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United States

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Rangebound Euro

EUR/USD collapsed in the wake of last week’s hotter-than-expected US CPI report. Is this pessimism warranted and will the euro’s trading range that has prevailed since 2023 breakdown?

European Investment Strategy by Mathieu Savary
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GFIS Model Bond Portfolio Q1/24 Review & Outlook: Growth Shock

In this report, we present our quarterly review of our Model Bond Portfolio. The anti-growth bias of the portfolio allocations hurt the portfolio performance in Q1/2024 as global growth surprised to the upside. However, we anticipate some recovery of the underperformance in our base case scenario for the next six months.

Global Fixed Income Strategy by Deborah Acri
US Initial Claims Fall Below Expectations
US Initial jobless claims declined from 222 thousand to 211 thousand in the week ending April 5, below expectations of a less pronounced decrease to 215 thousand. On a seasonally unadjusted basis, the number increased to 214 thousand. This initial claims…
Daily Insights
EM Small Caps Bucking the Trend
US, European and Japanese small caps have underperformed their large cap counterparts by 22.6%, 15.3% and 10.1% respectively since 2021. They now face conflicting forces. On the one hand, they are extremely beaten down and cheap, potentially offering a good…
Daily Insights
The Mel Rule Suggests A US Recession Is Baked In The Cake
According to BCA Research’s Global Investment Strategy service, a comprehensive review of leading US labor market indicators reveals that most are now flashing red. This includes the “Mel rule,” a refinement of the better known but less timely Sahm rule. …
Daily Insights
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The Mel Rule Says A US Recession Is Already Baked In The Cake

Contrary to conventional wisdom, most leading indicators suggest that the US labor market is weakening, including our very own “Mel rule.” After being overweight stocks last year, we moved to neutral at the start of 2024, and are now putting equities on downgrade watch with the expectation of shifting them to underweight later this year.

Global Investment Strategy by Peter Berezin
US Headline PPI Softer Than Expected
Thursday’s US Produce Price Index report for March shows headline PPI came in below expectations on both a month-over-month (0.2%) and annual (2.1%) basis. Meanwhile, PPI ex food and energy came in at 0.2% m/m (in line with expectations), and 2.4% y/y(above…
Daily Insights
ECB: Mark Your Calendar For June
As expected, the Governing Council of the ECB kept interest rates unchanged on Thursday. In its statement, the ECB reiterated that most measures of underlying inflation were easing, wage growth was moderating, and firms were absorbing the rise in labor costs…
Daily Insights
Is Everybody Really Bullish Bonds?
Treasurys have sold off substantially since the beginning of the year – the result of stickier-than-anticipated inflation and the repricing of Fed interest rate expectations. Some commentators have warned that there is scope for this selloff to continue amid…
Daily Insights
Currency Implications Of A Dovish BoC
In terms of interest rate bets, markets are now roughly neutral on whether the Fed or Bank of Canada move the most in the next 12 months. BCA Research’s Foreign Exchange Strategy service’s bias is that it will be the BoC (with more cuts).  Thus, a…
Daily Insights

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