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United States

Challenges Ahead for Growth Equity and Late-Stage Venture Capital

We recommend investors to be cautious on Growth Equity and Late-Stage Venture Capital. The marginal dollar is currently best suited for Private Credit at the expense of Private Equity. Our next Special Report will examine why we prefer lenders of capital.

Private Markets & Alternatives
Deteriorating Outlook Weighs On US Consumer Sentiment
The US Conference Board’s Consumer Sentiment survey disappointed on Tuesday. The headline gauge unexpectedly fell to 101.3, below expectations it would remain unchanged at 104.0. The deterioration came on the back of a 5.8-point decline in the Expectations…
Daily Insights
US Capital Goods: Losing Their Appeal
The US Capital Goods industry was relatively resilient last year, ending 2022 roughly unchanged. In particular, a rally in the second half of the year led to a 20% gain vis-à-vis the S&P 500. Multiple long-term tailwinds contributed to this…
Daily Insights
Revisiting US Market Concentration
The S&P 500’s index concentration has been on investors’ radar for a while now. The chart above illustrates that the effective number of stocks in the S&P 500 has been declining steadily since its February 2014 peak of 143, eventually falling to 54…
Daily Insights
US Debt Ceiling: Taking It To The Limit

This Special Report discusses why there is a non-negligible risk that the US Congress will not reach a timely agreement to lift the debt ceiling this summer. It also discusses what will happen in bond markets in the lead up to the debt limit and in the case where a deal is not reached in time.

US Bond Strategy, Global Fixed Income Strategy, US Political Strategy by Ryan Swift, Matt Gertken
What The US Banks See
According to BCA Research’s US Investment Strategy service, the SIFI banks’ first quarter earnings confirm that an inflection in the business cycle is not just around the corner. The SIFI banks (BAC, C, JPM and WFC) reported their first quarter earnings…
Daily Insights
The Big Bank Beige Book, April 2023

The latest round of earnings calls from the systemically important banks was encouraging on balance. Households are still flush and still spending and consumer and business delinquencies remain remarkably low. Though a recession is surely coming, it doesn’t seem to be lurking just around the corner.

US Investment Strategy by Doug Peta
De-Dollarization: Fact Versus Fiction

In this week’s report, we look at the current de-dollarization discussion within the context of the USD’s near-term cyclical outlook, and whether it warrants a bullish or bearish stance.

Foreign Exchange Strategy by Chester Ntonifor
A Warning Sign For The US Labor Market
Last week’s US unemployment insurance claims data showed an increase in both initial and continuing claims. While weekly initial claims rose from 240k to 245k, the jump in continuing claims from 1.80 million to 1.87 million was more notable because it…
Daily Insights
US Inflation: What Are The Odds Of A Return To The Fed’s Target?
The rapid rise in US interest rates that has occurred since early 2022 has been the main driver of global risky asset prices over the past year. This quick tightening in monetary policy has occurred because of a surge in inflation to levels that are well…
Daily Insights

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