras las expectativas se recuperan, pero la actividad…
Informe especial

Robotics is on the cusp of a new, powerful uptrend, powered by reshoring and technological breakthroughs that make robots more capable and affordable.

The May ISM Services PMI sent a stagflationary signal, reinforcing the case for defensive positioning. The headline index slipped into contraction at 49.9 from 51.6 in April, missing expectations. New orders collapsed to 46.4 from 52.3, while employment edged…
The May ISM Manufacturing Index missed expectations, reinforcing our view that recession risks remain underpriced. The headline fell to 48.5 from 48.7, while new orders and employment both rebounded slightly but remained below the 50-expansion threshold. New…

Después de considerar algunos de los argumentos alcistas más comunes, mantenemos nuestra visión de recesión y reiteramos nuestras recomendaciones de asignación defensiva de activos.

The US-China trade truce lifted short-term manufacturing sentiment in May, but margin pressures persist, reinforcing the case for defensive, domestic-focused equity positioning. The Empire and Philly Fed regional manufacturing surveys delivered a split signal…

A weakening economy will apply downward pressure to Treasury yields, but the Trump term premium will keep long-dated yields higher than they would otherwise be. This makes Treasury curve steepeners the most attractive trade in US fixed income.

Informe especial

Short-term pain from Trump-related concessions, fiscal tightening amid a US and Mexican slowdown, and rising labor slack will weigh further on Mexican assets. But long-run, policy direction will capitalize on the nearshoring trend and resume the trend of Mexican asset outperformance relative to other emerging markets.