Economy

The January UK CPI was slightly hotter than expected. Headline inflation beat estimates, rising to 3.0% y/y from 2.5% in December. Core inflation also jumped but was in line with expectations at 3.7%. Services were strong, albeit slightly lower than expected…

1 año 1 años ago

Inflation Labor Market UK

CoreMacro

Take Advantage Of Macro Surprises

We introduce a systematic approach to investing based on the combination of three macroeconomic variables: economic, inflation, and monetary policy surprises.

1 año 1 años ago

Europe Economy

Essentials

Deciphering Metal Market Dislocations

Our Emerging Markets and Commodities strategists explored the dislocations in metals markets as tariffs fears led to physical flows to the US and price spikes. US import tariffs on gold, silver, platinum, and copper are unlikely because their economic or…

1 año 1 años ago

Commodities & Energy Sector Tariffs Economic Growth

Essentials

Sentiment Data Suggests Europe Is Past Peak Pessimism

The February ZEW index for Germany and the eurozone beat estimates, with the expectations component rising to 26.0 from 10.3 a month prior. The current situation assessment also improved, although it remains deeply negative at -88.5. The improvement matches…

1 año 1 años ago

Economic Theory Economic Growth Europe

Essentials

Canadian Inflation Remains At Target

January Canadian headline inflation was in line with estimates at 1.9% y/y. The Bank of Canada’s core measures were slightly hotter than expected, rising to 2.7%, near the top of the Bank of Canada’s 1%-to-3% target range. Canadian inflation remains under…

1 año 1 años ago

Canada Inflation Monetary Policy

FICC

The RBA Delivers A Hawkish First Cut

Overnight, the RBA cut the cash target rate for the first time since 2022, marking the beginning of the policy easing cycle in Australia. However, the RBA will proceed cautiously with further rate cuts, given a tight labor market and still elevated services inflation. This will keep Australian government bond yields elevated versus global yields, benefitting the Australian dollar.

1 año 1 años ago

Australia Monetary Policy Labor Market

FICC

Value & Timing In The US Bond Market

Ryan will outline the value proposition in US bonds and discuss the main factors that will determine the direction of yields over the next 6-12 months, including:

1 año 1 años ago

Corporate Bonds Economy

Essentials

Will Trump Make Europe Great Again?

While the main Q1 2025 theme has been “America First”, the year-to-date market story has been more nuanced. “America First” would suggest an outperformance of US assets, but it is European assets that have started the year on a strong footing: The EURO STOXX…

1 año 1 años ago

Equities Europe Economic Growth

Essentials

Japan: Strong Q4 GDP Points To Further BoJ Hikes

Preliminary estimates of Q4 real GDP growth in Japan was stronger than expected, rising to 2.8% q/q annualized from 1.7% in Q3. Domestic demand remained strong, and the GDP deflator increased to 2.8% y/y. Japan’s economy is running hot, sustaining price…

1 año 1 años ago

Japan Business Cycles Economic Growth

CoreMacro

German Election: Winds Of Change, Again

Informe especial

The rise of the far-right is challenging mainstream German politics. The CDU/CSU and SPD will govern Germany again after the election. A ceasefire in Ukraine will offer some relief, but Trump’s policies will keep tensions high.

1 año 1 años ago

Germany Elections

Economy

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