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United States

Policymakers Versus Markets: A Looming Standoff

Global growth will weaken in the coming months, yet monetary authorities worldwide will be reluctant to ease policy. This state of affairs foreshadows a clash between markets and policymakers in the months ahead. China’s recovery is losing steam. The latest divergence between Emerging Asian and LATAM currencies will not last.

Emerging Markets Strategy
The Enigma Of Oil Fundamentals

EM oil demand remains resilient and will continue to be propelled by global growth this year. Supply management by OPEC 2.0 and production discipline outside the coalition will be maintained, forcing inventories lower. Recent price weakness – largely reflecting political uncertainty – has pulled our 2023 Brent forecast down to $90/bbl (from $95/bbl); our 2024 forecast remains at $115/bbl.

Commodity & Energy Strategy
The Signal From The US Housing Market
US housing starts unexpectedly increased by 2.2% m/m in April – beating consensus estimates of a 1.4% m/m decline. The upside surprise follows Tuesday’s unanticipated 5-point jump in the NAHB homebuilder sentiment index to a 10-month high of 50. This marks…
Daily Insights
US Banks: Why Take A Risk?
According to BCA Research’s US Equity Strategy service, investors should stay underweight banks on a tactical investment horizon as the banking turmoil is far from over, and the industry’s profitability will be under pressure. The team has been underweight…
Daily Insights
US Retail Sales Rebound In April
The US Retail Sales report painted a resilient picture of American consumers in April. Although the 0.4% m/m increase in overall retail sales fell below consensus estimates of a 0.8% m/m rise, the details of the report surprised to the upside. In particular,…
Daily Insights
US Industrials Are Poised To Suffer
The S&P 500 Industrials index has gained 19% since its October 2022 lows and outperformed the S&P 500 gains of 15%. The sector has benefitted from American companies' efforts to "onshore" supply chains, but the deteriorating global industrial cycle…
Daily Insights
Empire State Survey Relapses In May
The New York Fed’s Empire State Survey sent a pessimistic signal about US manufacturing conditions in May. The headline index plunged by 42.6 points to -31.8 – the largest monthly decline since April 2020 and below expectations of a milder decrease to -3.9.…
Daily Insights
Will US Growth Stocks Continue Outperforming?
After a period of significant underperformance in 2022, US Growth stocks are regaining lost ground vis-à-vis Value. The S&P 500 Growth index has outperformed its Value counterpart by 7 percentage points since the start of the year. Notably, most of…
Daily Insights
Watch What They Do, Not What They Say
The US banking system remains unsettled over two months after the failures of Silicon Valley Bank. The two weeks following regulators’ seizure of First Republic (FRC) have featured dizzying swings in the stock prices of several regional banks as investors…
Daily Insights
ChatGPT And The Curse Of The Second Law

The conventional economic thinking about the likely impact of AI is misguided because it extrapolates linearly from what AI can do today to what it can do tomorrow. Just as the investment community and the broader public were blindsided by the exponential rise in Covid cases during the early days of the pandemic, they will be blindsided by how quickly AI transforms society and the economy.

US Equity Strategy by Peter Berezin

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