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The years ahead will be more complex for investors. Inflation expectations and its leading indicators will matter as much as realized inflation, and rates volatility is likely to remain structurally higher. This calls for increasing strategic allocations to…
A sharp drop in consumer confidence adds to signs that a consumption slowdown is coming, threatening both US and global growth. Yet rising short-term inflation expectations will keep central banks cautious, weighing on long-term yields even as growth weakens.…

An analysis of historical data shows that Ba-rated bonds outperform other corporate credit tiers in the long-run on a risk-adjusted basis. That said, today’s fragile macro environment warrants a more cautious allocation. 

Households’ healthy balance sheets do not square with the rise in credit cards and auto loans delinquencies. The tailwinds that have supported higher-income cohorts’ spending have faded, presaging broad-based deterioration in credit performance. 

European equities have surged on hopes of a low-inflation boom—but the rally has likely gone too far, too fast. With a pullback now likely, how should investors position themselves over the next 3–6 months?

The March flash estimate for European Consumer Confidence missed estimates, and fell to -14.5 from -13.6 in February. This negative reading is the first European sentiment number missing expectations since January. The sentiment shift between the US and…
Our Chart Of The Week comes from Mathieu Savary, Chief Strategist of our European Investment Strategy service. Mathieu believes the recent outperformance of European over US risk assets is unlikely to last over the next 3-6 months.  Markets are…
Our tactical framework highlights how financial conditions and economic surprises interact, where growth often sows the seeds of its own demise. Markets price expectations efficiently but lack perfect foresight, making data surprises key to price action.…

This week, our three screeners cover equity plays for “transitory” inflation impacts from US tariffs, a correction in sentiment within the European Aerospace and Defense industry, and Value Investor, Warren Buffett’s Philosophy.  

The March Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing index beat expectations, but still fell from 18.1 to 12.5, significantly down from January’s lofty 44.3 reading. Most activity components slowed except for current employment and work hours. Price pressure indicators…