United States
Our FX strategists view the dollar as increasingly vulnerable in 2026, with structural headwinds building and cyclical supports fading. A multi-year downtrend is becoming more likely unless the US can sustain economic and equity outperformance without…
Investors expect more than one cut from the Fed in 2026. In this week’s poll, clients clearly answered that they expect the Fed to ease by more than the December dots suggest. Across the BCA website, LinkedIn and X, more than 70% of respondents answered that…
Our outlook for Fed policy in 2026.
Our US and Geopolitical strategists see rising demand for a third party in the US, but expect the two-party system to hold through the 2028 election. The macro backdrop will shape whether a left-wing populist emerges as the Democratic nominee. In the…
Maintain a long-duration stance and favor curve steepeners as disinflation remains well on track. US November CPI showed cooling inflation, but the report was heavily impacted by the government shutdown, with October data extrapolated in place of actual BLS…
Our US Investment strategists recommend maintaining benchmark equity exposure, despite weakening job gains, as the AI narrative may still drive a late-cycle melt-up. While recession risks are building, they argue against underweighting equities prematurely,…
Our Geopolitical strategists expect geopolitical risk to move sideways in 2026, as the US seeks a ceasefire with Russia and a tariff truce with China ahead of midterm elections likely to result in gridlock. The Trump administration’s foreign policy will…
Maintain an underweight in industrial commodities as flash PMIs confirm weak global growth momentum. December flash PMIs for developed markets pointed to subdued activity. The US composite slowed to 53 from 54.2, a six-month low, with both manufacturing and…
Maintain a modestly defensive allocation as retail sales show slowing consumption despite firmer underlying details. October US retail sales presented a mixed picture, with a second consecutive soft headline reading. Headline sales were flat, down from a…
Employment Data Point To Dovish Policy Surprises In 2026