United States
Results from the Jolts Survey continue to indicate that the US labor market is softening. The number of job openings fell from 10.7 million to 10.3 million in October, in line with the general downtrend that started in Q2. The survey’s other measures…
After collapsing earlier this year, the US Economic Surprise Index has been recovering and returned to positive territory at the beginning of November. A positive reading indicates that economic data releases have generally surprised to the upside, beating…
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence index fell from 102.2 to 100.2 in November, marking a second consecutive month of decline following a brief improvement in Q3. Both the Present Situation and Expectations sub-indices declined from downwardly revised…
BCA Research’s US Bond Strategy service recommends that investors nudge portfolio duration up to neutral as we head into 2023. Then, starting in January, the team's task will be to call the cyclical peak in Treasury yields once they are confident that the…
This week we present six key investment views for 2023.
The US October CPI report showed a broad-based moderation of inflationary pressures, suggesting that price pressures have likely peaked and will continue to ease going forward. A wage-price spiral -- whereby workers demand higher wages to compensate for…
The S&P 500 Industrials sector is among the top performers in the recent equity rally, gaining 17% since October 12. On a year-to-date basis, the sector’s 6.2% decline is more muted than the benchmark’s 16.8% drop. Industrial stocks’ relative…
Crypto broker FTX’s bankruptcy does not pose a systemic threat to markets. It did reveal something deeply unflattering about excess liquidity, however, and suggests that other private investments may come a cropper.
Today, we are sending you the BCA annual outlook for 2023. The report is an edited transcript of our recent conversation with Mr. X and his daughter, Ms. X, who are long-time BCA clients with whom we discuss the economic and financial market outlook for the next twelve months toward the end of each year.
Preliminary estimates suggest that durable goods orders unexpectedly firmed in October, accelerating to 1.0% m/m from 0.3% m/m previously, against milder growth expectations. New orders for transportation equipment grew 2.1% m/m and led this increase, though…