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Market Update

Yields remain the force dominating the evolution of markets. A peak in yields would help European assets rebound, but the war in the Middle East could push higher energy prices, with negative consequences for Europe.

European Investment Strategy by Mathieu Savary
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Israel At War: Synopsis Of Causes And Effects

Investors underestimate the likelihood of the war in Israel spilling outside of Gaza, and engulfing wider swaths of the Middle East, endangering energy supplies. Stay overweight Energy and Aerospace & Defense.

US Equity Strategy by Irene Tunkel
US Consumer Inflation Expectations Unexpectedly Jump, Weighing On Sentiment
The preliminary release of the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment survey delivered a negative surprise on Friday. A bigger-than-anticipated drop pushed the headline sentiment index down to a five-month low of 63. Weaker-than-expected assessments of…
Daily Insights
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Will The Dollar Break Out Or Break Down?

This week's Insight gauges the potential of a dollar breakout or breakdown and suggests a few trade ideas.

Foreign Exchange Strategy by Chester Ntonifor
Shelter Costs Drive Hotter-Than-Anticipated US Inflation
The US CPI report shows inflation was higher than anticipated in September. Although the headline index decelerated from 0.6% m/m to 0.4% m/m, it is above expectations of 0.3% m/m. The annual rate of change remains at 3.7% y/y – also above consensus estimates…
Daily Insights
Is It Time To Buy Bonds?
According to BCA Research’s Counterpoint service, the sharp sell-off in long duration bonds (ticker TLT) has reached the collapsed 130-day complexity that has preceded several turning-points in the last few years. This suggests a two-thirds probability of a…
Daily Insights
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Bonds Are Great Again

US monetary policy is restrictive, as evidenced by a falling jobs-workers gap. The reason that unemployment has not risen is because labor demand still exceeds supply. That will change in the second half of 2024 when the US economy succumbs to recession. Investors should increasingly favor bonds over stocks.

Global Investment Strategy by Peter Berezin
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Get Ready For The Long Pause

Comments on recent Fedspeak, bond market moves and this morning’s CPI report.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
Hotter-Than-Anticipated US PPI
The US PPI report came in hotter-than-anticipated in September. Although the headline index decelerated from 0.7% m/m to 0.5% m/m, it remains above expectations of a more pronounced moderation to 0.3% m/m. In particular, a 3.3% m/m increase in energy prices…
Daily Insights
FOMC Minutes: Most Still See Upside Risks To Inflation
The minutes of the September FOMC meeting confirmed that the Fed intends to maintain restrictive monetary policy for longer. Although inflation has been moderating, participants continue to view it as unacceptably high and emphasized that they remain…
Daily Insights

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