Economic Growth
The preliminary January University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index missed estimates on Friday, driven by a cooling of consumer expectations. Worryingly, both the 1-year and 5-to-10 year inflation expectations ticked up to 3.3% from 2.8% and 3.0%,…
UK and German bonds are victims of the global bond market riots. Will European yields continue to move higher and will the euro and the pound find a floor anytime soon?
In this week’s report, we present our key takeaways from China's two notable adjustments recently implemented: an upward revision to its 2023 GDP and the reduction of the USD weighting in the RMB Exchange Rate Index.
November factory orders in Germany widely missed estimates, falling by 5.4% m/m, worsening the 1.5% October decline. Excluding major orders, which often distort the overall picture, core new orders fell 1.7% y/y after growing 5.7% in October. The European…
Our GeoMacro strategists published their Alpha Report, outlining their view that President Trump will have to pare back his fiscal ambitions to avoid a bond market riot. The long end of the US bond market continues to sell off, reinforcing our colleagues’…
December euro area inflation met expectations, with headline HICP printing at 2.4% y/y from 2.2% in November, and core steady at 2.7%, above the ECB’s target. Services inflation remains elevated at 4.0% y/y, up from 3.9% a month prior. While services…
Las ofertas de empleo volvieron a superar las expectativas en noviembre, aumentando a 8,1 millones desde 7,8 millones en octubre. Sin embargo, las contrataciones y las renuncias disminuyeron y los despidos aumentaron. La brecha entre renuncias y despidos, un…
The December ISM Services PMI beat estimates, increasing to 54.1 from 52.1 in November. All subcomponents increased except for employment, which nonetheless remains in expansion. The prices paid component was especially strong, increasing to 64.4 from 58.2.…
US November housing data was mixed, but still reflected a weak picture. Housing starts were down 1.8% m/m, below expectations of a 2.6% increase. However, building permits were stronger than expected, increasing 6.1%. Units under construction remain in free…
The Federal Reserve cut the fed funds rate by 25 bps to a 4.25%-4.5% range, as expected. However, it was a “hawkish cut”; the FOMC signaled a slower pace of easing ahead. The statement signalled less urgency, saying the “extent and timing” for further cuts…