United States

Investors should stay defensive on recession risks until they subside meaningfully.

China's reopening is much more positive for the Chinese economy than it is for the rest of the world, as it will boost its domestic service sector activity and consumer spending much more than the industrial economy. A slowdown in Chinese industrial activity will put downward pressure on its demand for raw materials and energy, helping the world avoid another spike in inflation. Upgrade Macau casinos to overweight as the key beneficiaries of reopening. Off-shore TMT and bank shares face structural headwinds.

In response to lower energy prices and China’s reopening, European assets prices are outperforming. Will the ECB spoil the party?

In this week’s report, we look at whether global growth conditions remain conducive for a continued decline in the dollar. Our findings are mixed, while there are some economic green shoots, the overall growth picture remains weak. This argues for some consolidation of dollar losses in the near term.

While the housing downturn will be fairly mild in the US, it will be more severe abroad. Continue to favor bonds of countries whose housing fundamentals will limit rate hikes.