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United States

On The Lookout For An Opportunity To Increase Duration Exposure
US Treasuries have been selling off over the past two months as investors downgrade the odds of an imminent start to the Fed’s easing cycle. Naturally, a question facing investors is whether current levels constitute a good opportunity to increase duration…
Daily Insights
US Health Care Will Outperform As The Economy Slows
The Health Care sector is among the best performing US equity sectors so far this year. Its 6.2% year-to-date price gain exceeds the S&P 500’s 4.3% increase and is second only to Communication Services. This marks a shift in dynamics from the earlier part…
Daily Insights
Biden Avoids “Lame Duck” Status… For Now
According to BCA Research’s US Political Strategy service, Biden’s approval rating may have bottom, but it faces limited upside. Speculation about Biden stepping down has been rife since the special counsel report highlighting his old age. There is no…
Daily Insights
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Has Biden's Approval Bottomed?

Democrats remain favored for reelection in 2024, which implies gridlock and policy status quo in 2025. That is not negative for stocks in the near term. However, economic, political, and geopolitical risks will escalate from here, causing volatility.

US Political Strategy by Matt Gertken, Jesse Anak Kuri
Sentiment Is Bullish Despite Concerns About Inflation
The S&P 500 forged a new all-time high last Thursday and ended the week with a 4.9% year-to-date gain, extending the rally that started in late-October. Interestingly, the recent increase comes even though investors have priced out a Fed rate cut in March…
Daily Insights
Will Core Goods Prices Continue Declining?
Much of the focus of investors concerned about lingering price pressures has been on services prices. There is good reason for that. Even though core CPI inflation remains relatively elevated at 3.9% y/y in January, core goods prices fell by 0.3% y/y and are…
Daily Insights
European Tech Stocks Could Outperform Their US Counterparts
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, European tech stocks could outperform their US counterparts in the last leg of the rally. The tech sector is in a bubble in advanced economies. While it is logical to expect a pronounced…
Daily Insights
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The 1999 Risk

Signs that we are entering the last phase of a bubble are building up. Can European equities benefit from a new tech mania?

European Investment Strategy by Mathieu Savary
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Recap Of Q4-2023 Earnings: What Are Companies Telling Us?

Reported earnings for Q4-2023 were rather underwhelming and prone to issues that we have identified over the past few months: Growth is concentrated in just a few sectors and companies, while the profitability of a broad swath of the equity market is under pressure from disinflation and sticky wages. Consumers are still spending, but less enthusiastically than before, while a switch from spending on services to spending on goods is in its very early innings. Downgrade Consumer Staples to neutral.

US Equity Strategy by Irene Tunkel
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Elevated Cash Balances May Not Be A Big Deal

Households have ramped up their cash holdings since the end of 2019, but the absence of an empirical link between cash and consumption leads us to believe that we’ve modestly overestimated the risk of consumer-driven overheating.

US Investment Strategy by Doug Peta

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