United States
Looking through month-to-month volatility, job growth’s underlying trend is stable and consistent with a flat-to-slightly higher unemployment rate.
An energy price spike caused by a Middle Eastern war almost guarantees that Republicans will lose control of the House, and the chance of a Democratic Senate victory increases from 35% to 40%.
Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for March 2026.
Equity market internals point to a rotation consistent with improving macro momentum. While market stress has been limited on the surface, internals suggest equities are searching for direction. After an extended period of Growth outperformance over Value…
Interest rate volatility is very low across developed market fixed income. Investors should maximize the carry in their portfolios to outperform in a low rate vol environment.
US assets have underperformed year-to-date, but BCA views differ on the tactical versus 12-month outlook. Since the start of the year, US markets have lagged the rest of the world, largely driven by the sell-off in software and AI-related stocks. The next…
Fed Governor Waller’s latest remarks underscore rising near-term hawkish risks, even as second-half cuts remain likely. Waller clarified his dissent in favor of a 25 bps cut at the last meeting and elaborated on his policy outlook. As one of the more dovish…
The president did not announce significant new tax cuts or economic stimulus.
The February Conference Board survey suggests improving labor-market perceptions, consistent with stabilizing growth momentum. The headline index rose to 91.2 from an upwardly revised 89.0 in January, beating estimates. Both present conditions and…
Easing US financial conditions reinforce near-term US data strength. US data has exceeded expectations since the start of the year, with positive economic surprises accelerating. At the same time, financial conditions have eased, as reflected in our proxy…