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Estados Unidos

Our Geopolitical strategists published a Special Report discussing President Trump’s rhetoric on territorial expansion in North America, Greenland, and Panama. The biggest surprise of Trump’s first weeks in office has not been tariffs, which were expected and…

Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for January 2025.

The US High-Quality (USHQ) portfolio slightly outperformed in January, returning 3.4%, whilst its SPY benchmark returned 2.9%. That said, we think the USHQ portfolio will have a solid run through the first half of 2025, benefitting from rising market risk on the back of President Trump’s tariff agenda. USHQ’s underlying Quality and Safety Score factor tilts will be increasingly favored as market uncertainty grows.  

Trade tensions muddy the outlook for global central banks. The 2010s were an era of low growth and low inflation that called for easy monetary policy. The post-COVID era has been marked by overheating and high inflation calling for tight policy. The second…
While the US dollar has outperformed every single DM currency in the past few months, the only monetary asset it did not outperform is gold. The greenback is up between 5-10% against DM currencies since September of last year, but down by more than 8% vs.…
December job openings missed estimates, decreasing to 7.6m from an upwardly revised 8.2m in November. Quits, hires, but also layoffs all ticked up marginally, leaving the general “slowing-but-not-collapsing” direction of the labor market unchanged. The labor…
President Trump shot the opening salvo of his second trade war, announcing 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico, with a more modest 10% on China and Canadian energy. Both countries retaliated with tariffs and non-tariff measures. Financial markets initially sold…
Our Global Investment strategists offered their initial thoughts on the nascent US trade war with its allies, with a few longer-term takeaways. President Trump’s decision to delay Mexico tariffs on Monday highlights the uncertainty surrounding trade policy.…
El índice ISM manufacturero de enero superó las estimaciones, aumentando a 50,9 para poner fin a una racha de 26 meses de contracción en la manufactura. Los nuevos pedidos subieron a 55,1 desde 52,1. El empleo también volvió a la expansión. Los precios…

The 10% tariff hike announced on Saturday will likely serve as the opening salvo in a broader wave of protectionist measures. In this report, we assess the increase in US import tariffs on China. While the direct impact on China’s overall economy may be manageable, the country’s economy faces significant risks from potential disruptions in global trade.