United States

Although not our base case, there is a path for the US economy to avoid a recession over the next few years. We see the risks to stocks as tilted to the upside in the near term but to the downside over a 12-month horizon.

In this report, we evaluate the breakdown in the dollar and next moves in the DXY, based on fundamentals, historical precedents, and technical patterns over the last few years.

While excellent state & local government balance sheet health will remain a tailwind for muni returns, poor valuation prompts us to downgrade the sector from overweight to neutral.

In this report, we evaluate the breakdown in the dollar and next moves in the DXY, based on fundamentals, historical precedents, and technical patterns over the last few years.

In this report, we dissect which markets have broken out and which ones have not, and reflect what this entails for our global macro view. Also, we analyze how the S&P 500 has been taking its cues from a change in the inflation trend. Yet, inflation dynamics are complex, and a falling inflation rate does not mean that the inflation menace has been eliminated.