Sorry, you need to enable JavaScript to visit this website.
Skip to main content
Skip to main content

United States

The Treasury Quarterly Refunding Announcement
According to BCA Research’s US Bond Strategy service, while economic growth will be a much more important driver of Treasury yields going forward than supply, the Treasury department did make several announcements on Wednesday that will mitigate any negative…
Daily Insights
f_image_20231102_125440.PNG
Conversations With Ms. Mea: Beware Of Widening Cracks

In financial systems, cracks typically begin on the periphery and then expand to the center. Hence, the ruptures on the fringes often act as an early warning. These fissures tend to widen and spread to the core, causing a breakdown in the S&P 500. Investors should consider buying US Treasurys aggressively when the S&P 500 slips below 4,000.

Emerging Markets Strategy by Arthur Budaghyan
US Manufacturing ISM Delivers A Somber Message
The US ISM Manufacturing PMI delivered a disappointing update on factory activity in October. The headline index unexpectedly fell to 46.7, surprising consensus estimates it would remain unchanged at 49.0. In particular, a sharp 4.4-point decline in the…
Daily Insights
The Fed Is Proceeding Carefully
As expected, the Fed stood pat at its Wednesday meeting, maintaining the target for the fed funds rate at 5.25-5.50%. The minimal changes made to the Fed Statement were to emphasize the strong pace of economic activity in Q3, to characterize job gains as…
Daily Insights
f_image_20231101_170937.PNG
Did Policymakers Just Solidify The Cyclical Peak In Yields?

Our reaction to today’s FOMC meeting and the Treasury’s Quarterly Refunding Announcement.

US Bond Strategy, Global Fixed Income Strategy by Ryan Swift
f_image_20231101_114507.PNG
Worrying Uptrends In Inflation Expectations Are Being Masked

The fundamental component of long-term inflation expectations has climbed to its highest level since 2008 in both the US and the euro area. This means that both the Fed and the ECB will need to engineer inflation to undershoot 2 percent for an extended period if they are to maintain their 2 percent inflation targets. We explain what this means for investment strategy over the coming 6-12 months. Plus, we pinpoint what to focus on in this Friday’s US jobs report. And we identify food and beverages (PBJ) and the Indonesian rupiah (IDR/USD) as excellent rebound candidates.

Counterpoint by Dhaval Joshi
F_IMAGE_20231031_133921.PNG
Monthly Portfolio Update: The Cure For High Rates Is High Rates

High interest rates will eventually cause growth to slow. Signs of stress are already starting to show. Stay cautiously positioned.

Global Asset Allocation by Garry Evans
US ECI Growth Unexpectedly Accelerates
The US Employment Cost Index (ECI) unexpectedly accelerated in Q3, rising by 1.1% q/q versus anticipations the pace of increase would remain unchanged at 1.0% q/q. A pickup in wages and salaries drove the increase. On an annual basis, the ECI slowed from 4.5%…
Daily Insights
EUR/USD: Potential For Some Near-Term Upside
The Eurozone's October inflation release confirmed the signal from the German and Spanish reports that price pressures are moderating. CPI inflation softened from 4.3% y/y to 2.9% y/y (below expectations of 3.1% y/y) while the monthly rate of change eased to…
Daily Insights
Will US Stocks Retain Their YTD Lead?
In a recent Insight we highlighted that the S&P 500's year-to-date rally is narrow in breadth and that the equal weighted index has erased all its year-to-date gains. This is also true in the case of the Euro Area where the MSCI price index is still up by…
Daily Insights

Related Topics

Australia Canada Europe Japan New Zealand