Aeroespacial y Defensa

Las acciones aeroespaciales y de defensa de Estados Unidos todavía cuentan con un viento de cola estructural por la geopolítica, pero enfrentan crecientes desafíos cíclicos derivados de los fundamentos macroeconómicos y de mercado, además de eventuales ceses al fuego en Irán y Ucrania y cambios políticos en Estados Unidos.

Esta perspectiva da vida a cuatro opiniones de alta convicción sobre pequeñas capitalizaciones europeas, aeroespacio y defensa, bancos y telecomunicaciones, aprovechando el poder del Analizador de Acciones (EA) de BCA.

European equities have surged on hopes of a low-inflation boom—but the rally has likely gone too far, too fast. With a pullback now likely, how should investors position themselves over the next 3–6 months?

Trump’s ceasefire talks are positive for Germany – and so was the German election result. But Trump’s tariffs will hit Germany soon. Investors should use near-term volatility to increase exposure to Germany.

Europe is about to become President Trump’s next target. The good news: a US/EU trade war will be short as common ground to achieve a deal exists. The bad news: European assets remain at the mercy of heightened uncertainty. How should investors position themselves in this tricky context?

Los inversores han renunciado a los activos europeos, que ahora cotizan con descuentos excepcionales respecto a los activos estadounidenses. Sin embargo, una política fiscal estadounidense más restrictiva, el fin de la austeridad y del desapalancamiento en Europa, el tsunami de GNL a punto de golpear las costas europeas y el capex global impulsado por la Tríada Geopolítica Imposible significan que el momento de gloria de Europa pronto volverá.

Investors have given up on European assets, which now suffer exceptional discounts to US ones. However, tighter US fiscal policy, the end of Europe’s austerity and deleveraging, the LNG Tsunami about to hit European shores, and the global capex fueled by the Impossible Geopolitical Trinity mean that Europe’s time to shine will soon come back.

We close our overweights to Energy and Aerospace & Defense. The macroeconomic backdrop is deteriorating for Energy. As for A&D, the good news is already priced in.

The US manufacturing renaissance, spurred on by reshoring, automation, and government spending, is running its course but progress has slowed on the back of tight monetary conditions and the manufacturing recession. The deceleration of these positive trends weighs on the outlook for the Capital Goods industry group, impeding its performance over the short term. However, we reiterate that positive long-term trends for the industry remain intact. We downgrade Capital Goods to a tactical underweight. It remains a strategic overweight.