United States

Simple games allow us to model several of the Trump administration’s most disruptive policies in 2025. We find that markets face an increase in volatility as Congress expands the budget, Trump implements tariffs on the world, China retaliates, and Taiwan tensions persist. A ceasefire in Ukraine is a marginally positive outcome for Europe, although it is not a long-term peace treaty. 

We anticipate decisive tariff measures early in Trump’s second term. In this Special Report, we explore how the costs of higher tariffs might be distributed among foreign suppliers, U.S. importers, and consumers.

Global risk assets are engulfed in a wave of euphoria, which is pulling Europe higher along the way. However, risks still abound. How should investors adjust their allocation to Europe under these highly uncertain conditions?
 

We forecast Treasury and corporate bond returns in three different economic scenarios. This report focuses on what returns might look like in a scenario where inflation is sticky and the Fed makes a hawkish pivot.

While the US economy could remain upright on the tightrope for a while longer, it will inevitably fall, leading to a major bear market in stocks. We will be looking to our MacroQuant model for guidance on when to turn fully defensive. We are not there yet.