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United States

US Retail Worries
US May retail sales missed expectations, reinforcing our defensive allocation stance. Headline sales fell 0.9% m/m from a downwardly revised -0.1%. Core sales dropped 0.1%, while the control group rose 0.4%, beating estimates. Auto sales were especially weak…
Daily Insights by Felix Vezina-Poirier
Israel-Iran Decision Tree, 2025

Israel’s attacks on Iran will continue until Iran is forced to strike regional oil supply to get the US to restrain Israel. That may not work. Investors should prepare for a broader economic impact of the conflict. 

Geopolitical Strategy by Matt Gertken
Empire Manufacturing: Expectations Up, Activity Still Weak
Worsening manufacturing data reinforces our defensive stance as expectations rebound but observed activity continues to deteriorate. The June Empire State Manufacturing Survey fell to -16.0 from -9.2, well below estimates. Expectations rebounded, but the…
Daily Insights by Felix Vezina-Poirier
A Technical Note On The Dollar

In this FX note, we provide a rationale for why it is important to pay attention to technical indicators, while still keeping your eyeball on the structural factors that drive currencies. This report answers the following questions: 1. Should you buy or sell the USD over a three-to-six month period from the pure lens of our proven technical indicators and 2. What are the best tactical cross trades among currencies. 

Foreign Exchange Strategy by Chester Ntonifor
Israel-Iran: The Tipping Point

Investors should hold gold, build up some cash, tactically overweight US equities relative to global, and prepare for at least minor oil supply shocks – possibly major shocks – as the Israel-Iran war escalates.

Geopolitical Strategy, Commodity & Energy Strategy by Matt Gertken
Weekly Screeners: I-Robot; European Quality & Technical; Hong Kong Equities

This week our three screeners explore equity trades in Robotics, European Quality and Technical, and Hong Kong. 

Equity Analyzer by Guy Russell, Henry Tang
How Tight Is The Labor Market?
The US labor market appears balanced but at a pivotal point, with further weakness likely to prompt a shift to maximum defensiveness. After running the hottest since the 1960s, the labor market has gradually cooled. That rebalancing sparked a brief growth…
Daily Insights by Felix Vezina-Poirier
Consumer Sentiment Rebounds, But Fed Still Trapped by Sticky Expectations
While consumer sentiment is rebounding, sticky inflation expectations and slowing growth warrant staying long duration and steepeners. The preliminary June University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index surprised to the upside, rising to 60.5 from 52.2.…
Daily Insights by Felix Vezina-Poirier
The Labor Market Is Weakening, But Not Cracking Yet
Further labor market deterioration would trigger a shift to maximum underweight in equities. While soft indicators have markedly deteriorated, hard labor data remains relatively resilient, though it has clearly weakened. The labor market is still in…
Daily Insights by Felix Vezina-Poirier
Steepeners Still Have Juice As Fed Caution Cheapens Front End
Elevated inflation expectations are keeping the Fed sidelined, reinforcing our long-duration and steepener bias in US rates. The US May CPI would have normally supported cuts, but the Fed cannot risk elevated short-term inflation expectations feeding…
Daily Insights by Felix Vezina-Poirier

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