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United States

Luxury Top-End Still Holding Up
Although luxury goods producers are facing headwinds, the top end is still holding up well. Hermes, which represents the top-end of the luxury sector, reported a 16% increase in sales in the third quarter, of which half came from higher prices of its…
Daily Insights
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US – OPEC 2.0 Price Collar: $79/bbl Floor, $130/bbl Cap

The US and core OPEC 2.0 are – wittingly or not – laying the groundwork for a price band with a floor and cap on oil prices – at $79/bbl and $130/bbl, respectively – “at least” to May 2024. This accommodates multiple goals for both. To meaningfully support policy, the US would need to scale up purchases to refill its SPR. We remain long the XOP and COMT ETFs for direct exposure to energy E+P equities and commodities.

Commodity & Energy Strategy by Ashwin Shyam
Soaring Mortgage Rate Weighs On US Housing Affordability
The Atlanta Fed's Home Ownership Affordability Monitor (HOAM) – which gauges a median-income households' ability to absorb annual costs related to owning a median-priced home – dropped to a fresh record low in August. At 67.3, the index is significantly below…
Daily Insights
Geopolitical Risks Provide A Tailwind For Gold
The price of gold has rallied by 9.2% since October 5, reaching a 5-month high by Wednesday's close. Notably, this latest rally comes despite real bond yields having been trending higher for the past two weeks. Given that higher bond yields typically weigh…
Daily Insights
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Short-Term Risks, Long-Term Value

This week’s report contains an update on the Treasury curve’s recent bear-steepening trend and a look at different measures of long-maturity Treasury valuation.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
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BCA Global Central Bank Monitors: Applications To Fixed Income & FX Investing

In this Special Report, we introduce two strategies that use our Central Bank Monitors for global fixed income country allocations and currency trades. We find that using the Monitors in country selection helps improve the performance of a developed markets government bond portfolio. The CBMs can also help substantially minimize the drawdowns on a standard FX carry strategy.

Global Fixed Income Strategy, Foreign Exchange Strategy by Robert Timper, Deborah Acri, Artem Sakhbiev
The US Remains Economically More Resilient Than Its Peers
The flash PMI estimates from S&P Global delivered a mixed message about economic conditions across DM economies in October. The Eurozone composite index unexpectedly fell from 47.2 to a nearly three-year low of 46.5 on the back of surprise declines in…
Daily Insights
US Bonds: Short-Term Risks, Long-Term Value
The 10-year US Treasury yield briefly moved above 5% earlier this week before dipping back down. While we can’t rule out another jump back above 5% in the coming weeks, the recent bond selloff has created a good deal of long-run value in US Treasuries. In…
Daily Insights
US Equal Weighted Equities Have Given Up YTD Gains
This year's rally in US equities has for the most part been narrow in breadth. The 19.5% increase in the S&P 500's price index in the first seven months of the year exceeds the equal weighted index's 9.5% gain over the same period. Since then, the S&P…
Daily Insights
What The US Banks See
BCA Research’s US Investment Strategy service studied the SIFIs’ earnings calls for insights into borrower performance, lender willingness, liquidity and the actions and intentions of households and businesses.  Nothing in the banks’ commentary…
Daily Insights

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