United States
According to BCA Research’s US Bond Strategy service, when the Fed’s interest rate and balance sheet policies are sending opposite signals, listen to interest rates. There seems to be some worry among investors that the coming increase in Treasury cash…
We are strategically bullish on the outlook of the energy sector. Domestic and external political constraints asserted themselves, restraining the most negative impulse against this sector by the Biden administration. Go long energy versus cyclicals (ex-tech).
Tuesday’s US housing starts and building permits update for May corroborates the upbeat signal on the housing market from the latest NAHB survey. Both starts and permits increased on a month-on-month basis and exceeded consensus estimates. The 1.63 million…
High levels of inflation distort cross-period comparisons of both earnings and sales and mask real earnings growth rates. Last year is a case in point: While in nominal terms, earnings (including Energy) have been contracting for only two quarters, in real…
This week’s report examines three potential catalysts that could push Treasury yields meaningfully higher within the next few months. We also consider the rebuild of the Treasury’s cash holdings and its implications for the Fed’s balance sheet policy and financial markets.
US Homebuilder confidence surprised to the upside on Monday, with the NAHB’s Housing Market Index jumping from 50 to 55 in June – beating expectations of 51. This marks the first time in 11 months that the index rises above the 50 level, signaling favorable…
After a brief decline, sugar prices have once again been climbing higher over the past two weeks. The price of the commodity is nearly back to its late-April high, bringing its year-to-date gain back up to 32%. While overbought conditions and stretched…
The 231bps rise in the 10-year Treasury yield last year weighed heavily on the relative performance of Growth stocks which lost 22.7% vis-à-vis the Value index in 2022. However, these dynamics have reversed this year with the rally in Growth stocks outpacing…
The S&P 500 is up 23% since October 2022 and is now trading at a punchy trailing price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 21 times. These metrics have naturally amplified bear calls on the market. The bear camp which has been caught on the wrong side of this…
As the S&P 500 nears our 4,500 target, we review the rationale behind the call to assess its merit.