UK

Highlights Global Duration Strategy: Global bond yields continue to move higher, driven by rising inflation expectations and falling investor risk aversion. With global interest rates still not at levels that will restrict growth or draw capital away from booming equity markets, the path of least resistance for yields remains upward. Maintain a below-benchmark overall portfolio duration stance, with a bearish curve steepening bias in the U.S. and core Europe. U.K. Gilts: The momentum in the U.K. economy is slowing, as a weaker consumer, slower housing activity, and softer capital spending are offsetting a pickup in exports. With the inflationary impulse from the 2016 plunge in the Pound now fading, and with Brexit uncertainty weighing on business confidence, the Bank of England will struggle to raise rates in 2018. Stay overweight Gilts. Feature Revisiting Our Duration Strategy After The Rise In Yields Global government bond markets have started 2018 in a grumpy mood. The price return on the overall Barclays Global Treasury index is already down -0.6% so far in January, and yields are up for almost every country and maturity bucket within the developed market universe. Only longer-dated Peripheral European debt (Italy, Spain, Portugal, even Greece) has seen lower yields month-to-date, as the powerful growth upturn in the Euro Area has resulted in sovereign credit upgrades and narrowing spreads to core European bonds. The global sell-off has been led by the U.S., with the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield climbing all the way to 2.66% last week, already surpassing the 2016 high seen last March. Rising inflation expectations are the biggest culprit, with the 10-year TIPS breakeven rate climbing to 2.07%, the highest level since 2014. Chart of the WeekNo Good News For Bonds Right Now The relentless surge in global stock markets - driven by faster worldwide economic growth and an absence of volatility - is also helping fuel the bearishness in government bond markets. The economic growth momentum is showing no signs of abating. The IMF just raised its global growth forecast for both 2018 and 2019 to 3.9% in both years - the fastest pace since 2011 - largely because of the impact of the U.S. tax cuts but also because of much faster expected growth in Europe.1 The IMF noted that "the cyclical rebound could prove stronger in the near term as the pickup in activity and easier financial conditions reinforce each other." We could not agree more. With robust growth pushing a majority of economies to operate beyond full employment, and with financial conditions remaining highly accommodative, global bond markets are now pricing in both higher inflation expectations and less accommodative monetary policy (Chart of the Week). While we only expect actual rate increases in the U.S. and Canada in 2018, the pressures on global central banks to respond to the coordinated growth upturn with hawkish talk will keep government bond markets on the defensive - especially if global inflation rates are moving up at the same time. Diminishing demand for government bonds from recently reliable sources may also act to push up yields in the months ahead. A reduced pace of asset purchases from the European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of Japan (BoJ), combined with the Fed reducing the reinvestments of its maturing Treasury holdings, means that the private sector must now absorb a greater share of bond issuance, on the margin. In the U.S. in particular, the biggest swing factor for the Treasury market could end up being the retail investor. Households have been notably risk-averse in the years since the Great Financial Crisis, keeping relatively high allocations to fixed income and relatively low allocations to equities after suffering such steep losses in the 2008 crash. Those attitudes are changing, however, with the U.S. equity market continuing to hit new all-time highs amid increased media coverage of the rally (as well as the bullish Tweets from the White House taking credit for it). The latest University of Michigan U.S. consumer confidence survey showed that the expected probability of another year of rising stock prices is now at the highest level (66%) in the fifteen years that question was asked. U.S. investment advisors are also very optimistic, with the Investors' Intelligence bull/bear ratio back to the highest level since 1987! (Chart 2) Yet actual equity returns over the past three years have lagged those seen during periods of elevated investor sentiment, like in 1987, 2005 and 2014 (Chart 2). What is missing now is a big surge of retail investor money into equities that can fuel the next leg of the equity rally, particularly through mutual funds and ETFs. Chart 2The Bond-Bearish Equity Party##BR##Is Just Getting Started This is starting to happen. The rolling 12-month total of net flows into U.S. equity mutual funds and ETFs is about to accelerate into positive territory for the first time since 2012, according to data from the Investment Company Institute (3rd panel). This could soon pose a problem for U.S. bond markets as, since 2008, there has been a reliable negative correlation between U.S. retail flows into equity funds and flows into fixed income funds, especially at major turning points (bottom panel). For example, after that 2012 bottom in net equity flows, the rolling total of net flows into bond funds collapsed from over $400bn to zero in a span of 18 months, with the vast majority of the outflow from bonds going into equities. An exodus of U.S. retail investors from fixed income would be a major problem for bond markets, especially at a time when net Treasury issuance is expected to increase due to wider fiscal deficits and the Fed will be buying fewer bonds as it begins to unwind its massive balance sheet. Other buyers like commercial banks and global reserve fund managers can pick up some of the slack if the retail bid fades from U.S. Treasuries. However, in an environment of strong global growth, rising inflation and more hawkish central banks, it may require higher yields to entice those buyers to ramp up their allocations. In the near-term, the next wave of global bond-bearish news will have to come from upside surprises in inflation, not growth. The Citi Global Economic Data Surprise index - which has historically correlated with swings in global bond yields - is now at elevated levels which should raise the odds of data disappointments as growth expectations get revised up (Chart 3). The Citi Global Inflation Data Surprise index, however, remains just below zero after last year's plunge, but is showing signs of stabilizing (bottom panel). U.S. inflation is already starting to bottom out, but Euro Area core inflation has been underwhelming of late. It will likely take a rise in the latter to trigger the next move higher in global yields, as the market will begin to more aggressively price in less accommodative monetary policy from the ECB. For now, U.S. Treasuries are driving the path of yields, with the "leadership" of the bond bear market expected to switch to Europe later on in 2018. In terms of our recommend duration strategy and country allocations, we are sticking with our current positions which are finally beginning to move in favor of our forecasts (Chart 4): Chart 3The Next Leg Higher In Global Yields##BR##Must Be Driven By Inflation Surprises Chart 4Our Recommended##BR##Country & Curve Allocations Underweights to countries where we expect central banks to hike rates (U.S., Canada) or more openly discuss a tapering of asset purchases (Germany, France). Overweights to countries where we expect no change in policy rates (U.K., Australia) or only modest changes to asset purchase programs (Japan). Positioning for steeper yield curves in countries where growth is strong, economies are at or beyond full employment, but where inflation expectations remain far enough below central bank targets to prevent policymakers from turning more hawkish faster than expected (U.S., Germany, Japan). Bottom Line: Global bond yields continue to move higher, driven by rising inflation expectations and falling investor risk aversion. With global interest rates still not at levels that will restrict growth or draw capital away from booming equity markets, the path of least resistance for yields remains upward. Maintain a below-benchmark overall portfolio duration stance, with a bearish curve steepening bias in the U.S. and core Europe. U.K. Gilts: The BoE's Hands Are Tied In our final report of 2017, we updated our recommended allocations in our Model Bond Portfolio based on the key views stemming from the 2018 BCA Outlook.2 We upgraded our country allocation to U.K. Gilts to overweight, primarily as a "defensive" position within a portfolio positioned for an expected rise in global bond yields. That may sound surprising given the current elevated level of inflation and low unemployment rate in the U.K. Yet our view is based on the notion that the Bank of England (BoE) will have a very difficult time trying to raise interest rates at all in 2018 when other major global central banks are likely to take a more hawkish turn. The main reason that the BoE will be unable to do much on the interest rate front is that the U.K. economy is likely to slow in the coming quarters. The OECD leading economic indicator is decelerating steadily, and is pointing to a real GDP growth rate below 2% in 2018 (Chart 5). The updated IMF forecast for the U.K. calls for growth to only reach 1.5% in both 2018 and 2019. The biggest factors that will weigh on growth will be a sluggish consumer and softer capex. Household consumption growth has already been slowing since early 2017, driven by diminishing consumer confidence (Chart 6, top panel). High realized inflation which has sapped the purchasing power of U.K. workers who have not seen matching increases in wages, is weighing on confidence (3rd panel). Consumers were able to maintain a decent pace of spending during a period of stagnant real income growth by drawing down on savings, but that looks to be tapped out now with the saving rate down to a 19-year low of 5.5% (bottom panel). Chart 5U.K. Growth Set To Slow Chart 6The U.K. Consumer Looks Tapped Out Making matters worse, U.K. consumers are not seeing much of a wealth effect from the housing market. The December 2017 readings of the year-over-year growth rate of U.K. house prices from the Halifax and Nationwide house prices came in at 1.1% and 2.5% respectively (Chart 7, top panel). In addition, the net balance of national house price expectations from the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) survey has steadily declined since mid-2016 and now sits just above zero (i.e. equal number of respondents expecting higher prices and falling prices). The same indicator for London was a staggering -54% in November 2017. U.K. homeowners have had to take a lot of hits over the past couple of years. A 2016 hike in the stamp duty for second homes and buy-to-let properties prompted a plunge in more "speculative" property transactions. The squeeze on real household incomes that has damaged consumer spending has also made homes less affordable, even with very low mortgage rates. Most importantly, the 2016 Brexit vote and subsequent uncertainty over the U.K.'s future relationship with Europe has placed an enormous cloud over housing demand - both from potential reduced immigration to the U.K. and businesses and jobs potentially relocating to European Union countries. The Brexit uncertainty is also weighing on U.K. business investment spending. U.K. capital expenditure growth slowed to 4.3% year-over-year in nominal terms in Q3 2017, and is even lower in real terms (Chart 8, top panel). Capex is generally import-intensive, and the rise in import costs due to the depreciation of the Pound after the 2016 Brexit vote raised the cost of investment. Chart 7No Growth In##BR##U.K. Housing Chart 8Brexit Gloom Trumps Export##BR##Boom For U.K. Companies This explains why U.K. capital spending has lagged even with manufacturing indicators in decent shape, such as the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) survey which shows the highest readings on total industrial orders and export orders since 1988 and 1995, respectively (2nd panel). Yet non-financial credit growth stalled out in the latter half of 2017, while the CBI survey of business optimism has turned into negative territory. Brexit uncertainties are clearly trumping strong export demand, thus U.K. capital investment is likely to remain sluggish in 2018 even with robust global growth. With U.K. economic growth likely to slow in 2018, the lingering problem of high inflation should start to fade. Already, both headline and core CPI inflation have stabilized, with the latter actually drifting a touch lower in the latter half of 2017 (Chart 9). The small gap between the two can be explained by the rise in global oil prices seen over the past year. The impact of oil on U.K. inflation expectations is relatively modest compared to other countries with much lower realized inflation rates, as we discussed in last week's Weekly Report.3 What is far more relevant is the path of British pound. The 16% plunge in the trade-weighted sterling index after the 2016 Brexit vote was a major reason why U.K. realized inflation blew through the BoE's 2% target last year. The currency has since stabilized at a depressed level and traded in a relatively narrow range in 2017. The trade-weighted index is now 3% above year-ago-levels, which should help U.K. inflation rates drift lower in the next 6-12 months - especially if U.K. growth underwhelms at the same time. Already, the more stable currency has allowed the inflation rates of import prices and producer prices to fall sharply last year (bottom panel), which should soon start to feed through into overall inflation rates. Lower realized inflation would be a welcome boost for the spending power of U.K. households and businesses, but will likely be dwarfed by the impact of oil prices in the near term. More importantly, the slowing momentum of economic growth, now fueled more by Brexit uncertainty than high inflation, will limit the BoE's ability to continue normalizing the very low level of U.K. interest rates. Our 12-month U.K. discounter shows that markets are pricing in 25bps of rate hikes over the next twelve months (Chart 10). The forward path of interest rates shown in the U.K. Overnight Index Swaps curve suggests that the hike could come by October. That is unlikely to happen given the slump in leading economic indicators, and peaking in currency-fueled inflation, currently underway. Chart 9Currency-Fueled U.K. Inflation Is Peaking Out Chart 10Stay Overweight U.K. Gilts A stand-pat BoE, combined with more stable and potentially falling U.K. inflation, will limit the ability for U.K. Gilt yields to rise by as much as we are expecting in the U.S., and even core Europe, over the next 6-12 months. Gilts have become a relative safe haven within a global bond bear market in the developed markets, with a yield beta of around 0.5 to U.S. Treasuries and German government bonds. This has already allowed Gilts to outperform the Barclays Global Treasury index (in currency-hedged terms) since the most recent cyclical low in global bond yields last September (bottom panel). We continue to expect Gilts to outperform in 2018. Stay overweight. Bottom Line: The momentum in the U.K. economy is slowing, as a weaker consumer, slower housing activity, and softer capital spending are offsetting a pickup in exports. With the inflationary impulse from the 2016 plunge in the Pound now fading, and with Brexit uncertainty weighing on business confidence, the Bank of England will struggle to raise rates in 2018. Stay overweight Gilts. Robert Robis, Senior Vice President Global Fixed Income Strategy rrobis@bcaresearch.com Ray Park, Research Analyst Ray@bcaresearch.com 1 http://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2018/01/11/world-economic-outlook-update-january-2018 2 Please see BCA Global Fixed Income Strategy Weekly Report, "Our Model Bond Allocation In 2018: A Tale Of Two Halves", dated December 19th 2017, available at gfis.bcaresearch.com. 3 Please see BCA Global Fixed Income Strategy Weekly Report, "The Importance Of Oil", dated January 16th 2018, available at gfis.bcaresearch.com. Recommendations Duration Regional Allocation Spread Product Tactical Trades Yields & Returns Global Bond Yields Historical Returns

Highlights Should the U.S. 10-year T-bond yield approach 3% it would be a red flag, and a trigger to downgrade equities. Equity investors should stay overweight defensive-heavy Switzerland and Denmark. Contrary to what the consensus is expecting, global growth will lose steam in the first half of 2018. EUR/USD will continue to trend higher through 2018 as long-term interest rate differentials converge further. The multi-year prognosis for GBP/USD is higher. U.K. parliamentary arithmetic simply does not support a hard Brexit. Furthermore, a hard Brexit would require either a North/South or East/West hard border in Ireland, which will be politically impossible to deliver. Feature A happy and prosperous 2018 to you all! In this first report of the year, we describe some investment outcomes in 2017 that at first glance seemed odd or unexpected; but that on deeper reflection provide valuable insights for 2018. Some of these insights deviate substantially from the BCA house view. Bonds Became More Risky Than Equities The first oddity of 2017 concerns the 'drawdowns' suffered by bonds and equities. A drawdown is defined as an investment's peak to trough decline. In 2017, the odd thing was that the drawdowns suffered by government bonds - a supposedly safe asset-class - were equal to or worse than those suffered by equities - a supposedly risky asset-class (Chart of the Week, Chart I-2 and Chart I-3). Chart of the WeekBonds Suffered Worse Drawdowns Than Equities Chart I-2Bonds Suffered Worse Drawdowns Than Equities Chart I-3Bonds Suffered Worse Drawdowns Than Equities Contrary to classical theory, empirical evidence now proves that investors do not define an investment's risk in terms of its volatility, the fluctuations of its return around a mean. Instead, investors define risk as the ratio of large and sudden drawdowns versus potential gains. This unattractive asymmetry in an investment's return is technically known as negative skew. And it is as compensation for this negative skew that investors demand an excess return, the so-called 'risk premium'. Significantly, at low bond yields, the mathematics of bond returns necessarily means that their negative skew increases. The risk of large and sudden drawdowns rises while the prospect for price gains diminishes. But if bond risk becomes 'equity-like', it follows that equities' prospective long-term return should become 'bond-like'. Meaning, equities should no longer offer a meaningful risk premium over bonds. Is this the case? According to my colleague Martin Barnes, BCA Chief Economist, the answer appears to be yes - at least in certain major markets. In BCA's Outlook 2018, Martin projects that from current valuations U.S. equities are set to deliver a total nominal return of 2.6% a year to 2028 - almost indistinguishable from the 2.5% a year that a U.S. 10-year T-bond will deliver over the same period. But the mathematics of bond pricing tells us that the negative skew on bond returns fully disappears when a yield approaches 3%. At which point the risk of bonds once again declines to become 'bond-like', and the required return on equities should once again rise to become 'equity-like'. This higher required return would necessarily require today's equity prices to drop, perhaps substantially. Admittedly in Europe there is a bigger gap between the expected returns from equities and bonds than there is in the U.S. The trouble is that global capital markets move together and a chain is only as strong as its weakest link. Hence, one lesson for 2018 is that investors should downgrade equities to neutral should the U.S. 10-year T-bond yield approach 3%. In this event, investors should redeploy the funds into U.S. T-bonds, because any substantial adjustment in risk-asset prices would trigger supportive flows into haven bonds, reversing the spike in yields. Euro/Dollar Hit A 3-Year High EUR/USD ended 2017 touching 1.21, a 3-year high. At first glance, this might seem odd given that the ECB has committed to maintaining its zero and negative interest rate policy for at least another year while the Federal Reserve has already hiked interest rates five times. But EUR/USD is not tracking short-term rate differentials. It is tracking long-term rate differentials, and EUR/USD at a 3-year high is fully consistent with the 30-year T-bond/German bund yield spread converging to its narrowest for several years (Chart I-4). Chart I-4Further Convergence In Long-Term Interest Rate Differentials Will Support EUR/USD Where will this yield spread go from here? Let's consider both sides of the spread. On the ECB side, policy is at the realistic limit of ultra-looseness, so policy rate expectations cannot go significantly lower, but they can go higher. On the Federal Reserve side, long-term policy rate expectations are not far from our upper bound of the 'high 2s' at which risk-assets become vulnerable to a sell-off, perhaps substantial. So these interest rate expectations cannot go sustainably higher, but they can go lower. Considering this strong asymmetry, the most likely outcome is that the 30-year T-bond/German bund yield spread will continue to converge. The upshot is that EUR/USD will continue to trend higher through 2018. No Connection Between Economic Outperformance And Stock Market Outperformance Chart I-5The Eurostoxx50 Underperformed Even Though##br## The Euro Area Economy Outperformed 2017 proved that there is no positive correlation between relative economic performance and relative equity market performance. For example, the euro area was one of the best performing developed economies, yet the Eurostoxx50 was one of the worst performing stock market indexes (Chart I-5). This seems odd, until you realise that major stock market indexes are dominated by multinational rather than domestic stocks. And that when stock markets have vastly different sector weightings, the sector effect completely swamps the domestic economy effect. Therefore the first decision for international equity investors should never be which regions to own. The first decision should always be which sectors to own, and above all whether to tilt to cyclicals or defensives. The regional and country allocation then just drops out automatically. At the moment, our mini-cycle framework for global growth suggests tilting to defensives rather than to cyclicals. Global growth experiences remarkably consistent - and therefore predictable - 'mini-cycles', with half-cycle lengths averaging 8 months. As the current mini-upswing started last May we can infer that it is likely to end at some point in early 2018 (Chart I-6 and Chart I-7). So one surprise could be that global growth will lose steam in the first half of 2018 rather than in the second half - contrary to what the consensus is expecting. Chart I-6The Current Mini-Upswing##br## Is Long In The Tooth Chart I-7China Has Driven The Global 6-Month##br## Credit Impulse Higher We will provide further ammunition for our mini-cycle thesis in next week's report. In the meantime, we will leave you with one ramification of paring back equity exposure to cyclicals and redeploying to defensives. Stay overweight defensive-heavy Switzerland and Denmark. Realpolitik Will Prevent A Hard Brexit For the FTSE100, the paradox is that its relative performance is negatively correlated with relative economic performance. When the U.K. economy outperforms, the FTSE100 underperforms. And vice-versa (Chart I-8). Chart I-8FTSE 100 Relative Performance Is The Inverse ##br##Of U.K. Economic Relative Performance The simple explanation is that FTSE100 multinational sales and profits tend to be denominated in dollars and euros, whereas the FTSE100 index is denominated in pounds. The upshot is that an outperforming U.K. economy weighs on the U.K. stock market because a strengthening pound diminishes the FTSE100's multi-currency profits in pound terms. And vice-versa. Compared to a year ago, investors can be more optimistic about the long-term prospects for the U.K. economy and the pound (and therefore expect long-term underperformance from the FTSE100). This is because after the unexpectedly disastrous 2017 election for Theresa May, the parliamentary arithmetic simply does not support a hard Brexit. Furthermore, a hard Brexit would require either a North/South or East/West hard border in Ireland, which will be politically impossible to deliver. The constraints that come from this realpolitik means that Brexit's endpoint will retain much of the current trading relationship with the EU, albeit the journey to that eventual destination is likely to be a wild roller coaster ride. Therefore, the multi-year prognosis for GBP/USD is higher. But investors who want to optimize their timing into 'cable' can wait for one of the inevitable roller coaster dips in 2018. Dhaval Joshi, Senior Vice President Chief European Investment Strategist dhaval@bcaresearch.com Fractal Trading Model* We are delighted to say that three of our recent trades quickly hit their profit targets: short bitcoin 29%, long silver 4.5% and long NZD/USD 3%. Against this, short Nikkei/long Eurostoxx50 hit its 3% stop-loss. This week's trade recommendation is to go short palladium. Set a profit target of 6% with a symmetrical stop-loss. This leaves us with three open trades. Chart I-9 For any investment, excessive trend following and groupthink can reach a natural point of instability, at which point the established trend is highly likely to break down with or without an external catalyst. An early warning sign is the investment's fractal dimension approaching its natural lower bound. Encouragingly, this trigger has consistently identified countertrend moves of various magnitudes across all asset classes. * For more details please see the European Investment Strategy Special Report "Fractals, Liquidity & A Trading Model," dated December 11, 2014, available at eis.bcaresearch.com The post-June 9, 2016 fractal trading model rules are: When the fractal dimension approaches the lower limit after an investment has been in an established trend it is a potential trigger for a liquidity-triggered trend reversal. Therefore, open a countertrend position. The profit target is a one-third reversal of the preceding 13-week move. Apply a symmetrical stop-loss. Close the position at the profit target or stop-loss. Otherwise close the position after 13 weeks. Use the position size multiple to control risk. The position size will be smaller for more risky positions. Fractal Trading Model Recommendations Equities Bond & Interest Rates Currency & Other Positions Closed Fractal Trades Trades Closed Trades Asset Performance Currency & Bond Equity Sector Country Equity Indicators Bond Yields Chart II-1Indicators To Watch - Bond Yields Chart II-2Indicators To Watch - Bond Yields Chart II-3Indicators To Watch - Bond Yields Chart II-4Indicators To Watch - Bond Yields Interest Rate Chart II-5Indicators To Watch##br## - Interest Rate Expectations Chart II-6Indicators To Watch##br## - Interest Rate Expectations Chart II-7Indicators To Watch##br## - Interest Rate Expectations Chart II-8Indicators To Watch##br## - Interest Rate Expectations

Dear Client, We are sending you this last issue of the year, a lighter fare than usual, highlighting 10 charts we find important. The first two charts tackle two of the key economic questions of the day: U.S. inflation and Chinese construction. The next seven charts are displays of technical action that has captured our attention for key currency pairs. The last chart tackles the topic du jour, bitcoin. We will resume regular publishing on January 5th, 2018. Finally, the Foreign Exchange Strategy team would like to thank you for your continued readership, and wishes you and your families a joyful holiday season as well as a healthy, happy and prosperous 2018. Warm Regards, Mathieu Savary, Vice President Foreign Exchange Strategy mathieu@bcaresearch.com Feature 1) U.S. Inflation Chart I-1AU.S. Inflation Is On Its Merry Way (I) Chart I-1BU.S. Inflation Is On Its Merry Way (II) U.S. inflation has been moribund in 2017, dismaying believers of the Philips curve, the Federal Reserve included. A few factors have been at play. The Fed sigma models show that the negative impact of a dollar rally on U.S. inflation is at its strongest with a two-year lag. Additionally, the fall in capacity utilization that happened following the industrial recession in late 2015/early 2016 continued to affect inflation negatively this year. These headwinds are passing. As the left panel of Chart I-1 illustrates, the easing in U.S. financial conditions this past year is likely to continue and become most salient for inflation in 2018. Meanwhile, the right panel of the chart shows that as the deceleration in money velocity growth forecasted the weakness in core inflation in 2017, its recent re-acceleration points to a pick-up in inflation next year. The Fed might be able to achieve its interest rate forecast of 3.1% in 2020 after all. 2) Chinese Housing Chart I-2AFrosty Outlook For Chinese Construction (I) Chart I-2BFrosty Outlook For Chinese Construction (II) Chinese monetary conditions have been tightened in 2017, fiscal expansion has been curtailed, and the growth of the M3 broad money supply has fallen to 8.8%. So far, the Chinese economy is hanging in, still benefiting from the fact that real interest rates have collapsed since November 2015 as producer price inflation rebounded from a 6% contraction to a 6% expansion today. This increase in producer prices has also helped industrial profits, which are expanding at a 23% pace, helping put a floor under industrial production. However, the outlook for residential investment needs to be monitored. Construction contributed 17% of GDP growth during the past two years. Chinese construction also contributed to 20% and 32% of the global consumption of refined copper and steel, respectively. This means that Chinese construction was a key driver of metal prices. Yet our leading indicator for Chinese house prices points toward a marked deceleration in the coming quarters. As the right panel of Chart I-2 shows, this could get translated into additional downside for iron ore. 3) EUR/USD Chart I-3The Euro Is At A Key Threshold 1.20 continues to represent a big hurdle to cross for EUR/USD. For the euro to punch above this mark, U.S. inflation will have to remain moribund in 2018. The rally in EUR/USD tracked an improvement in market estimates of the European Central Bank's terminal policy rate relative to the Fed's. Yet this improvement did not reflect an upgrade of the ECB's terminal rate itself, but rather a major downgrade of the Fed's, as U.S. inflation disappointed. If U.S. inflation rebounds as BCA anticipates, the dollar should be able to rally toward 1.10, especially as euro area inflation is unlikely to follow suit, as euro area financial conditions have tightened massively relative to the U.S. If U.S. inflation does not rebound, a move toward 1.30 is possible. Glimpsing at Chart I-3, it should also be obvious that any strength in the dollar next year is likely to prove a long-term buying opportunity for the euro. The EUR/USD has only traded below current levels when the U.S. dollar has been in the thralls of a major bubble. Additionally, global portfolios are deeply underweight euro area assets, therefore, a long-term rebalancing of portfolios toward euro area assets will support the euro down the road. Finally, when the next recession hits, the ECB is likely to have less room to stimulate its economy than the Fed will have. This means that during the next recession, the euro could behave like the yen has over the past 20 years: because the ECB will be impotent to fight deflationary pressures, falling euro area inflation will result in rising euro area real interest rates, especially against the U.S. This helped the yen then, and it could help the euro in the future, especially as the euro area's net international investment position is set to move into positive territory over the next 24 months. 4) EUR/GBP Chart I-4Brexit And Valuations Will Keep EUR/GBP Range-Bound For Now EUR/GBP is at an interesting juncture. EUR/GBP has rarely traded above current levels (Chart I-4). On one hand, Brexit would suggest that EUR/GBP could actually rise. The uncertainty around the U.K. leaving the EU has caused the U.K. economy to be among the rare ones to not accelerate in unison with global growth this year, despite the stimulative effect of a lower pound. This suggests that the hands of the Bank of England will remain tied, limiting its capacity to increase the cash rate. Moreover, U.K. politics continue to take an increasingly populist tone, and the growing popularity of Jeremy Corbyn suggests that the discontent is present on all sides of the political spectrum. Populist policies are rarely good for a currency. On the other hand, the GBP is trading at such a discount to its fair value against both the USD and the EUR that historically, buying the pound at current levels has generated gains for investors with investment horizons measured in years. Moreover, if the EUR weakens in the first half of 2018, historical antecedents argue that EUR/GBP would also weaken in this context. When taken altogether, these factors suggest that EUR/GBP is likely to remain stuck in its post-Brexit trading range for as long as political uncertainty remains, especially as it is unlikely that the U.K. will receive a sweetheart FTA deal from the EU. Thus, while we expect EUR/GBP to retest 0.84 over the course of the next three to six months, at these levels we would buy EUR/GBP with a target of 0.90. 5) EUR/SEK Chart I-5EUR/SEK Will Fall From 10 To 9 EUR/SEK flirted with 10 this month. As Chart I-5 illustrates, this only happened during the financial crisis. Sweden is a much more pro-cyclical economy than the euro area, hence EUR/SEK exhibits very strong counter-cyclical behavior. It only trades above 10 when global growth is in tatters, and below 9 when it is booming. The recent spate of strength in EUR/SEK is thus perplexing, since global growth has been very robust and broad-based this year. The very easy policy of the Riksbank has been the main culprit. Timing a reversal in EUR/SEK is tricky, as it remains a function of the rhetoric of the Riksbank. But today, Swedish inflation is on the rise, with the CPIF, the inflation gauge targeted by the Swedish central bank, being at target. Thus, the days of super easy monetary policy in Sweden are numbered, especially as the output gap is a positive 1%, unemployment stands nearly 1% below equilibrium, and resource utilization measures have spiked up. Today, it makes sense to buy the SEK versus the euro. However, EUR/SEK is unlikely to move below 9, as the best of the global business cycle is probably behind us. 6) USD/JPY Chart I-6A Big Move In USD/JPY Is On Its Way USD/JPY is at an interesting technical juncture. This pair has been forming a very large tapering wedge in recent years (Chart I-6). This type of formation can be resolved in either a bullish fashion or a bearish one. Our current inclination is to bet on a bullish resolution for USD/JPY, as global bond yields seem to finally be regaining some vigor, which historically has been poison for the yen. Supporting our bias is the fact that we see more interest rate increases in the U.S. than are currently priced in, as we foresee a pick-up in inflation in 2018. The one thing that keeps us awake at night when thinking about our bullish disposition for USD/JPY is that EM carry trades have begun to weaken. Historically, this has led to a softening in global activity which foments further EM-carry-trade reversals and weakness in USD/JPY. Investors should keep an eye on this space. 7) AUD/USD Chart I-7AUD/USD At 0.8 Is A Line In The Sand The Australian dollar possesses the poorest outlook among the G10 currencies. The Australian economy continues to be plagued by large amounts of overcapacity, inflation is still absent, and Australia is the economy most exposed to a slowdown in Chinese construction activity as Australian terms-of-trade shocks follow metals prices. Additionally, China's push to fight pollution points to weakening coal prices, another key export of Australia. Moreover, Chart I-7 illustrates that the AUD rarely trades above 0.8. To do so, it needs an especially robust global economy, with China firing on all cylinders. We do not think China is about to crash, but it is not about to accelerate either, especially when it comes to demand for metals. Thus, with AUD/USD trading at 0.77, we see more downside for this pair than upside. In fact, when observed in a broader, longer-term context, the rally since 2016 in the AUD looks like a consolidation within a larger downtrend. 8) AUD/CAD Chart I-8AUD/CAD Will Breakdown AUD/CAD seems to have hit its natural ceiling this year. Only in the first half of the 1990s and when China was reflating its economy with all its might right after the financial crisis was AUD/CAD able to punch above 1.03 (Chart I-8). We do not see a repeat of this performance in the coming two years. First, as we mentioned, BCA does not anticipate any re-acceleration in Chinese investment or EM demand. Second, AUD/CAD is expensive, trading 9% above its fair value. Third, BCA remains more bullish on oil prices than metals prices. Fourth, a weakening AUD/USD tends to be associated with a weakening AUD/CAD. Finally, if these four factors cause AUD/CAD to weaken below 0.964, a key upward trend line that has supported AUD/CAD since late 2008 will be broken, which should prompt additional selling in this cross. 9) AUD/NZD Chart I-9AUD/NZD: Buffeted Between China, Jacinda, And Valuations AUD/NZD is likely to remain stuck in its trading range established since 2013 (Chart I-9). To begin with, the Australian dollar is trading at a 10% premium to the NZD. This has happened three times over the previous 17 years. Each of these instances were followed by vicious corrections in this cross. Additionally, while the AUD is very exposed to a slowing in Chinese construction and the associated problems for base metals prices, the NZD is not. In fact, the NZD may even benefit from the new economic objectives set by China's leadership. One of these new key objectives is to rebalance the economy toward the consumer. Moreover, Chinese consumer preferences have seen a switch toward higher quality foodstuffs.1 Higher quality foodstuffs, meat and dairy in particular, are exactly what New Zealand exports. Thus, a relative negative terms-of-trade shock is likely to come for AUD/NZD. The one big negative to our view is the political situation in New Zealand. The recent wave of populism points toward a fall in the potential growth rate, and thus a fall in the terminal policy rate of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. The limit on foreign investment in Kiwi housing is another negative.2 Thus, we are not yet willing to bet on AUD/NZD falling below parity. 10) Bitcoins Chart I-10Groupthink Points To A Bitcoin Correction Toward 11,000 Valuing bitcoins is an arduous exercise. A lack of clearly defined fundamentals is the key difficulty. It is also why bitcoin prices can move so violently. We have already covered the technological elements behind Bitcoin and the blockchain,3 but to uncover what could be driving investors' imaginations, we have to move back to the realm of economics and finance. One theory tries to value bitcoin by linking it to a mode of payment. Using this method, Dhaval Joshi, who writes our BCA European Investment Strategy service, estimates a fair value for BTC/USD. Using the quantity of money theory, he shows that if the market assumes that bitcoins can support US$0.5 trillion of global GDP, and if the velocity of money historically averages 1.5 times, with 21 million potential bitcoins in issuance, a bitcoin should be worth US$17,000.4 Changing estimates for velocity or how much of global GDP will be transacted using bitcoins varies this estimate. Another approach has been to value bitcoins as an asset with a limited supply, like gold. Using this methodology, the global gold stock is worth approximately US$7 trillion, but cryptocurrencies, with their high volatility, are unlikely to steal the yellow metal's entire market share. Instead, they might be able to carve out 25% of gold's current total market capitalization. In this case, cryptos would be worth US$1.75 trillion. Bitcoin could represent half of this amount, which equates to a total market capitalization of US$875 billion. With a stock of 21 million bitcoins, the "fair value" would be around US$42,000. A third approach exists, and it is the simplest (Occam Razor's alert?). As Peter Berezin argues in BCA's Global Investment Strategy service, global governments extract seigniorage benefits from issuing currency.5 As an example, by printing cash, the U.S. government can buy services and good worth roughly US$90 billion per year, at a near zero cost. This is a very significant amount. Governments are unlikely to ever give up this source of funding. Since crypto currencies are a direct threat to this, they will likely be made illegal as a result. This would imply a fair value of BTC/USD of zero. The current fair value is likely to be a probability weighted average of all three scenarios. We assign a 10% probability for the first case (mode of payment), a 10% probability to the second case (store of value), and an 80% probability to the last case (zero value due to illegality). This would give a current fair value of roughly US$6,000. At the current juncture, bitcoin trading is exhibiting strong herd-like tendencies. When groupthink takes over a market, as is the case right now with crypto-currencies in general and bitcoin in particular, a trend reversal is likely to materialize. Today, bitcoin's "fractal dimension" has hit the 1.25 neighborhood, where such reversals have tended to happen (Chart I-10). As such, a correction is very likely. The average correction since 2016 has been around 35%. Following similarly parabolic moves as the one observed over the past month, pullbacks have been closer to 45%. A retracement toward BTC/USD of 11,000 is very probable over the coming quarters. That being said, it is too early to call the ultimate top for bitcoin. With the narrative among the bitcoin investing public increasingly switching to bitcoin being a store of value akin to gold, a move to the US$40,000 neighborhood is, in fact, not a tail event. However, this is a move to play at one's own peril, since fair value is likely to be well below these levels. Mathieu Savary, Vice President Foreign Exchange Strategy mathieu@bcaresearch.com 1 Atkinson, Simon. "Why are China instant noodle sales going off the boil?" BBC News, BBC, 20 Dec. 2017, www.bbc.com/news/business-42390058. He, Laura. "China's growing middle class lose appetite for instant noodles." South China Morning Post, 20 Aug. 2017, www.scmp.com/business/companies/article/2107540/chinas-growing-middle-class-lose-appetite-instant-noodles. 2 For a more detailed discussion of the political situation in New Zealand as well as its potential impact, please see Foreign Exchange Strategy Weekly Report, titled "Reverse Alchemy: How to Transform Gold into Lead" dated November 3, 2017, available at fes.bcaresearch.com 3 Please see Foreign Exchange Strategy Special Report, titled "Blockchain And Cryptocurrencies" dated May 12, 2017, available at fes.bcaresearch.com 4 Please see European Investment Strategy Weekly Report, titled "Bitcoins And Fractals" dated December 21, 2017, available at eis.bcaresearch.com 5 Please see Global Investment Strategy Weekly Report, titled "Don't Fear A Flatter Yield Curve" dated December 22, 2017, available gis.bcaresearch.com Currencies U.S. Dollar Chart II-1USD Technicals 1 Chart II-2USD Technicals 2 U.S. data was mixed: Housing starts increased by 1.3 million units, beating expectations, building permits also outperformed; Both the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey and Chicago Fed National Activity Index outperformed expectations; However, annualized Q3 GDP growth came in at 3.2%, less than the expected 3.3%; Growth in headline and core personal consumption deflators also failed to meet expectations, coming in at 1.5% and 1.3% respectively. Easier financial conditions are expected to slowly push the core PCE deflator back to the Fed's 2% target. This will allow Jerome Powell to continue in Janet Yellen's footsteps. As credit continues to grow, the large U.S. consumer sector will become an increasingly important tailwind to growth. The fiscal thrust from the new tax plan will could also accentuate growth and inflationary pressures. Therefore, investment and consumption activity are both likely to pick up next year. This will should support the Fed as well as the USD. Report Links: Canaries In The Coal Mine Alert 2: More On EM Carry Trades And Global Growth - December 15, 2017 Riding The Wave: Momentum Strategies In Foreign Exchange Markets - December 8, 2017 The Xs And The Currency Market - November 24, 2017 The Euro Chart II-3EUR Technicals 1 Chart II-4EUR Technicals 2 European data was mixed: German ZEW Current Situation increased to 89.3, outperforming expectations of 88.5; European ZEW Current Situation slightly underperformed expectations of 18, coming in at 17.4; Manufacturing and services PMIs for Germany and Europe as a whole both outperformed expectations; European trade balance decreased to EUR 19 bn from EUR 25 bn, and the current account also underperformed; European CPI was in line with expectations, contracting at a monthly pace, and growing at a 0.9% annual pace, under the expected 1% rate. On the Back of strong momentum in activity indicators, the ECB upgraded its growth and inflation forecasts for the upcoming years. However, since inflation is expected to remain under target for the whole forecast horizon, the ECB is likely to tighten policy at a much slower pace than the Fed. Report Links: The Xs And The Currency Market - November 24, 2017 Temporary Short-Term Rates - November 10, 2017 Market Update - October 27, 2017 The Yen Chart II-5JPY Technicals 1 Chart II-6JPY Technicals 2 Recent data in Japan has been mixed: Annual Import growth came in at 17.2%, surprising to the downside. Moreover, the All Industry Activity Index monthly growth also underperformed expectations, coming in at 0.3%. However, export annual growth surprised to the upside, coming in at 16.2%, an acceleration relative to last month's reading. On Wednesday, the Bank of Japan left its policy rate unchanged at -0.1%. Furthermore, the yield curve control policy, in which 10-year yields are kept around 0%, has been maintained. We stay bullish on USD/JPY, as we expect U.S. bond yields to rise when inflation picks up next year. However the yen could appreciate against commodity currencies if a risk-off period is triggered by tightening in China. Report Links: Riding The Wave: Momentum Strategies In Foreign Exchange Markets - December 8, 2017 The Xs And The Currency Market - November 24, 2017 Temporary Short-Term Rates - November 10, 2017 British Pound Chart II-7GBP Technicals 1 Chart II-8GBP Technicals 2 Recent data in the U.K. has been mixed: Gfk Consumer confidence underperformed expectations, coming in at -13. This measure also decline from the November reading. However, CBI industrial Trend Survey for orders, surprised to the upside, coming in at 17. Finally, public sector borrowing also surprised to the upside, coming in at 8.118 Billion pounds. The pound has been flat against the U.S. dollar this week. Overall we remain skeptical in the ability of the Bank of England to tighten much in the near future, given that real disposable income growth is very depressed, house price growth continues to be tepid, and uncertainty weighs on capex. Moreover, inflation will likely come down from present levels, as the pass through from the pound depreciation dissipates. All of these factors will limit any upside to cable in the next months. Report Links: The Xs And The Currency Market - November 24, 2017 Reverse Alchemy: How To Transform Gold Into Lead - November 3, 2017 Currency Hedging: Dynamic Or Static? - A Practical Guide For Global Investors - September 29, 2017 Australian Dollar Chart II-9AUD Technicals 1 Chart II-10AUD Technicals 2 The AUD rallied solidly in recent weeks thanks to buoyant data out of Australia and China. Last week's labor numbers were especially important in this regard. The growth in full-time employment has outperformed that of part-time since summer, while the underemployment rate has declined by 0.3% since 2017Q2.. Moreover, RBA officials identified further positives in the housing market: excessive price appreciation has slowed down considerably and household's balance sheets are improving. For now, the biggest risk to the Australian dollar remains the Chinese economy. Xi Jinping's commitment to clamp down on pollution, debt and inequalities is a bearish prospect for the AUD. Additionally, Chinese house prices could decline substantially - something which would have negative repercussions for the AUD. Report Links: The Xs And The Currency Market - November 24, 2017 Currency Hedging: Dynamic Or Static? - A Practical Guide For Global Investors - September 29, 2017 Updating Our Long-Term Fair Value Models - September 15, 2017 New Zealand Dollar Chart II-11NZD Technicals 1 Chart II-12NZD Technicals 2 Recent data in New Zealand has been mixed: The current account surprised to the downside, coming in at -2.6% of GDP. However this number did improve from last quarter's -2.8% reading. However, both imports and exports outperformed expectations, coming in at 5.82 billion and 4.63 billion respectively. Moreover, GDP growth outperformed expectations, coming in at 2.7%. However, this number did decline from the 2.8% reading in Q2. NZD/USD was flat this week, even as the USD weakened. We continue to believe that carry currencies like the NZD, will be affected by tightening of financial conditions in China. However, the NZD has upside against the AUD, as the New Zealand dollar is cheaper than the AUD, and it is not as levered to the Chinese industrial cycle as the Australian dollar is. Report Links: The Xs And The Currency Market - November 24, 2017 Reverse Alchemy: How To Transform Gold Into Lead - November 3, 2017 Updating Our Long-Term Fair Value Models - September 15, 2017 Canadian Dollar Chart II-13CAD Technicals 1 Chart II-14CAD Technicals 2 Canadian data was strong this week: Retail sales increased month-on-month by 1.5%, outperforming expectations by 0.8%; core retail sales also increased by a 0.8% monthly pace; Core inflation is at 1.3%, outperforming the expected 0.8%; Headline CPI is at 2.1%, above the expected 2%; The Canadian economy is growing in line with our expectations. A strong U.S. economy has allowed the export sector to flourish, while high demand for jobs has caused the labor market to tighten substantially. As labor shortages intensify, wages should gain traction in the near future, paving way for the BoC to tighten at least twice next year. Report Links: The Xs And The Currency Market - November 24, 2017 Market Update - October 27, 2017 Currency Hedging: Dynamic Or Static? - A Practical Guide For Global Investors - September 29, 2017 Swiss Franc Chart II-15CHF Technicals 1 Chart II-16CHF Technicals 2 Recently, the SNB released its 4th quarter quarterly bulletin. This report highlighted that the Swiss economy continues to recover, and GDP growth is expected to reach 2% in 2018, after a 1% expansion this year. Furthermore, the bulletin remarked that the labor market continues to tighten, with unemployment reaching 3% and employment growth finally hitting its long term average. The SNB also remarked that although the output gap continues to be negative, measures of capacity utilization are very close to reaching their long term average. However, the SNB continues to be unapologetically committed to its dovish bias and to intervention in currency markets, as inflation in Switzerland continues to be too weak for the SNB to change its stance. Thus, the CHF is likely to continue depreciating. Report Links: The Xs And The Currency Market - November 24, 2017 Updating Our Long-Term Fair Value Models - September 15, 2017 Balance Of Payments Across The G10 - August 4, 2017 Norwegian Krone Chart II-17NOK Technicals 1 Chart II-18NOK Technicals 2 USD/NOK has appreciated by nearly 1.5% since last week, even as Brent has rallied by more than 2.5%. This dynamic highlights the fact that USD/NOK continues to be more correlated to interest rate differentials between Norway and the U.S. than to oil prices. Inflationary pressures and economic activity continue to be too tepid for the Norges to adopt a much more hawkish tone than it did last week. Meanwhile, the Fed is likely to surprise the market next year, by following up on its "dot plot". These dynamics will continue to put upward pressure on USD/NOK. Nevertheless, foreign exchange investors can still use the krone to bet on higher oil prices resulting from the extension of the OPEC supply cuts. The way to do so is by shorting EUR/NOK, which is more correlated with oil prices. Report Links: Canaries In The Coal Mine Alert 2: More On EM Carry Trades And Global Growth - December 15, 2017 The Xs And The Currency Market - November 24, 2017 Updating Our Long-Term Fair Value Models - September 15, 2017 Swedish Krona Chart II-19SEK Technicals 1 Chart II-20SEK Technicals 2 Swedish data has bounced back considerably: Headline CPI increased by 1.9% annually and CPIF grew by 2% annually; The unemployment rate dropped substantially from 6.3% to 5.8%, while the seasonally adjusted figure dropped from 6.7% to 6.4%. This week, the Riksbank announced a formal end to additional bond purchases by the end of December. However, reinvestments will continue until the middle of 2019, which means that the Bank's holdings of government bonds will actually increase into 2019. Additionally, the Swedish central bank also forecasts the repo rate to begin gradually increasing in the middle of 2018. This makes sense as the Swedish economy is running beyond capacity conditions. Given Sweden's stellar growth period, an appreciation in the SEK is long-awaited, but this will have to wait until Governor Ingves convinces markets that his perennial dovish-bias is ebbing. At that point, any hint of hawkishness will cause a sharp appreciation in the SEK, especially against the euro. Report Links: Canaries In The Coal Mine Alert 2: More On EM Carry Trades And Global Growth - December 15, 2017 The Xs And The Currency Market - November 24, 2017 Updating Our Long-Term Fair Value Models - September 15, 2017 Trades & Forecasts Forecast Summary Core Portfolio Tactical Trades Closed Trades

Feature It has been a Geopolitical Strategy tradition, since our launch in 2012, to include our best and worst forecasts of the year in our end-of-year Strategic Outlook monthly reports.1 Since we have switched over to a weekly publication schedule, we are making this section of our Outlook an individual report.2 It will also be the final publication of the year, provided that there is no global conflagration worthy of a missive between now and January 10, when we return to our regular publication schedule. The Worst Calls Of 2017 A forecasting mistake is wasted if one learns nothing from the error. Alternatively, it is an opportunity to arm oneself with wisdom for the next fight. This is why we take our mistakes seriously and why we begin this report card with the zingers. Overall, we are satisfied with our performance in 2017, as the successes below will testify. However, we made one serious error and two ancillary ones. Short Emerging Markets Continuing to recommend an overweight DM / underweight EM stance was the major failure this year (Chart 1). More specifically, we penned several bearish reports on the politics of Brazil, South Africa, and Turkey throughout the year to support our view.3 What did we learn from our mistake? The main driving forces behind EM risk assets in 2017 have been U.S. TIPS yields and the greenback (Chart 2). Weak inflation data and policy disappointments as the pro-growth, populist economic policy of the Trump Administration stalled mid-year supported the EM carry trade throughout the year. The post-election dollar rally dissipated, while Chinese fiscal and credit stimulus carried over into 2017 and buoyed demand for EM exports. Chart 1The Worst Call Of 2017: Long DM / Short EM Chart 2How Long Can The EM Carry Trade Survive? Our bearish call was based on EM macroeconomic and political fundamentals. On one hand, our fundamental analysis was genuinely wrong. Emerging markets were buoyed by Chinese stimulus and a broad-based DM recovery. On the other hand, our fundamental analysis was irrelevant, as the global "search-for-yield" overwhelmed all other factors. Chart 3The Dollar Ought ##br##To Rebound Chart 4Chinese Monetary Conditions Point##br## To Slowing Industrial Activity Going forward, it is difficult to see this combination of factors emerge anew. First, the U.S. economy is set to outperform the rest of the world in 2018, particularly with the stimulative tax cut finally on the books, which should be dollar bullish (Chart 3). Second, downside risks to the Chinese economy are multiplying (Chart 4) as policymakers crack down on the shadow financial sector and real estate (Chart 5). BCA's Foreign Exchange Strategy has shown that EM currencies are already flagging risks to global growth. Their "carry canary indicator" - EM currencies vs. the JPY - is forecasting a sharp deceleration in global growth within the next two quarters (Chart 6). Chart 5Chinese Growth ##br##Slowing Down? Chart 6After Carry Trades Lose Momentum,##br## Global IP Weakens That said, we have learned our lesson. We are closing all of our short EM positions and awaiting January credit numbers from China. If our view on Chinese financial sector reforms is correct, these figures should disappoint. If they do not, the EM party can continue. "Trump, Day One: Let The Trade War Begin" In our defense, the title of our first Weekly Report of the year belied the nuanced analysis within.4 We argued that the Trump administration would begin its relationship with China with a "symbolic punitive measure," but that it would then "seek high-level negotiations toward a framework for the administration's relations with China over the next four years." This was largely the script followed by the White House. We also warned clients that it would be the "lead up to the 2018 or 2020 elections" that truly revealed President Trump's protectionist side. Nonetheless, we were overly bearish about trade protectionism throughout 2017. First, President Trump did not name China a currency manipulator. Second, the border adjustment tax (BAT), which we thought had a 55% chance of being included in tax reform, really was dead-on-arrival. Third, the "Mar-A-Lago Summit" consensus lasted through the summer, buoying companies with relative exposure to China relative to the S&P 500 (Chart 7).5 Chart 7Second Worst Call Of 2017:##br## Alarmism On Protectionism Why did we get the Trump White House wrong on protectionism? There are three possibilities: Constraints error: We strayed too far from our constraints-based model by focusing too much on preferences of the Trump Administration. While we are correct that the White House lacks constraints when it comes to trade, tensions with North Korea this year - which we forecast correctly - were a constraint on an overly punitive trade policy against China. Preferences error: We got the Trump administration preferences wrong. Trade protectionism is the wool that Candidate Trump pulled over his voters' eyes. He is in fact an establishment Republican - a pluto-populist - with no intention of actually enacting protectionist policies. Timing error: We were too early. Year 2018 will see fireworks. Unfortunately for our clients, we have no idea which error we committed. But Trump's national security speech on Dec. 18 maintained the protectionist threat, and there are several key deadlines coming up that should reveal which way the winds are blowing: New Year: Trump will have to decide on January 12 and February 3 whether to impose tariffs on solar panels and washing machines, respectively, under Section 201 of the U.S. Trade Act of 1974. This ruling will have implications for other trade items. End of Q1: NAFTA negotiations have been extended through the end of Q1 2018. As we recently posited, the abrogation of NAFTA by the White House is a 50-50 probability.6 The question is whether the Trump administration follows this up with separate bilateral talks with Canada and Mexico, or whether it moves beyond NAFTA to clash directly with the WTO instead.7 The U.K. Election (Although We Got Brexit Right!) Our forecasting record of U.K. elections is abysmal. We predicted that Theresa May would preserve her majority in the House of Commons, although in our defense we also noted that the risks were clearly skewed to the downside given the movement of the U.K. median voter to the left.8 We are now 0 for 2, having also incorrectly called the 2015 general election (we expected the Tories to fail to reach the majority in that election).9 On the other hand, we correctly sounded the alarm on Brexit, noting that the probability was much closer to 50% than what the market was pricing at the time.10 What gives? The mix of U.K.'s first-past-the-post system and the country's unique party distribution makes forecasting elections difficult. Because the Tories are essentially the only right-of-center party in England, they tend to outperform their polls and win constituencies with a low-plurality of votes. As such, in 2017, we ignored the strong Labour momentum in the polls, expecting that it would stall. It did not (Chart 8). That said, our job is not to call elections, but to generate alpha by focusing on the difference between what the market is pricing in and what we believe will happen. If elections are a catalyst for market performance - as was the case with the French one this year - we track them closely in a series of publications and adjust our probabilities as new data comes in. For U.K. assets this year, by contrast, getting the Brexit process right was far more relevant than the general election. Our high conviction view that the EU would not be punitive, that the U.K. would accept all conditions, and that the May administration would essentially stick to the "hard Brexit" strategy it defined in January ended up being correct.11 This allowed us to call the GBP bottom versus the USD in January (Chart 9). Chart 8Third Worst Call Of 2018: The U.K. Election Chart 9But We Got Brexit - And Cable! - Right What did we learn from our final error? Stop trying to forecast U.K. elections! The Best Calls Of 2017 The best overall call in 2017 was to tell clients to buy the S&P 500 in April and never look back. Our "Buy In May And Enjoy Your Day!" missive on April 26 was preceded by our analysis of global geopolitical risks and opportunities.12 In these, we concluded that "Political Risks Are Overstated In 2017" and "Understated In 2018."13 As such, the combination of strong risk asset performance and low volatility did not surprise us. It was our forecast (Chart 10). U.S. Politics: Tax Cuts & Impeachment Not only did we forecast that President Trump would manage to successfully pass tax reform in 2017, but we also correctly called the GOP's fiscal profligacy.14 We get little recognition for the latter in conversations with clients and colleagues, but it was a highly contentious call, especially after seven years of austere rhetoric from the fiscal conservatives supposedly running the Republican Party. We were also correct that impeachment fears and the ongoing Mueller Investigation would have little impact on U.S. assets.15 Chart 11 shows that the U.S. dollar and S&P 500 barely moved with each Trump-related scandal (Table 1). Chart 10The Best Call Of 2017: Getting The Market Right Chart 11No Real Impact From Trump Imbroglio By correctly identifying the ongoing "Trump Put" in the market, we were able to remain bullish on U.S. equities throughout the year and avoid calling any pullbacks. Table 1An Eventful Year 1 Of The Trump Presidency Europe (All Of It) Our performance forecasting European politics and markets has been stellar this year. Instead of reviewing each call, the list below simply summarizes each report: "After Brexit, N-Exit?" - Although technically a call made in 2016, our view that Brexit would cause a surge in support for the EU was a view for 2017.16 Several anti-establishment populists failed to perform in line with their 2015-2016 polling, particularly Geert Wilders in the Netherlands. "Will Marine Le Pen Win?" - We definitely answered this question in the negative, going back to November 2016.17 This allowed us to recommend clients go long the euro vs. the U.S. dollar (Chart 12). Moreover, we argued that regardless of who won the election, the next French government would embark on structural reforms.18 As a play on our bullish view of France, we recommended that clients overweight French industrials vs. German ones (Chart 13). "Europe's Divine Comedy: Italy In Purgatorio" - We correctly assessed that Italian Euroskpetics would migrate towards the center on the question of the euro. However, we missed recommending the epic rally in Italian equities and bonds that should have naturally flowed from our political view.19 "Fade Catalan Risks" - Based on our 2014 net assessment, we concluded that the Catalan independence drive would be largely irrelevant for the markets.20 This proved to be correct this year. "Can Turkey Restart The Immigration Crisis?" - Earlier in the year, clients became nervous about a potential diplomatic breakdown between the EU and Turkey leading to a renewal of the immigration crisis.21 We reiterated our long-held view that the immigration crisis did not end because of Turkish intervention, but because of tighter European enforcement. Throughout the year, we were proven right, with Europeans becoming more and more focused on interdiction. Chart 12Second Best Call Of 2017: The Euro... Chart 13...And France In Particular China: Policy-Induced Financial Tightening Throughout 2016-17, in the lead-up to China's nineteenth National Party Congress, we argued that the stability imperative would ensure an accommodative-but-not-too-accommodative policy stance.22 In particular, we highlighted the ongoing impetus for anti-pollution controls.23 This forecast broadly proved to be correct, as the government maintained stimulus yet simultaneously surprised the markets with financial and environmental regulatory crackdowns throughout the year. Once these regulatory campaigns took off, we argued that they would remain tentative, since the truly tough policies would have to wait until after the party congress. At that point, Xi Jinping could re-launch his structural reform agenda, primarily by intensifying financial sector tightening.24 Over the course of the year, this political analysis began to be revealed in the data, with broad money (M3) figures suggesting that money growth decelerated sharply in 2017 (Chart 14). In addition, we correctly called several moves by President Xi Jinping at the party congress.25 Chart 14Third Best Call Of 2017:##br## Chinese Reforms? (We Will See In 2018!) Our view that Chinese policymakers will restart reforms after the party congress is now becoming more widely accepted, given Xi's party congress speech Oct. 18 and the news from the December Politburo meeting.26 Where we differ from the market is in arguing that Beijing's bite will be worse than its bark. We are concerned that there is considerable risk to the downside and that stimulus will come much later than investors think this time around. Our China view was largely correct in 2017, but the real market significance will be felt in 2018. There are still several questions outstanding, including whether the crackdown on the financial sector will be as growth-constraining as we think. As such, this is a key view that will carry over into 2018. Thankfully, we should know whether we are right or wrong by the March National People's Congress session and the data releases shortly thereafter. North Korea - Both A Tail Risk And An Overstated Risk We correctly identified North Korea as a key 2017 geopolitical risk in our Strategic Outlook and began signaling that it was no longer a "red herring" as early as April 2016.27 In April 2017, we told clients to prepare for safe haven flows due to the likelihood that tensions would increase as the U.S. established a "credible threat" of war, a playbook that the Obama administration most recently used against Iran.28 While we flagged North Korea as a risk that would move the markets, we also signaled precisely when the risk became overstated. In September, we told clients that U.S. Treasury yields would rise from their lows that month as investors realized that the North Korean regime was constrained by its paltry military capability.29 At the same time, we gave President Trump an A+ for his performance establishing a credible threat, a bet that worked not only on Pyongyang, but also on Beijing. Since this summer, China has begun to ratchet up economic pressure against North Korea (Chart 15). Chart 15Fourth Best Call Of 2017: North Korea Middle East And Oil Prices BCA Research scored a big win this year with our energy call. It would be unfair for us to take credit for that view. Our Commodity & Energy Strategy as well as our Energy Sector Strategy deserve all the credit.30 Nonetheless, we helped our commodity teams make the right calls by: Correctly forecasting that Saudi-Iranian and Russo-Turkish tensions would de-escalate, allowing OPEC and Russia to maintain the production-cut agreement;31 Emphasizing risks to Iraqi production as tensions shifted from the Islamic State to the Kurdish Regional Government; Highlighting the likely continued decline, but not sharp cut-off, of Venezuelan production, due to the regime's ability to cling to power even as the conditions of production worsened.32 In addition, we were correct to fade various concerns regarding renewed tensions in Qatar, Yemen, and Lebanon throughout the year. Despite the media narrative that the Middle East has become a cauldron of instability anew, our long-held view that all the players involved are constrained by domestic and material constraints has remained cogent. In particular, our view that Saudi Arabia would engage in serious social reforms bore fruit in 2017, with several moves by the ruling regime to evolve the country away from feudal monarchy.33 Going forward, a major risk to our view is the Trump administration policy towards Iran, our top Black Swan risk for 2018. Marko Papic, Senior Vice President Chief Geopolitical Strategist marko@bcaresearch.com Matt Gertken, Associate Vice President Geopolitical Strategy mattg@bcaresearch.com Jesse Anak Kuri, Research Analyst jesse.kuri@bcaresearch.com Ekaterina Shtrevensky, Research Assistant ekaterinas@bcaresearch.com 1 Due to the high volume of footnotes in this report, we have decided to include them at the end of the document. For a review of our past Strategic Outlooks, please visit gps.bcaresearch.com. 2 For the rest of our 2018 Outlook, please see BCA Geopolitical Strategy Special Report, "Five Black Swans In 2018," dated December 6, 2017, and "Three Questions For 2018," dated December 13, 2017, available at gps.bcaresearch.com. 3 Please see BCA Geopolitical Strategy, "Turkey: Military Adventurism And Capital Controls," dated December 7, 2016, "South Africa: Back To Reality," dated April 5, 2017, "Brazil: Politics Giveth And Politics Taketh Away," dated May 24, 2017, "South Africa: Crisis Of Expectations," dated June 28, 2017, "Update On Emerging Markets: Malaysia, Mexico, And The United States Of America," dated August 9, 2017, available at gps.bcaresearch.com. 4 Please see BCA Geopolitical Strategy Weekly Report, "Trump, Day One: Let The Trade War Begin," dated January 18, 2017, available at gps.bcaresearch.com. 5 Please see BCA Geopolitical Strategy Weekly Report, "G19," dated July 12, 2017, available at gps.bcaresearch.com. 6 Please see BCA Geopolitical Strategy and Global Investment Strategy Special Report, "NAFTA - Populism Vs. Pluto-Populism," dated November 10, 2017, available at gps.bcaresearch.com. 7 The outcome at the WTO Buenos Aires summit last week offered a possible way out of confrontation between the Trump administration and the WTO. It featured Europe and Japan taking a tougher line on trade violations, namely China, to respond to the Trump administration grievances that, unaddressed, could escalate into a full-fledged Trump-WTO clash. 8 Please see BCA Geopolitical Strategy Weekly Report, "How Long Can The 'Trump Put' Last?" dated June 14, 2017 and "U.K. Election: The Median Voter Has Spoken," dated June 9, 2017, available at gps.bcaresearch.com. 9 Please see BCA Geopolitical Strategy Special Report, "U.K. Election Preview," dated February 26, 2015, available at gps.bcaresearch.com. 10 Please see BCA Geopolitical Strategy and European Investment Strategy Special Report, "With Or Without You: The U.K. And The EU," dated March 17, 2016, available at gps.bcaresearch.com. 11 Please see BCA Geopolitical Strategy Weekly Report, "The 'What Can You Do For Me?' World?" dated January 25, 2017, available at gps.bcaresearch.com. 12 Please see BCA Geopolitical Strategy Weekly Report, "Buy In May And Enjoy Your Day!" dated April 26, 2017, available at gps.bcaresearch.com. 13 Please see BCA Geopolitical Strategy Weekly Report, "Political Risks Are Overstated In 2017," dated April 5, 2017 and "Political Risks Are Understated In 2017," dated April 12, 2017, available at gps.bcaresearch.com. 14 Please see BCA Geopolitical Strategy Special Report, "U.S. Election: Outcomes And Investment Implications," dated November 9, 2016, available at gps.bcaresearch.com. 15 Please see BCA Geopolitical Strategy Special Report, "Break Glass In Case Of Impeachment," dated May 17, 2017, available at gps.bcaresearch.com. 16 Please see BCA Geopolitical Strategy Special Report, "After BREXIT, N-EXIT?" dated July 13, 2016, available at gps.bcaresearch.com. 17 Please see BCA Geopolitical Strategy Special Report, "Will Marine Le Pen Win?" dated November 16, 2016, available at gps.bcaresearch.com. 18 Please see BCA Geopolitical Strategy Special Report, "The French Revolution," dated February 3, 2017 and "Climbing The Wall Of Worry In Europe," dated February 15, 2017, available at gps.bcaresearch.com. 19 Please see BCA Geopolitical Strategy Special Report, "Europe's Divine Comedy Part II: Italy In Purgatorio," dated June 21, 2017, available at gps.bcaresearch.com. 20 Please see BCA Geopolitical Strategy and European Investment Strategy Special Report, "Secession In Europe: Scotland And Catalonia," dated May 14, 2014 and "Why So Serious?" dated October 11, 2017, available at gps.bcaresearch.com. 21 Please see BCA Geopolitical Strategy Weekly Report, "Five Questions On Europe," dated March 22, 2017, available at gps.bcaresearch.com. 22 Please see BCA Geopolitical Strategy Monthly Report, "Throwing The Baby (Globalization) Out With The Bath Water (Deflation)," dated July 13, 2016, available at gps.bcaresearch.com. 23 Please see BCA Geopolitical Strategy Monthly Report, "De-Globalization," dated November 9, 2016, available at gps.bcaresearch.com. 24 Please see BCA Geopolitical Strategy We," dated June 28, 2017, "Update On Emerging Markets: Malaysia, Mexico, And The United States Of America," dated August 9, 2017, available at gps.bcaresearch.com. 25 We argued in our 2017 Strategic Outlook that while Xi's faction would gain a majority on the Politburo Standing Committee, he would maintain a reasonable balance and refrain from excluding opposing factions from power. We expected that factional struggle would flare back up into the open (as with the ouster of Sun Zhengcai), and that Xi would retire anti-corruption chief Wang Qishan, but not that Xi would avoid promoting a successor for 2022 to the Politburo Standing Committee. 26 Please see BCA Geopolitical Strategy Special Report, "China: Looking Beyond The Party Congress," dated July 19, 2017, available at gps.bcaresearch.com. 27 Please see BCA Geopolitical Strategy "North Korea: A Red Herring No More?" in Monthly Report, "Partem Mirabilis," dated April 13, 2016 and "Strategic Outlook 2017: We Are All Geopolitical Strategists Now," dated December 14, 2016, available at gps.bcaresearch.com. 28 Please see BCA Geopolitical Strategy Special Report, "North Korea: Beyond Satire," dated April 19, 2017, available at gps.bcaresearch.com. 29 Please see BCA Geopolitical Strategy Weekly Report, "Can Equities And Bonds Continue To Rally?" dated September 20, 2017, available at gps.bcaresearch.com. 30 If you are an investor with even a passing interest in commodities and oil, you must review the work of our colleagues Robert Ryan and Matt Conlan. 31 Please see BCA Geopolitical Strategy and Global Investment Strategy Special Report, "Forget About The Middle East?" dated January 13, 2017, available at gps.bcaresearch.com. 32 Please see BCA Geopolitical Strategy Special Report, "Venezuela: Oil Market Rebalance Is Too Little, Too Late," dated May 17, 2017, available at gps.bcaresearch.com. 33 Please see BCA Geopolitical Strategy Special Report, "The Middle East: Separating The Signal From The Noise," dated November 15, 2017, available at gps.bcaresearch.com.

Special Report

Feature It has been a Geopolitical Strategy tradition, since our launch in 2012, to include our best and worst forecasts of the year in our end-of-year Strategic Outlook monthly reports.1 Since we have switched over to a weekly publication schedule, we are making this section of our Outlook an individual report.2 It will also be the final publication of the year, provided that there is no global conflagration worthy of a missive between now and January 10, when we return to our regular publication schedule. The Worst Calls Of 2017 A forecasting mistake is wasted if one learns nothing from the error. Alternatively, it is an opportunity to arm oneself with wisdom for the next fight. This is why we take our mistakes seriously and why we begin this report card with the zingers. Overall, we are satisfied with our performance in 2017, as the successes below will testify. However, we made one serious error and two ancillary ones. Short Emerging Markets Continuing to recommend an overweight DM / underweight EM stance was the major failure this year (Chart 1). More specifically, we penned several bearish reports on the politics of Brazil, South Africa, and Turkey throughout the year to support our view.3 What did we learn from our mistake? The main driving forces behind EM risk assets in 2017 have been U.S. TIPS yields and the greenback (Chart 2). Weak inflation data and policy disappointments as the pro-growth, populist economic policy of the Trump Administration stalled mid-year supported the EM carry trade throughout the year. The post-election dollar rally dissipated, while Chinese fiscal and credit stimulus carried over into 2017 and buoyed demand for EM exports. Chart 1The Worst Call Of 2017: Long DM / Short EM Chart 2How Long Can The EM Carry Trade Survive? Our bearish call was based on EM macroeconomic and political fundamentals. On one hand, our fundamental analysis was genuinely wrong. Emerging markets were buoyed by Chinese stimulus and a broad-based DM recovery. On the other hand, our fundamental analysis was irrelevant, as the global "search-for-yield" overwhelmed all other factors. Chart 3The Dollar Ought ##br##To Rebound Chart 4Chinese Monetary Conditions Point##br## To Slowing Industrial Activity Going forward, it is difficult to see this combination of factors emerge anew. First, the U.S. economy is set to outperform the rest of the world in 2018, particularly with the stimulative tax cut finally on the books, which should be dollar bullish (Chart 3). Second, downside risks to the Chinese economy are multiplying (Chart 4) as policymakers crack down on the shadow financial sector and real estate (Chart 5). BCA's Foreign Exchange Strategy has shown that EM currencies are already flagging risks to global growth. Their "carry canary indicator" - EM currencies vs. the JPY - is forecasting a sharp deceleration in global growth within the next two quarters (Chart 6). Chart 5Chinese Growth ##br##Slowing Down? Chart 6After Carry Trades Lose Momentum,##br## Global IP Weakens That said, we have learned our lesson. We are closing all of our short EM positions and awaiting January credit numbers from China. If our view on Chinese financial sector reforms is correct, these figures should disappoint. If they do not, the EM party can continue. "Trump, Day One: Let The Trade War Begin" In our defense, the title of our first Weekly Report of the year belied the nuanced analysis within.4 We argued that the Trump administration would begin its relationship with China with a "symbolic punitive measure," but that it would then "seek high-level negotiations toward a framework for the administration's relations with China over the next four years." This was largely the script followed by the White House. We also warned clients that it would be the "lead up to the 2018 or 2020 elections" that truly revealed President Trump's protectionist side. Nonetheless, we were overly bearish about trade protectionism throughout 2017. First, President Trump did not name China a currency manipulator. Second, the border adjustment tax (BAT), which we thought had a 55% chance of being included in tax reform, really was dead-on-arrival. Third, the "Mar-A-Lago Summit" consensus lasted through the summer, buoying companies with relative exposure to China relative to the S&P 500 (Chart 7).5 Chart 7Second Worst Call Of 2017:##br## Alarmism On Protectionism Why did we get the Trump White House wrong on protectionism? There are three possibilities: Constraints error: We strayed too far from our constraints-based model by focusing too much on preferences of the Trump Administration. While we are correct that the White House lacks constraints when it comes to trade, tensions with North Korea this year - which we forecast correctly - were a constraint on an overly punitive trade policy against China. Preferences error: We got the Trump administration preferences wrong. Trade protectionism is the wool that Candidate Trump pulled over his voters' eyes. He is in fact an establishment Republican - a pluto-populist - with no intention of actually enacting protectionist policies. Timing error: We were too early. Year 2018 will see fireworks. Unfortunately for our clients, we have no idea which error we committed. But Trump's national security speech on Dec. 18 maintained the protectionist threat, and there are several key deadlines coming up that should reveal which way the winds are blowing: New Year: Trump will have to decide on January 12 and February 3 whether to impose tariffs on solar panels and washing machines, respectively, under Section 201 of the U.S. Trade Act of 1974. This ruling will have implications for other trade items. End of Q1: NAFTA negotiations have been extended through the end of Q1 2018. As we recently posited, the abrogation of NAFTA by the White House is a 50-50 probability.6 The question is whether the Trump administration follows this up with separate bilateral talks with Canada and Mexico, or whether it moves beyond NAFTA to clash directly with the WTO instead.7 The U.K. Election (Although We Got Brexit Right!) Our forecasting record of U.K. elections is abysmal. We predicted that Theresa May would preserve her majority in the House of Commons, although in our defense we also noted that the risks were clearly skewed to the downside given the movement of the U.K. median voter to the left.8 We are now 0 for 2, having also incorrectly called the 2015 general election (we expected the Tories to fail to reach the majority in that election).9 On the other hand, we correctly sounded the alarm on Brexit, noting that the probability was much closer to 50% than what the market was pricing at the time.10 What gives? The mix of U.K.'s first-past-the-post system and the country's unique party distribution makes forecasting elections difficult. Because the Tories are essentially the only right-of-center party in England, they tend to outperform their polls and win constituencies with a low-plurality of votes. As such, in 2017, we ignored the strong Labour momentum in the polls, expecting that it would stall. It did not (Chart 8). That said, our job is not to call elections, but to generate alpha by focusing on the difference between what the market is pricing in and what we believe will happen. If elections are a catalyst for market performance - as was the case with the French one this year - we track them closely in a series of publications and adjust our probabilities as new data comes in. For U.K. assets this year, by contrast, getting the Brexit process right was far more relevant than the general election. Our high conviction view that the EU would not be punitive, that the U.K. would accept all conditions, and that the May administration would essentially stick to the "hard Brexit" strategy it defined in January ended up being correct.11 This allowed us to call the GBP bottom versus the USD in January (Chart 9). Chart 8Third Worst Call Of 2018: The U.K. Election Chart 9But We Got Brexit - And Cable! - Right What did we learn from our final error? Stop trying to forecast U.K. elections! The Best Calls Of 2017 The best overall call in 2017 was to tell clients to buy the S&P 500 in April and never look back. Our "Buy In May And Enjoy Your Day!" missive on April 26 was preceded by our analysis of global geopolitical risks and opportunities.12 In these, we concluded that "Political Risks Are Overstated In 2017" and "Understated In 2018."13 As such, the combination of strong risk asset performance and low volatility did not surprise us. It was our forecast (Chart 10). U.S. Politics: Tax Cuts & Impeachment Not only did we forecast that President Trump would manage to successfully pass tax reform in 2017, but we also correctly called the GOP's fiscal profligacy.14 We get little recognition for the latter in conversations with clients and colleagues, but it was a highly contentious call, especially after seven years of austere rhetoric from the fiscal conservatives supposedly running the Republican Party. We were also correct that impeachment fears and the ongoing Mueller Investigation would have little impact on U.S. assets.15 Chart 11 shows that the U.S. dollar and S&P 500 barely moved with each Trump-related scandal (Table 1). Chart 10The Best Call Of 2017: Getting The Market Right Chart 11No Real Impact From Trump Imbroglio By correctly identifying the ongoing "Trump Put" in the market, we were able to remain bullish on U.S. equities throughout the year and avoid calling any pullbacks. Table 1An Eventful Year 1 Of The Trump Presidency Europe (All Of It) Our performance forecasting European politics and markets has been stellar this year. Instead of reviewing each call, the list below simply summarizes each report: "After Brexit, N-Exit?" - Although technically a call made in 2016, our view that Brexit would cause a surge in support for the EU was a view for 2017.16 Several anti-establishment populists failed to perform in line with their 2015-2016 polling, particularly Geert Wilders in the Netherlands. "Will Marine Le Pen Win?" - We definitely answered this question in the negative, going back to November 2016.17 This allowed us to recommend clients go long the euro vs. the U.S. dollar (Chart 12). Moreover, we argued that regardless of who won the election, the next French government would embark on structural reforms.18 As a play on our bullish view of France, we recommended that clients overweight French industrials vs. German ones (Chart 13). "Europe's Divine Comedy: Italy In Purgatorio" - We correctly assessed that Italian Euroskpetics would migrate towards the center on the question of the euro. However, we missed recommending the epic rally in Italian equities and bonds that should have naturally flowed from our political view.19 "Fade Catalan Risks" - Based on our 2014 net assessment, we concluded that the Catalan independence drive would be largely irrelevant for the markets.20 This proved to be correct this year. "Can Turkey Restart The Immigration Crisis?" - Earlier in the year, clients became nervous about a potential diplomatic breakdown between the EU and Turkey leading to a renewal of the immigration crisis.21 We reiterated our long-held view that the immigration crisis did not end because of Turkish intervention, but because of tighter European enforcement. Throughout the year, we were proven right, with Europeans becoming more and more focused on interdiction. Chart 12Second Best Call Of 2017: The Euro... Chart 13...And France In Particular China: Policy-Induced Financial Tightening Throughout 2016-17, in the lead-up to China's nineteenth National Party Congress, we argued that the stability imperative would ensure an accommodative-but-not-too-accommodative policy stance.22 In particular, we highlighted the ongoing impetus for anti-pollution controls.23 This forecast broadly proved to be correct, as the government maintained stimulus yet simultaneously surprised the markets with financial and environmental regulatory crackdowns throughout the year. Once these regulatory campaigns took off, we argued that they would remain tentative, since the truly tough policies would have to wait until after the party congress. At that point, Xi Jinping could re-launch his structural reform agenda, primarily by intensifying financial sector tightening.24 Over the course of the year, this political analysis began to be revealed in the data, with broad money (M3) figures suggesting that money growth decelerated sharply in 2017 (Chart 14). In addition, we correctly called several moves by President Xi Jinping at the party congress.25 Chart 14Third Best Call Of 2017:##br## Chinese Reforms? (We Will See In 2018!) Our view that Chinese policymakers will restart reforms after the party congress is now becoming more widely accepted, given Xi's party congress speech Oct. 18 and the news from the December Politburo meeting.26 Where we differ from the market is in arguing that Beijing's bite will be worse than its bark. We are concerned that there is considerable risk to the downside and that stimulus will come much later than investors think this time around. Our China view was largely correct in 2017, but the real market significance will be felt in 2018. There are still several questions outstanding, including whether the crackdown on the financial sector will be as growth-constraining as we think. As such, this is a key view that will carry over into 2018. Thankfully, we should know whether we are right or wrong by the March National People's Congress session and the data releases shortly thereafter. North Korea - Both A Tail Risk And An Overstated Risk We correctly identified North Korea as a key 2017 geopolitical risk in our Strategic Outlook and began signaling that it was no longer a "red herring" as early as April 2016.27 In April 2017, we told clients to prepare for safe haven flows due to the likelihood that tensions would increase as the U.S. established a "credible threat" of war, a playbook that the Obama administration most recently used against Iran.28 While we flagged North Korea as a risk that would move the markets, we also signaled precisely when the risk became overstated. In September, we told clients that U.S. Treasury yields would rise from their lows that month as investors realized that the North Korean regime was constrained by its paltry military capability.29 At the same time, we gave President Trump an A+ for his performance establishing a credible threat, a bet that worked not only on Pyongyang, but also on Beijing. Since this summer, China has begun to ratchet up economic pressure against North Korea (Chart 15). Chart 15Fourth Best Call Of 2017: North Korea Middle East And Oil Prices BCA Research scored a big win this year with our energy call. It would be unfair for us to take credit for that view. Our Commodity & Energy Strategy as well as our Energy Sector Strategy deserve all the credit.30 Nonetheless, we helped our commodity teams make the right calls by: Correctly forecasting that Saudi-Iranian and Russo-Turkish tensions would de-escalate, allowing OPEC and Russia to maintain the production-cut agreement;31 Emphasizing risks to Iraqi production as tensions shifted from the Islamic State to the Kurdish Regional Government; Highlighting the likely continued decline, but not sharp cut-off, of Venezuelan production, due to the regime's ability to cling to power even as the conditions of production worsened.32 In addition, we were correct to fade various concerns regarding renewed tensions in Qatar, Yemen, and Lebanon throughout the year. Despite the media narrative that the Middle East has become a cauldron of instability anew, our long-held view that all the players involved are constrained by domestic and material constraints has remained cogent. In particular, our view that Saudi Arabia would engage in serious social reforms bore fruit in 2017, with several moves by the ruling regime to evolve the country away from feudal monarchy.33 Going forward, a major risk to our view is the Trump administration policy towards Iran, our top Black Swan risk for 2018. Marko Papic, Senior Vice President Chief Geopolitical Strategist marko@bcaresearch.com Matt Gertken, Associate Vice President Geopolitical Strategy mattg@bcaresearch.com Jesse Anak Kuri, Research Analyst jesse.kuri@bcaresearch.com Ekaterina Shtrevensky, Research Assistant ekaterinas@bcaresearch.com 1 Due to the high volume of footnotes in this report, we have decided to include them at the end of the document. For a review of our past Strategic Outlooks, please visit gps.bcaresearch.com. 2 For the rest of our 2018 Outlook, please see BCA Geopolitical Strategy Special Report, "Five Black Swans In 2018," dated December 6, 2017, and "Three Questions For 2018," dated December 13, 2017, available at gps.bcaresearch.com. 3 Please see BCA Geopolitical Strategy, "Turkey: Military Adventurism And Capital Controls," dated December 7, 2016, "South Africa: Back To Reality," dated April 5, 2017, "Brazil: Politics Giveth And Politics Taketh Away," dated May 24, 2017, "South Africa: Crisis Of Expectations," dated June 28, 2017, "Update On Emerging Markets: Malaysia, Mexico, And The United States Of America," dated August 9, 2017, available at gps.bcaresearch.com. 4 Please see BCA Geopolitical Strategy Weekly Report, "Trump, Day One: Let The Trade War Begin," dated January 18, 2017, available at gps.bcaresearch.com. 5 Please see BCA Geopolitical Strategy Weekly Report, "G19," dated July 12, 2017, available at gps.bcaresearch.com. 6 Please see BCA Geopolitical Strategy and Global Investment Strategy Special Report, "NAFTA - Populism Vs. Pluto-Populism," dated November 10, 2017, available at gps.bcaresearch.com. 7 The outcome at the WTO Buenos Aires summit last week offered a possible way out of confrontation between the Trump administration and the WTO. It featured Europe and Japan taking a tougher line on trade violations, namely China, to respond to the Trump administration grievances that, unaddressed, could escalate into a full-fledged Trump-WTO clash. 8 Please see BCA Geopolitical Strategy Weekly Report, "How Long Can The 'Trump Put' Last?" dated June 14, 2017 and "U.K. Election: The Median Voter Has Spoken," dated June 9, 2017, available at gps.bcaresearch.com. 9 Please see BCA Geopolitical Strategy Special Report, "U.K. Election Preview," dated February 26, 2015, available at gps.bcaresearch.com. 10 Please see BCA Geopolitical Strategy and European Investment Strategy Special Report, "With Or Without You: The U.K. And The EU," dated March 17, 2016, available at gps.bcaresearch.com. 11 Please see BCA Geopolitical Strategy Weekly Report, "The 'What Can You Do For Me?' World?" dated January 25, 2017, available at gps.bcaresearch.com. 12 Please see BCA Geopolitical Strategy Weekly Report, "Buy In May And Enjoy Your Day!" dated April 26, 2017, available at gps.bcaresearch.com. 13 Please see BCA Geopolitical Strategy Weekly Report, "Political Risks Are Overstated In 2017," dated April 5, 2017 and "Political Risks Are Understated In 2017," dated April 12, 2017, available at gps.bcaresearch.com. 14 Please see BCA Geopolitical Strategy Special Report, "U.S. Election: Outcomes And Investment Implications," dated November 9, 2016, available at gps.bcaresearch.com. 15 Please see BCA Geopolitical Strategy Special Report, "Break Glass In Case Of Impeachment," dated May 17, 2017, available at gps.bcaresearch.com. 16 Please see BCA Geopolitical Strategy Special Report, "After BREXIT, N-EXIT?" dated July 13, 2016, available at gps.bcaresearch.com. 17 Please see BCA Geopolitical Strategy Special Report, "Will Marine Le Pen Win?" dated November 16, 2016, available at gps.bcaresearch.com. 18 Please see BCA Geopolitical Strategy Special Report, "The French Revolution," dated February 3, 2017 and "Climbing The Wall Of Worry In Europe," dated February 15, 2017, available at gps.bcaresearch.com. 19 Please see BCA Geopolitical Strategy Special Report, "Europe's Divine Comedy Part II: Italy In Purgatorio," dated June 21, 2017, available at gps.bcaresearch.com. 20 Please see BCA Geopolitical Strategy and European Investment Strategy Special Report, "Secession In Europe: Scotland And Catalonia," dated May 14, 2014 and "Why So Serious?" dated October 11, 2017, available at gps.bcaresearch.com. 21 Please see BCA Geopolitical Strategy Weekly Report, "Five Questions On Europe," dated March 22, 2017, available at gps.bcaresearch.com. 22 Please see BCA Geopolitical Strategy Monthly Report, "Throwing The Baby (Globalization) Out With The Bath Water (Deflation)," dated July 13, 2016, available at gps.bcaresearch.com. 23 Please see BCA Geopolitical Strategy Monthly Report, "De-Globalization," dated November 9, 2016, available at gps.bcaresearch.com. 24 Please see BCA Geopolitical Strategy We," dated June 28, 2017, "Update On Emerging Markets: Malaysia, Mexico, And The United States Of America," dated August 9, 2017, available at gps.bcaresearch.com. 25 We argued in our 2017 Strategic Outlook that while Xi's faction would gain a majority on the Politburo Standing Committee, he would maintain a reasonable balance and refrain from excluding opposing factions from power. We expected that factional struggle would flare back up into the open (as with the ouster of Sun Zhengcai), and that Xi would retire anti-corruption chief Wang Qishan, but not that Xi would avoid promoting a successor for 2022 to the Politburo Standing Committee. 26 Please see BCA Geopolitical Strategy Special Report, "China: Looking Beyond The Party Congress," dated July 19, 2017, available at gps.bcaresearch.com. 27 Please see BCA Geopolitical Strategy "North Korea: A Red Herring No More?" in Monthly Report, "Partem Mirabilis," dated April 13, 2016 and "Strategic Outlook 2017: We Are All Geopolitical Strategists Now," dated December 14, 2016, available at gps.bcaresearch.com. 28 Please see BCA Geopolitical Strategy Special Report, "North Korea: Beyond Satire," dated April 19, 2017, available at gps.bcaresearch.com. 29 Please see BCA Geopolitical Strategy Weekly Report, "Can Equities And Bonds Continue To Rally?" dated September 20, 2017, available at gps.bcaresearch.com. 30 If you are an investor with even a passing interest in commodities and oil, you must review the work of our colleagues Robert Ryan and Matt Conlan. 31 Please see BCA Geopolitical Strategy and Global Investment Strategy Special Report, "Forget About The Middle East?" dated January 13, 2017, available at gps.bcaresearch.com. 32 Please see BCA Geopolitical Strategy Special Report, "Venezuela: Oil Market Rebalance Is Too Little, Too Late," dated May 17, 2017, available at gps.bcaresearch.com. 33 Please see BCA Geopolitical Strategy Special Report, "The Middle East: Separating The Signal From The Noise," dated November 15, 2017, available at gps.bcaresearch.com.

Recommended Allocation Highlights We are late cycle. Strong growth could turn in 2018 from a positive for risk assets into a negative. More risk-averse investors may thus want to turn cautious. But the last year of a bull run can be profitable, and we don't expect a recession until late 2019. For now, therefore, our recommendations remain pro-risk and pro-cyclical. We may turn more defensive in 2H 2018 if the Fed tightens above equilibrium. We expect inflation to pick up in 2018, which will lead the Fed to hike maybe four times. This will push long rates to 3%, and strengthen the U.S. dollar. Equities should outperform bonds in this environment. We prefer euro zone and Japanese equities over U.S., and remain underweight EM. Late-cycle sectors such as Financials and Industrials, should do well. We also favor corporate bonds and private equity. Feature Overview Fin de cycle Global economic growth in 2017 was robust for the first time since the Global Financial Crisis (Chart 1). Forecasts for 2018 put growth slightly lower, but are likely to be revised up. However, as the year rolls on, the strong economic momentum may turn from being a positive for risk assets into a negative. U.S. output is now above potential, according to IMF estimates. As Chart 2 shows, historically recessions - and consequently equity bear markets - have usually come within a year or two of the output gap turning positive. With the economy operating above capacity, inflation pressures force the Fed to tighten monetary policy, which eventually causes a slowdown. Chart 1Growth Finally On A Firm Footing Global Growth Has Accelerated Chart 2Recessions Follow Output Gap Closing That is exactly how BCA sees the next couple of years panning out, leading to a recession perhaps in the second half of 2019. U.S. inflation was soft in 2017, but underlying inflation pressures are picking up, with core CPI inflation having bottomed, and small companies saying they are raising prices (Chart 3). Add to that wage pressures (with unemployment heading below 4% in 2018), tax cuts (which might boost growth by 0.2-0.3% points in their first year) and a higher oil price (we expect Brent to average $67 a barrel during the year), and core PCE inflation is likely to rise to 2%, in line with the Fed's expectations. This means the market is too sanguine about the risk of monetary tightening in the U.S. It has priced in less than two rates hikes in 2018, compared to the Fed's three dots, and almost nothing after that (Chart 4). If inflation picks up as we expect, four rate hikes in 2018 could be on the cards. Chart 3Inflation Pressures Picking Up Chart 4Market Still Underpricing Fed Hikes The consequences of this are that bond yields are likely to rise. Despite a significant market repricing since September of Fed behavior, long-term rates have not risen much, leading to a flattening yield curve (Chart 5). The market has essentially priced in that inflation will not rebound and that, consequently, the Fed will be making a policy mistake by hiking further. If, therefore, we are correct that inflation does reach 2%, the yield curve would be likely to steepen over the next six months, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield reaching 3% by mid-year. Other developed economies, however, have less urgency to tighten monetary policy and we, therefore, see the U.S. dollar appreciating. The only other major economy with a positive output gap currently is Germany (Chart 6). However, the ECB will continue to set policy for the weaker members of the euro area, and output gaps in France (-1.8% of GDP), Italy (-1.6%) and Spain (-0.7%) remain significantly negative. In the absence of inflation pressures, the ECB won't raise rates until late 2019. Japan, too, continues to struggle to bring inflation up the BOJ's 2% target and the Yield Curve Control policy will therefore stay in place, meaning that a rise in global rates will weaken the yen. Chart 5Is Fed Making A Policy Mistake? Chart 6Still A Lot Of Negative Output Gaps This sort of late-cycle environment is a tricky one for investors. The catalysts for strong performance in equities that we foresaw a few months ago - U.S. tax cuts and upside surprises in earnings - have now largely played out. Global earnings will probably rise next year by around 10-12%, in line with analysts' forecasts. With multiples likely to slip a little as the Fed tightens, high single-digit performance is the best that investors should expect from equities. The macro environment which we expect, would be more negative for bonds than positive for equities. That argues for the stock-to-bond ratio to continue to rise until closer to the next recession (Chart 7). And, for now, none of the recession indicators we have been consistently monitoring over the past months is flashing a warning signal (Chart 8). Chart 7Stock-To-Bond Ratio Likely To Rise Further Chart 8Recession Warning Signals Still Not Flashing More risk-averse investors might chose to reduce their exposure to risk assets now, given how close we are to the end of the cycle. But this would be at the risk of leaving some money on the table, since the last year of a bull run can often be the most profitable (remember 1999?). We, therefore, maintain our recommendation for pro-cyclical and pro-risk tilts: overweight equities versus bonds, overweight credit, overweight higher-beta equity markets and sectors, and a preference towards riskier alternative assets. We may move towards a more defensive stance in mid to late 2018, when we see clearer signs that the Fed has tightened above equilibrium or that the risk of recession is rising. Garry Evans, Senior Vice President Global Asset Allocation garry@bcaresearch.com What Our Clients Are Asking What Will Be The Impact Of The U.S. Tax Cuts? It is not a done deal, but it still seems likely (notwithstanding the Democratic victory in Alabama) that the U.S. House and Senate will agree a joint tax bill to pass before the end of the year. Since the two current bills have only minor differences, it is possible to make some estimates of the macro and sector impacts of the tax reform. The Joint Committee on Taxation estimates that the cuts will reduce government revenue by $1.4 trillion over 10 years - or $1 trillion (5% of GDP) once positive effects on growth are accounted for. The Treasury argues that tax reform (plus deregulation and infrastructure development) will push GDP growth to 2.9% and therefore government revenues will increase by $300 billion. BCA's estimate is that GDP growth will be boosted by 0.2-0.3% in 2018 and 2019.1 For businesses, the key tax changes are: 1) a reduction in the headline corporate rate from 35% to 21%; 2) immediate expensing of capital investment; 3) a limit to deduction of interest expenses to 30% of taxable income; 4) a move to a territorial tax system from a worldwide one, with a 10% tax on repatriation of past profits held overseas; 5) curbs for some deductions, such as R&D, domestic production and tax-loss carry-forwards. Corporate tax cuts will give a one-off boost to earnings, since the effective tax rate is currently over 25% (Chart 9, panel 1), with telecoms, utilities and industrials likely to be the biggest beneficiaries. This is not fully priced into stocks, since companies with high tax rates have seen their stock prices rise only moderately (Chart 9, panel 2). BCA's sector strategists expect that capex will especially be boosted: they estimate that the one-year depreciation increases net present value by 14% (Table 1).2 This should be positive for the Industrials sector (supplying the capital goods) and for Financials (which will see increased demand for loans). We are overweight both. Chart 9Tax Cuts Should Boost Earnings Table 1 Is Bitcoin A Bubble, And What Happens When It Bursts? The recent surge in prices (Chart 10) of virtual currencies has pushed Bitcoin and aggregate cryptocurrency market cap to $275 billion and $500 billion respectively. The recent violent run-up certainly bears a close resemblance to classic bubbles, but the impact of a sharp correction should be minimal on the real economy and traditional capital markets. As mentioned above, the market cap of cryptocurrencies has reached $500 billion. Globally, there is about $6 trillion in currency3 outstanding, so the value of virtual currencies is now 8% that of traditional fiat currency. Additionally, an estimated 1000 people own about 40% of the world's total bitcoin, for an average of about $105 million per person. At the moment, the macro impact has been constrained by the fact that most people are buying bitcoins as a store of value (Chart 11) or vehicle for speculation, rather than as a medium of exchange. However, when the public begins to regard them as legitimate substitutes for traditional fiat currencies, their impact will be felt on the real economy. Chart 10A Classic Bubble Chart 11Bitcoin Trading Volume By Top Three Currencies That would raise the issue of regulation. The U.S. government generates close to $70 billion per year as "seigniorage revenue." Governments across the world have no intention of losing this revenue, and would most likely introduce their own competitors to bitcoin. Until then, the biggest potential impact of these private currencies might be to spur inflation in the fiat currencies in which their prices are measured. That would be bad for government bonds, but potentially good for stocks. A further risk - and a similarity with the real estate bubble of 2007 - is the use of leverage. The news of a Tokyo-based exchange (BitFyler) offering up to 15x leverage for the purchase of bitcoins has spooked investors. However, the U.S. housing market is valued at $29.6 trillion, almost 60 times that of cryptocurrencies. Finally, the 19th century free banking era in the U.S., which at one point saw 8000 different currencies in circulation, experienced multiple banking crises. A world with myriad private currencies all competing with one another would be similarly unstable. Why Did The U.S. Dollar Weaken In 2017, And Where Will It Go In 2018? Chart 12Positioning And Relative Rates Supportive For USD We were wrong to be bullish on U.S. dollar at the start of 2017. We think the dollar weakness during most of the year can be attributed to the fact that investors were massively long the dollar at the end of 2016 (Chart 12, panel 2), which made the market particularly vulnerable to surprises. Several surprises did come: inflation softened in the U.S. but strengthened in the euro area. There were also positive geopolitical surprises in Europe - for example the victory of Emmanuel Macron in the French presidential election - while the failure to repeal Obamacare in the U.S. raised investors' concerns on the administration's ability to undertake fiscal stimulus. As a result, the U.S. dollar depreciated against euro despite widening interest rate differentials (Chart 12 panel 4) in 2017. Chart 13late Cycle Outperformance Since investors are now aggressively short the dollar, the hurdle for the greenback to deliver positive surprises is much lower than a year ago. Since the Senate passed the Republican tax bill in early December, we have already seen some recovery in the dollar (Chart 12, panel 1). As the labor market continues to firm, with GDP running above potential, U.S. inflation should finally start to pick up in 2018, which will allow the Fed to hike rates, possibly as many as four times during the year. This will contrast with the macro situation overseas: Japan and Europe are likely to continue loose monetary policy to maintain the momentum in their economies. All this should be supportive of the dollar. Are Convertible Bonds Attractive Over The Next 12 Months? With valuations for traditional assets expensive and investors' thirst for yield continuing, the market is in need of alternative sources of return. Convertible bonds offer a hybrid credit/equity exposure, giving investors the option to participate in rising equity markets but with less risk. An allocation to convertibles could prove attractive for the following reasons: Convertible bonds typically outperform high-yield debt in the late stages of bull markets, because of their relatively lower exposure to credit spreads. Junk spreads have a history of starting to widen before equity bear markets begin. Fifty percent of the convertibles index comprises issuance from small-cap and mid-cap firms. Although equity valuations are expensive, prices should continue to rise as long as inflation stays low. Additionally, our U.S. Investment Strategy service thinks that small-cap equities will outperform large caps in the coming months, partly because the likely cuts in U.S. corporate taxes will disproportionately benefit smaller companies. Convertible bonds do appear somewhat cheap relative to equities (Chart 13, panel 3) but, on balance, there is not a strong valuation case for the asset class. Equities appear fairly valued relative to junk bonds, and convertibles are trading at an elevated investment premium. However, valuation is not likely to be a significant headwind to the typical late-cycle outperformance of convertibles versus high yield. biggest near-term risk for convertibles relative to high yield stems from the technology sector, which makes up 35% of the convertibles index. Technology convertible bonds have strongly outperformed their high-yield counterparts in recent months (Chart 13, panel 4), and are possibly due for a period of underperformance. We recommend investors stay cautious on technology convertibles. Other Than U.S. Tips, What Other Inflation-Linked Bonds Do You Like? Our research shows that inflation-linked bonds (ILBs) are a good inflation hedge in a rising inflationary environment.4 With our house view of rising inflation in 2018, we have been overweight U.S. Tips over nominal Treasury bonds as the U.S. is the most liquid market for inflation-linked bonds, with a market cap of over US$ 1.2 trillion. Outside the U.S., we favor ILBs in Japan and Australia, while we suggest investors to avoid ILBs in the U.K. and Germany (even though the U.K. linkers' market is the second largest after the U.S.), for the following two key reasons: First, even though inflation is below target in Japan, Australia and the euro area, while above target in the U.K., in all of these markets, inflation has bottomed, as shown in Chart 14. Second, our breakeven fair-value models, which are based on trade-weighted currencies, the Brent oil price in local currencies, and stock-to-bond total-return ratios, indicate that ILBs are undervalued in Japan and Australia, while overvalued in the U.K. and Germany, as shown in Chart 15. Chart 14Inflation Dynamics Chart 15Where to Buy Inflation? The shorter duration (in real terms) of ILBs are an added bonus which fits well with our overall underweight duration positioning in the government bond universe. Global Economy Overview: Growth in developed economies remains strong and there is little in the data to suggest it will slow. This is likely to push up inflation and interest rates, especially in the U.S., over the next six to 12 months. Prospects for emerging markets, however, are less encouraging given that China is likely to slow moderately as it pushes ahead with reforms. U.S.: U.S. growth momentum remains very strong. GDP growth in the past two quarters has come in over 3%, and NowCasts for Q4 point to 2.9-3.9%. The Citigroup Economic Surprise Index (Chart 16, panel 1) has surged since June, and the Manufacturing ISM is at 53.9 and the Non-Manufacturing at 57.4 (panel 2). The worst that can be said is that momentum will be unable to continue at this rate but, with business confidence high, wage growth likely to pick up in 2018, and some positive impacts from tax cuts, no significant slowdown is in sight. Euro Area: Given its stronger cyclicality and ties to the global trade cycle, euro zone growth has surprised on the upside even more strongly than in the U.S. The Manufacturing PMI reached 60.6 in December (its highest level since 2000), and GDP growth in Q3 accelerated to 2.6% QoQ annualized. The euro's strength in 2017 seems to have done little to dent growth, and even weaker members of the euro zone such as Italy have seen improving GDP growth (1.7% in Q3). With the ECB reining back monetary easing only slightly, and banking problems shelved for now, growth should remain resilient in early 2018. Japan: Retail sales saw some weakness in October (-0.2% YoY), probably because of bad weather, but elsewhere data looks robust. Q3 GDP came in at 1.3% QoQ annualized and export growth remains strong at 14% YoY. There are even some signs of life in the domestic economy, with wages finally picking up a little (+0.9% YoY), driven by labor shortages among part-time workers, and consumer confidence at a four-year high. Inflation has been slow to rise, but at least core core inflation (the Bank of Japan's favorite measure) is now in positive territory at +0.2%. Emerging Markets: Chinese credit and monetary series, historically good lead indicators for the real economy, continue to decline (M2 growth in October of 8.8% was the lowest since data started in 1996). But, for now, economic growth has held up, with the Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMIs both stably above 50 (Chart 17, panel 3). Key will be how much the government's moves to deleverage the financial system and implement structural reform in 2018 will slow growth. Elsewhere in emerging markets, economic growth remains sluggish, with GDP growth in Brazil barely rebounding to 1.4% YoY, Russia to 1.8%, and India slowing to 6.3% (down from over 9% in early 2016). Chart 16Growth Momentum Very Strong Chart 17Will China And EM Slow in 2018? Interest rates: We expect U.S. inflation to pick up in 2018, as the lagged effects of 2017's stronger growth and the weak dollar start to come through, amid higher oil prices and rising wages. We, along with the Fed, expect core PCE inflation to rise to 2% during the year. This means the Fed is likely to raise rates four times, compared to market expectations of twice. Consequently, we see the 10-year Treasury yield over 3% by mid-year. In the euro zone, the still-large output gap means inflation is less likely to surprise on the upside, allowing the ECB to keep negative rates until well into 2019. The Bank of Japan is unlikely to alter its Yield Curve Control, given the signal this would send to the market when inflation expectations are still well below its 2% target (Chart 17, panel 4). Chart 18Equities: Priced for Perfection Global Equities Still Cautiously Optimistic: Our pro-cyclical equity positioning in 2017 worked very well in terms of country allocation (overweight euro zone and Japan in the DM universe) and global sector allocation (favoring cyclicals vs defensives). The two calls that did not pan out were underweight EM equities vs. DM equities, which was partially offset by our positive stance on China within the EM universe, and the overweight of Energy, which was the worst performing sector of the year. The stellar equity performance in 2017 was largely driven by strong earnings growth. Margins improved in both DM and EM; earnings grew in all sectors, and analysts remained upbeat (Chart 18). Another important contributor to 2017 performance was the extraordinary performance of the Tech sector, especially in China: globally, tech returned 41.9%, outperforming the MSCI all country index by 18.9%. GAA's philosophy is to take risk where it is mostly likely be rewarded. In July, we took profits in our Tech overweight and used the funds to upgrade Financials to overweight from neutral. Then in October we started to reduce tracking risk by scaling down our active country bets, closing our overweight in the U.S. to reduce the underweight in EM. BCA's house view is for synchronized global growth to continue in 2018, but a possible recession in late 2019. We are a little concerned that equity markets are priced for perfection, given that our earnings model indicates a deceleration in the coming months mostly due to a base effect. As such, our combination of "close to shore" country allocation and "pro-cyclical" sector allocation is appropriate for the next 9-12 months. Country Allocation: Still Favor DM Over EM Chart 19China: From Tailwind to Headwind for EM ? Our longstanding call of underweight EM vs. DM since December 2013 was gradually reduced in scale, first in March 2016 (to -5 percentage points from -9) and then in October 2017 (further to -2 points). Going forward, investors should continue to maintain this slight underweight position in EM vs. DM. First, our positive stance on China proved to be timely as shown in Chart 19, panel 4, with China outperforming EM by 54.1% since March 2016, and by 18.8% in 2017. Back then our positive stance on China was supported by attractive valuations (bottom panel) and our view that Chinese politics would be supportive for global growth in the run up to the 19th Party Congress. Now BCA's Geopolitical Strategists think that "China politics are shifting from a tailwind to a headwind for global growth and EM assets".5 In addition, Chinese equities are no longer valued at a discount to the EM average (bottom panel). Second, BCA's currency view is for continued strength in the USD, especially against emerging market currencies. This does not bode well for EM/DM performance in US dollar terms (Chart 19, panel 1). Third, EM money growth leads profit growth by about three months (Chart 19, panel 2). The rolling over in money growth indicates that the currently strong earnings growth may lose steam going forward, while relative valuation is in the fair-value zone (Chart 19, panel 3). Sector Allocation: Stay Overweight Energy Our pro-cyclical sector positioning has worked well in aggregate as the market-cap-weighted cyclical index significantly outperformed the defensive index in 2017. This positioning is also in line with BCA's house view of synchronized global growth and higher inflation expectations, which translates into two major sector themes: capex recovery and rising interest rates. (Please see detailed sector positioning on page 24.) Within the cyclical space, however, the Energy sector did not perform as expected in 2017 (Chart 20). It returned only 3.4%, underperforming the global aggregate by 19.6%. For the next 9-12 months, we recommend investors to stay overweight this underdog of 2017. Chart 20Energy Stocks Lagging Oil Price First, the energy sector is a major beneficiary from a capex recovery. There are already signs of a recovery in basic resources investment in the U.S.6 Second, the energy sector's relative return lagged oil price performance in 2017. Given the generally close correlation between earnings and the oil price, and between analyst earnings revisions and OECD oil inventory growth, earnings in the sector should outpace the broad market. Third, based on price-to-cash earnings, the energy sector is still trading at about a 30% discount to the broad market, and offers a much higher dividend yield (about 1.2 points higher) than the broad market. Even though these discounts are in line with historical averages, they are still supportive of an overweight. Government Bonds Maintain Slight Underweight Duration. One important theme for 2018 will be a resumption of the cyclical uptrend in inflation.7 The implications are that both nominal bond yields and break-even inflation rates will be higher in 2018. We have been underweight duration in government bonds since July 2016. Now with the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield at 2.35%, much lower than its fair value of 2.81%, there is considerable upside risk for global bond yields from current low levels. Investors should continue to underweight duration in global government bonds Maintain Overweight Tips Vs. Treasuries. The base-case forecast from our U.S. bond strategists is that the Tips breakeven rate will rise to 2.4-2.5% as U.S. core PCE reaches the Fed's 2% target, probably sometime in the middle of 2018. Compared to the current level of 1.87%, 10-yr Tips would have upside of 33-38 bps, an important source of return in the low-return fixed-income space (Chart 21, bottom panel). In terms of relative value, Tips are now slightly cheaper than nominal bonds, also supportive of the overweight stance. Underweight Canadian Government Bonds. BCA's Global Fixed Income Strategy has taken profits in their short Canada vs. U.S. and U.K. tactical position, as the market has become too aggressive in pricing in more rate hikes in Canada. Strategically, however, the underweight of Canada (Chart 22) in a hedged global portfolio is still appropriate because: 1) the output gap has closed in Canada, according to Bank of Canada estimates, and so any additional growth will translate into higher inflation; and 2) the rising CAD will not deter the BoC from more rate hikes if the oil prices remain strong. Chart 21U.S. Bond Yields Have Further To Rise Chart 22Strategic Underweight Canadian Bonds Corporate Bonds Our overweights through most of 2017 on spread product worked well: U.S. investment grade (IG) bonds returned around 290 bps over Treasuries in the year to end-November, and high-yield bonds almost 600 bps. Returns over the next 12 months are unlikely to be as attractive. Spreads (Chart 24) are now close to historic lows: the U.S. IG bond spread, at 90 bps, is only about 30 bps above its all-time record. High-yield valuations look a little more attractive: based on our model of probable defaults over the next 12 months, the default-adjusted spread over U.S. Treasuries is likely to be around 240 bps (Chart 25). In both cases, however, investors should expect little further spread contraction, meaning that credit is now no more than a carry trade. However, in an environment where rates remain fairly low and investors continue to stretch for yield, that pick-up will remain attractive in the absence of a significant turn-down in the economic cycle. The key to watch is the shape of the yield curve. An inverted yield curve in history has been an excellent indictor of the end of the credit cycle. We expect the yield curve to steepen somewhat in H1 2018, before flattening again and then inverting late in the year. Spread product is likely, therefore, to produce decent returns until that point. Thereafter, however, the deterioration of U.S. corporate health over the past three years (Chart 23) could mean a sharp sell-off in corporate bonds. This might be exacerbated by the recent popularity of open-ended mutual funds and ETFs: a small widening of spreads could be magnified by a panicked sell-off in such funds. Chart 23Rising Leverage May Worsen Sell-Off Chart 24Credit Spreads Close To Record Lows Chart 25But Default - Adjusted, Junk Still Looks Attractive Commodities Energy: Bullish Energy prices performed strongly in H2 2017, and we expect bullish sentiment to continue. OPEC 2.0 is likely to maintain production discipline, and will maintain its promised 1.8mm b/d production cuts through the end of 2018. Our estimates for global demand growth are higher than those of other forecasters. This, along with potential unplanned production outages in Iraq, Libya and Venezuela (together accounting for 7.4mm b/d of production at present), drives our above-consensus price forecast of $67 a barrel for Brent crude during 2018. Industrial Metals: Neutral Since China accounts for more than 50% of world base-metal consumption, prices will continue to be highly dependent on developments there. (Chart 26, panel 4). Since the government is trying to accelerate environmental and supply-side reforms, domestic production capacity for base metals will shrink, which will be a positive for global metals prices. However, a focus on deleveraging in the financial sector and restructuring certain industries could slow Chinese GDP growth, reducing base-metal demand. Precious Metals: Neutral Gold has risen by 12% in 2017, supported by an uncertain geopolitical environment coupled with low interest rates. We believe that geopolitical uncertainties will persist and may even intensify, and that inflation may rise in the U.S., which would be positives for gold (Chart 26, panel 3). Based on BCA's view that stock market could be at risk from the middle of 2018,8 a moderate gold holding is warranted as a safe-haven asset. However, rising interest rate and a potentially stronger U.S. dollar are likely to limit the upside for gold. Currencies USD: The currency is down over 6% on a trade-weighted basis over the past 12 months (Chart 27). Looking into 2018, the USD is likely to perform well in the first half. U.S. inflation should gather steam in the first two to three quarters, and the Fed will be able at least to follow its dot plot - something interest rate markets are not ready for. As investors remain short the USD, upside risk to U.S. interest rates should result in a higher dollar. Chart 26Bullish Oil, Neutral Metals Chart 27Dollar Likely To Appreciate EM/JPY: Carry trades are a key mechanism for redistributing global liquidity, and they have recently begun to lose steam. A crucial reason for this has been the policy tightening in China which has been the key driver of growth in EM economies. Additionally, Japanese flows have been chasing momentum into EM assets. Further tightening in EM could reverse the flows and initiate a flight to safety, favoring the yen relative to EM currencies. CHF: The currency continues to trade at a 5% premium to its PPP fair value against the euro. However, after considering Switzerland's net international investment position at 130% of GDP, the trade-weighted CHF trades in line with fair value. The CHF will continue to behave as a risk-off currency, and so long as global volatility remains well contained, EUR/CHF will experience appreciating pressure. GBP: Sterling continues to look cheap, trading at an 18% discount to PPP against the USD. However, Brexit remains a key problem. If future immigration is limited, the U.K. will see lower trend growth relative to its neighbors, forcing its equilibrium real neutral rate downward. Consequently, it will be more difficult to finance the current account deficit of 5% of GDP. Until negotiations with the EU come closer to completion, the pound will continue to offer limited reward and plenty of volatility. Alternatives Chart 28Favor Private Equity and Farmland Alternative assets under management (AUM) have reached a record $7.7 trillion in 2017. Lower fees and a broader range of investment types have helped attract more capital. Private equity remains the most popular choice,9 driven by its strong performance and transparency. Many investors have also shifted part of their allocations toward potentially higher-return private debt programs. Return Enhancers: Favor Private Equity Vs. Hedge Funds In 2017 so far, private equity has returned 12.1%, whereas hedge funds have managed only a 5.9% return (Chart 28). We expect private-equity fund-raising to continue into 2018, but with a larger focus on niche strategies with more favorable valuations. Additionally, deploying capital gradually not only provides for vintage-year diversification, but also creates opportunities for investors to benefit from potential market corrections. We continue to favor private equity over hedge funds outside of recessions. During a recession, we recommend investors take shelter in hedge funds with a macro mandate. Inflation Hedges: Favor Direct Real Estate Vs. Commodity Futures In 2017 to date, direct real estate has returned 5.1%, whereas commodity futures are down over 3.7%. Direct real estate as an asset class continues to provide valuable diversification, lower volatility, steady yields and an illiquidity premium. However, a slowdown in U.S. commercial real estate (CRE) has made us more cautious on the overall asset class. With regards to the commodity complex, the long-term transition of the global economy to a more renewables-focused energy base will continue the structural decline in commodity demand. We continue to stress the structural and long-term nature of our negative recommendation on commodities. Volatility Dampeners: Favor Farmland & Timberland Vs. Structured Products In 2017 to date, farmland and timberland have returned 3.2% and 2.1% respectively, whereas structured products are up 3.7%. Farmland continues to outperform timberland. The slow U.S. housing recovery has added downward pressure to timberland returns. Investors can reduce the volatility of a traditional multi-asset portfolio with inclusion of farm and timber assets. For structured products, low spreads in an environment of tightening commercial real estate lending standards and falling CRE loan demand, warrant an underweight. Risks To Our View We think upside and downside risks to our central scenario for 2018 - slowing but robust economic growth, and continuing moderate outperformance of risk assets - are roughly evenly balanced. On the negative side, perhaps the biggest risk is China, where the slowdown already suggested in the monetary data (Chart 29) could be exacerbated if the government pushes ahead aggressively with structural reforms. Geopolitical risks, which the market over-emphasized in 2017, seem under-estimated now.10 U.S. trade policy, Italian elections, and North Korea all have potential to derail markets. Also, when the U.S. yield curve is as flat as it is currently, small risks can be blown up into big sell-offs. This is particularly so given over-stretched valuations for almost all asset classes. Chart 29China Monetary Conditions Suggest A Slowdown Table 2How Will Trump Try To Influence The Fed? The most likely positive surprise could come from a dovish Fed. New Fed chair Jay Powell is something of an unknown quantity, and the White House could use the three remaining Fed vacancies to push the Fed to keep rates low, so as not to offset the positive effect of the tax cuts. Without these new appointees, the Fed would have a slightly more hawkish bias in 2018 (Table 2). The intellectual argument for hiking only slowly would be, as Janet Yellen said last month: "It can be quite dangerous to allow inflation to drift down and not to achieve over time a central bank's inflation target." The Fed has missed its 2% target for five years. It is possible to imagine a situation where the Fed increasingly makes excuses to keep monetary policy easy (encouraged, for example, by a short-lived sell-off in markets or a slowdown in China) and this causes a late-cycle blow-out, similar to 1999. 1 Please see Global Investment Strategy Weekly Report, "When To Get Out," dated December 8, 2017 available at gis.bcaresearch.com. 2 Please see U.S. Equity Strategy Insight Report, "Tax Cuts Are Here - Sector Implications," dated December 12, 2017, available at uses.bcaresearch.com. 3 CBNK Survey: Monetary Base, Currency in Circulation. Source: IMF - International Financial Statistics. 4 Please see Global Investment Strategy Special Report, "Two Virtuous Dollar Circles," dated October 28, 2016, available at gis.bcaresearch.com. 5 Please see Geopolitical Strategy Special Report, "China: Party Congress Ends ... So What?" dated November 1, 2017, available at gps.bcaresearch.com. 6 Please see U.S. Equity Strategy Weekly Report, "High-Conviction Calls," dated November 27, 2017, available at uses.bcaresearch.com. 7 Please see The Bank Credit Analyst, "Outlook 2018 - Policy And The Markets: On A Collision Course," dated 20 November 2017, available at bca.bcaresearch.com. 8 Please see The Bank Credit Analyst, "Outlook 2018 - Policy And The Markets: On A Collision Course," dated November 20, 2017, available at bca.bcaresearch.com. 9 Source: BNY Mellon - The Race For Assets; Alternative Investments Surge Ahead. 10 Please see Geopolitical Strategy Weekly Report, "From Overstated To Understated Risks," dated November 22, 2017, available at gps.bcaresearch.com. GAA Asset Allocation

Highlights Geopolitical risks were overstated in 2017, but have now become understated; If Donald Trump becomes an early "lame duck" president, he will seek relevance abroad; This could mean a protectionist White House, or increased geopolitical tensions with Iran and North Korea; North Korean internal stability could come into question as economic sanctions begin to bite; Political risks in the U.K. and Italy could rise with markets overly complacent on both; Emerging markets, particularly Brazil and Mexico, will see renewed political risk. Feature Buoyant global growth, political stability in Europe, and steady policymakers' hands in China have fueled risk assets in 2017. As the year draws to a close, investors also have tax cuts in the U.S. to celebrate. Our high conviction view that tax cuts would happen - and that they would be fiscally profligate - is near the finish line.1 In making this call, we ignored the failure to repeal Obamacare, the "wisdom" of old "D.C. hands," and direct intelligence from a source inside the White House circle who swore tax reform would be revenue neutral. Throughout the year, BCA's Geopolitical Strategy remained confident that the GOP would ignore its fiscal conservative credentials and focus on the midterm elections.2 That election is increasingly looking like a bloodbath-in-the-making for the Republican Party (Chart 1). What of the latest opinion polls showing that the tax cuts are unpopular with half of all Americans? The polls also show that a solid one-third of all Americans remain in support of the Republican plan (Chart 2). We suspect - as do Republican strategists - that those are the Republicans who vote in midterm elections. Given the atrociously low turnout in midterm elections - just 36.4% of Americans voted in 2014 - Republicans need their base to turn out in November. The tax cuts are not about the wider American public but the Republican base. Chart 1Midterm Election: A Bloodbath? Chart 2Republican Base Supports Tax Cuts As we close the book on 2017, we look with trepidation towards 2018. Our main theme for next year is that the combination of economic stimulus from the tax cuts in the U.S. and structural reforms in China will create a U.S.-dollar-bullish policy mix that will combine into a headwind for global risk assets, particularly emerging market equities.3 However, in this report, we focus on some of the more exotic risks that investors may have to deal with. In particular we focus on five potential "black swans" - low probability, high market-impact events - that are neither on the market's radar nor the media's. To qualify for our list, the events must be: Unlikely: There must be less than a 20% probability that the event will occur in the next 12 months. Out of sight: The scenario we present should not be receiving media coverage, at least not as a serious market risk. Geopolitical: We must be able to identify the risk scenario through the lens of our geopolitical methodology. Genuinely unpredictable events - such as meteor strikes, pandemics, crippling cyber-attacks, solar flares, alien invasions, and failures in the computer program running the simulation that we call the universe - do not make the cut. Black Swan 1: Lame Duck Trump "Lame duck" presidents - leaders whose popularity late in their term has sunk so low that they can no longer affect policy - are said to be particularly adventurous in the foreign arena. While this adage has a spotty empirical record, there are several notable examples in recent memory.4 American presidents have few constitutional constraints when it comes to foreign policy. Therefore, when domestic constraints rise, U.S. presidents seek relevance abroad. Chart 3The Day After The Midterms, Trump's Overall Popularity Will Matter More Than That Among Republicans President Trump may become the earliest, and lamest, lame duck president in recent U.S. history. While his Republican support remains healthy, his overall popularity is well below the average presidential approval rating at this point in the political cycle (Chart 3). Based on these poll numbers, his party is likely to underperform in the upcoming midterm election (Chart 4). A Democrat-led House of Representatives would have the votes to begin impeachment, which we would then consider likely in 2019. As we have argued in our "impeachment handbook," the market impact of such a crisis would ultimately depend on market fundamentals and the global context, not political intrigue.5 Chart 4Trump Is Becoming A Liability For The GOP President Trump's political capital ahead of the midterm elections is based on his ability to influence Republican legislators. Despite low overall poll numbers, President Trump can use the threat of endorsing primary challengers against conservative peers in Congress to move his agenda in the legislature. He has effectively done this with tax cuts. However, the day after the midterm elections, President Trump's own numbers will matter for the GOP. Given that President Trump will be on the ballot in the 2020 general election, his low approval numbers with non-Republican voters will hang like an albatross around the party's neck. This is a serious issue, particularly given that 22 of the 33 Senators up for reelection in 2020 will be Republican.6 Robust economic growth and a roaring stock market have not boosted Trump's popularity so far. At the same time, a strong economy ready to translate into higher wages is about to be "pump-primed" by stimulative tax cuts (Chart 5). We would expect the result to be a stronger dollar, which should keep the U.S. trade deficit widening well into Trump's second year in office. At some point, this will become a sore political point, given Trump's protectionist rhetoric and his administration's focus on the trade balance as a key measure of U.S. power. Chart 5Wage Pressures Are Building What kind of adventures would we expect to see President Trump embark on in 2018? There are three prime candidates: China-U.S. trade war: The Trump administration started off with threats against China and then proceeded to negotiations. However, neither the North Korean situation nor the trade deficit has seen substantial improvement, and a lame duck Trump administration would be more likely to resort to serious punitive actions. Even improvements on the Korean peninsula would not necessarily prevent Washington from getting tougher on Beijing over trade, as the Trump administration will be driven by domestic politics. Investors should carefully watch whether the World Trade Organization deems China a "market economy," which could trigger a U.S. backlash, and whether the various investigations by U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross result in anti-dumping and countervailing duties being imposed more frequently on specific Chinese exports. Thus far, the empirical evidence suggests that the Trump administration has picked up the pace of protectionist rulings (Chart 6). Notably, the Trump administration claims that the Comprehensive Economic Dialogue has "stalled," and it is reviving deeper, structural demands on Chinese policymakers.7 Iran Jingoism: Rumors that Secretary of State Rex Tillerson may be replaced by CIA Director Mike Pompeo - who would be replaced at the CIA by Senator Tom Cotton - can only mean one thing: the White House has Iran in its sights. Both Pompeo and Cotton are hawks on Iran. The administration may be preparing to shift its focus from North Korea, where American allies in the region are urging caution, to the Middle East, where American allies in the region are urging aggression. Investors should watch whether Tillerson is removed and especially how Congress reacts to President Trump's decision on October 15 to decertify the Iran nuclear agreement (also called the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action or JCPOA). The Republican-controlled Congress has until December 15 to reimpose sanctions on Iran that were suspended as part of the deal, with merely a simple majority needed in both chambers. However, President Trump will also have an opportunity, as early as January, to end waivers on a slew of sanctions that were not covered under the JCPOA. North Korea: It would be natural to slot North Korea as first on our list of potential foreign policy adventures for President Trump. However, it does not really fit our qualification of a black swan. North Korea is not "out of sight." Additionally, President Trump has already broken with the tradition of previous administrations by upping the pressure on Pyongyang. In fact, a North Korean black swan would be if President Trump succeeded in breaking the regime in Pyongyang. To that scenario we turn next. Chart 6Trump: Game Changer In U.S. Trade Policy? Bottom Line: Geopolitics has not affected the markets in 2017, with risk assets reaching record highs and the VIX reaching record lows (Chart 7). This was our view throughout the year and we called for investors to "buy in May and have a nice day" as a result of our analysis.8 We do not see this as likely in 2018. The Trump administration has no credible legislative agenda after tax cuts. We expect Congress to stall as we enter the summer primary season and for the GOP to lose the House to the Democrats. President Trump is an astute political analyst and will sense these developments before they happen. There is a good chance that he will attempt to sway the election and pre-empt his lame duck status with an aggressive foreign policy. Chart 72017 Goldilocks: S&P 500 Up, VIX Down Investment implications are twofold. First, we continue to recommend an equally weighted basket of Swiss 10-year bonds and gold as a portfolio hedge.9 Second, risk premium for oil prices should rise in 2018. Not only is the supply-demand balance favorable for oil prices, but geopolitical risks are likely to rise as well. Black Swan 2: A Coup In Pyongyang Our colleague Peter Berezin, BCA's Chief Global Strategist, has suggested that a coup d'état against Supreme Leader Kim Jong-un could be a black swan trigger that spooks the markets.10 While Peter used the scenario as a tongue-in-cheek way to weave Kim into a narrative that tells of a late 2019 recession, we have long raised North Korean domestic politics as the true Korean black swan.11 Here we entertain Peter's idea for three reasons.12 First, China has upped the economic pressure on Pyongyang. Under Kim Jong-un, the North Korean state has attempted some limited economic "opening up," namely to China. But the attempt to finalize the nuclear deterrent has delayed an already precarious process. There has now been a $617 million drop in Chinese imports from the country since the beginning of the year (Chart 8), with coal imports particularly affected (Chart 9). China has also pulled back on tourism. Meanwhile, North Korea's imports of Chinese goods have risen, which suggests that the country's current account balance may be widening. At some point, if these trends continue, Pyongyang will run out of foreign currency with which to purchase Chinese and Russian imports. Chart 8China Is Turning The Screws On Pyongyang... Chart 9...Particularly On Coal Imports Second, Pyongyang is well aware of pressures against the regime. The assassination of Kim Jong-nam - the older half-brother of Kim Jong-un - in February of this year sent a message to the world, but especially to China, which kept Kim Jong-nam around as an alternative to the current Kim. That Pyongyang went to the extreme lengths of poisoning Kim Jong-nam with VX nerve agent in a foreign airport suggests that Kim Jong-un is still worried about threats to his rule.13 If Beijing's economic sanctions continue to tighten in 2018, the military could conceivably see the Supreme Leader's aggressive foreign policy as a risk to regime survival. Third, Pyongyang could miscalculate and create a crisis from which it cannot deescalate. A provocation that disrupts international infrastructure and commerce or kills civilians from the U.S. or Japan could trigger a downward spiral. For instance, an attack against international shipping in the Yellow Sea or Sea of Japan by North Korean submarines would be an unprecedented act that the U.S. and Japan would likely retaliate against.14 We could see the U.S. following the script from Operation Praying Mantis in the Persian Gulf in 1988 - the largest surface engagement by the U.S. Navy since the Second World War. In that incident, the U.S. sunk half of Iran's navy in retaliation for the mining of the guided missile frigate USS Samuel B. Roberts. In the case of North Korea, this would primarily mean taking out its approximately 20 Romeo-class submarines and an unknown number of domestically-produced - Yugoslav-designed - newly built submarines. Such a conflict is not our baseline case, but we assign much higher probability to it than an all-out war on the Korean Peninsula. How would Pyongyang react to the sinking of its submarines? Our best case is that the regime would do nothing. The leadership in Pyongyang is massively constrained by its quantifiable military inferiority. True, North Korea has around 6 million military personnel - about 25% of the total population is under arms - but unfortunately for Pyongyang, this large army is arrayed against one of the most sophisticated defenses ever constructed by man: the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ). To support its ground forces, North Korea would have at its disposal only about 20-30 Mig-29s. Countering two dozen jets would be South Korea's combined 177 F-15s and F-16s, plus American forces that would vary in size depending on how many aircraft carriers were deployed in the vicinity. Given that a single American aircraft carrier holds up to 48 fighter jets, North Koreans would quickly find themselves fighting a losing battle. Which is why they may never initiate one. If Kim Jong-un insists on retaliation, the military could remove and replace him with, for instance, his 30-year old sister, who has recently risen in party ranks, or his 36-year old brother Kim Jong-chul, who is apparently not entirely uninvolved in the regime despite living an unassuming life in Pyongyang. What would a regime change mean for the markets? It depends on whether it is successful or not. An unsuccessful coup could lead to a massive purge and likely a total break in Pyongyang's relations with the outside world, including China. This would seriously destabilize North Korea's decision-making. The global community would have to begin contemplating a total war on the Korean peninsula. Alternatively, a successful coup could lead to temporary volatility, yet long-term stability. The military regime in the North may even be open to reunification over the long term, depending on how U.S.-China relations evolve. Bottom Line: China does not want to cripple North Korea or throw a coup. But it is cooperating with sanctions and could therefore trigger one by mistake. At least two regimes have collapsed in the past when facing the pincer movement of economic sanctions and American military pressure - South Africa's apartheid regime in 1991 and Slobodan Miloševic's Yugoslavia in 1999. Kim Jong-un could face a similar fate, particularly if China applies excessive economic pressure. Black Swan 3: Prime Minister Jeremy Corbyn There is no election scheduled in the U.K. for 2018, but if one were to be held the ruling Tories would be in trouble (Chart 10). In fact, the combined anti-Brexit forces are currently in a solid lead over the pro-Brexit parties, Conservatives and the U.K. Independence Party (UKIP) (Chart 11). Chart 10Labour Is In The Lead... Chart 11...As Are Anti-Brexit Forces Writ-Large What could trigger such an election? Ultimately, the final exit deal may prompt a new election. More immediately, the ongoing negotiations over the status of the Irish border would be a prime candidate. As our colleague Dhaval Joshi, head of BCA's European Investment Strategy noted recently, Prime Minister Theresa May's government is propped up by the Northern Irish Unionists to whom May has promised that there will be no hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. This will likely create a crisis as the EU negotiations may inadvertently threaten the Good Friday peace agreement. The Northern Ireland Unionists will not tolerate the border moving to the Irish Sea. This would effectively take Northern Ireland into the EU customs union and single market, and out of the U.K.'s domestic trading zone. It would also embolden Scotland's push for single market access. In essence, the Tory government may collapse because of differences within the U.K.'s "three kingdoms" before it even has the chance to collapse over differences with the EU.15 The market may cheer a Labour-Scottish National Party (SNP) coalition government, a potential winner of an early election, as it would mean that a new referendum on the U.K. leaving the EU could be held. The latest polls suggest that "Bremorse" (remorse for Brexit) has set in, as a clear majority in the U.K. thinks that Brexit was a bad idea (Chart 12). However, we suspect that it would take Prime Minister Jeremy Corbyn several months, if not over a year, before he called such a referendum. First, Corbyn is on record supporting a soft Brexit, not a new referendum, and he has only just begun to adjust this position. Second, a soft Brexit is far more difficult to achieve than the hard Brexit of Prime Minister Theresa May since it requires the U.K. to subvert its sovereignty in significant ways (i.e., accepting EU regulation) in order to access the EU Common Market. Third, the most politically palatable way to re-do the referendum is to put a U.K.-EU deal up to the people to decide, which means that Corbyn first has to spend a long time negotiating that deal. Chart 12Bremorse Sets In The market may be disappointed to find out that PM Corbyn is not willing or able to put the question of the U.K.'s EU exit up to a vote right away. Instead, the market would have to deal with Corbyn's economic policies, which are markedly left-wing. Corbyn harkens back to the 110 Propositions pour la France of French President François Mitterrand, if not exactly to the ghastly 1970s of the U.K.'s own history. A brief sample platter of Labour's proposals under Corbyn includes: Increasing the U.K. corporate tax rate to 26% from 20%; Increasing the minimum wage; Forcing companies not to out-source operations; Nationalizing public infrastructure companies. How should investors play a Corbyn victory? We think that the U.K. pound would likely rally on a higher probability of reversing Brexit. However, this "no Brexit" rally would quickly dissipate as PM Corbyn reiterated his promise to fulfill the democratic desire of the population to exit the EU. While Corbyn's negotiating team set to work on getting a better Brexit deal out of Brussels, the market would quickly turn its attention to the reality that Corbyn is not kidding about socialism.16 The result would be a selloff in the pound. Bottom Line: BCA's Foreign Exchange Strategy has pointed out that the pound remains well below its fair value (Chart 13). However, as BCA's chief FX strategist Mathieu Savary points out, the valuation technicals may be misleading as the currency has entered a new economic, trade, and political paradigm. A Corbyn premiership is not clearly positive for Brexit, while opening up a completely different question: is the U.K. also exiting the free-market, laissez-faire paradigm that it has helped lead since May 1979? Black Swan 4: Italy Is A Black Swan Hiding In Plain Sight The spread between Italian and German 10-year government bonds has narrowed 72 basis points since April, suggesting that investors have grown comfortable with the risks associated with the Italian election due by May (Chart 14). There are three reasons why we agree with the market: Chart 13Pound Valuation Reflects Post-Brexit Paradigm Chart 14Investors Not Worried About Italy New electoral rules passed in October make it highly likely that a center-right alliance will take shape between the Forza Italia of former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi and the mildly Eurosketpic Lega Nord. These two could form a government alone, or in a grand coalition with the center-left Democratic Party (PD) (Chart 15). Both Lega Nord and the anti-establishment Five Star Movement (M5S) have moved to the center on the questions of European integration and membership in the currency union; The European migration crisis is over and its supposedly constant impact on Italy is waning (Chart 16). Meanwhile, Italy's economy is on the mend, with its banking sector finally following the Spanish trajectory with a drop in non-performing loans (Chart 17). Chart 15Italy Set For A Hung Parliament Chart 16Migration Crisis Is Over (Yes, Even In Italy) Chart 17Italian Recovery Is Just Starting That said, we continue to warn clients that the underlying support for the common currency is lagging in Italy. The support level is just above 55%, despite a strong rally in the rest of the Euro Area (Chart 18). Similarly, over 40% of Italians appear confident in the country's future outside of the EU (Chart 19). Chart 18Italians Stand Out For Distrust Of Euro Chart 19Italians Not Enthusiastic About EU Our baseline case is that Italian elections will produce a weak and ineffective government, though crucially not a Euroskeptic one. How could we be wrong? Easy: one of the three reasons why we agree with the market could shift. For example, M5S could alter its pledge to remain in the Euro Area and surprisingly win on a Euroskeptic platform. Why would the party do something like that? Because it makes sense! Polls are already showing that M5S's recent moderation on the euro is not paying political dividends, with its support sharply sliding since the summer. With power quickly slipping out of reach for the party, why wouldn't they put a down-payment on the next election by trusting the underlying trend in opinion polling and investing in a Euroskeptic platform that might pay political dividends in the future? If we think that this strategy makes sense based on the data, then the M5S leadership might as well. Chart 20Can MIB Keep Outperforming? Another scenario is a major terror attack perpetrated by recent migrants from North Africa. Italy has been spared from radical Islamic terror. As such, the country may not be as desensitized to it as other European nations. A strong showing by Lega Nord and the far-right Fratelli d'Italia could force Forza Italia to move to the right as well. On our travels, we have noticed that few investors want to talk about Italy. There is wide acknowledgement of the structural trends pointing to a rise of Euroskepticism in the country, but also an appearance of consensus that this is a problem for a later date. We agree with this consensus, but our conviction is low. Bottom Line: Italian election risk is completely unappreciated by the markets. The country's equity market is one of the best performing this year (Chart 20), while government bonds are pricing in no political risk as the election approaches. We believe that shorting both would present a good hedging opportunity. Black Swan 5: Bloodbath In Latin America Our last black swan risk is not really a black swan to us but a forecast we believe will happen. As we outlined last month, we fear that Chinese policy-induced credit contraction will be negative for emerging markets, as BCA's Emerging Markets Strategy data asserts (Chart 21). BCA's Foreign Exchange Strategy has pointed out in its latest missive that its "Carry Canary Indicator" - performance of EM/JPY crosses - is signaling that a sharp deceleration in global growth is coming in Q1 2018 (Chart 22).17 Latin America (especially Chile, Peru, and Brazil) is the region most exposed to the combination of a slowing China and a China-induced drop in commodity prices. Chart 21When China Sneezes, EM Gets The Flu Chart 22Ominous Signal From EM/JPY From a political perspective, this is most negative for Brazil and Mexico. Both countries hold elections in 2018, with the Mexican election further complicated by the ongoing NAFTA renegotiations. We believe that the future of NAFTA hangs in the balance, with a high probability that the Trump administration will decide to abrogate the deal.18 Currently, anti-market political forces are in the lead in both countries. In Brazil, no pro-market candidate is leading in the polls (Chart 23). In fact, anti-market options have a 48% lead on the centrists. Granted, there are ten months until the election, but we are skeptical that the Brazilian population will change its mind and support reformers. If the "median voter" in Brazil supported reforms, the current Temer administration would have passed them already. In Mexico, anti-establishment candidate Andrés Manuel López Obrador (also known as AMLO) is leading in the polls (Chart 24), as is his new party Morena (Chart 25). If Morena wins the most seats in the Mexican Congress, it will be more difficult for the opposition parties to combine to counter it.19 Chart 23There Is No Pro-Market Option In Brazil Chart 24AMLO Is In The Lead ... Chart 25...As Is Morena In 2017, we argued that politics were not a tailwind for EM asset performance. Instead, investors chased yield in the favorable economic context of Chinese economic stimulus, low developed market yields, and a weak U.S. dollar. In reality, politics was just as dire in much of EM as it was in prior years of asset underperformance, but the surge of global liquidity in 2018 masked the problems. We do not think the EM rally is sustainable in 2018. As the global economic and market context shifts, investors will start paying attention. Suddenly, political problems will enter into focus. Here we argue that Brazil and Mexico are likely to be the main targets of portfolio outflows, but a strong case could be made for South Africa and Turkey as well.20 Bottom Line: Political risk in Latin America will return. Marko Papic, Senior Vice President Chief Geopolitical Strategist marko@bcaresearch.com 1 Please see BCA Geopolitical Strategy, "U.S. Election: Outcomes & Investment Implications," dated November 9, 2016, and "Constraints & Preferences Of The Trump Presidency," dated November 30, 2016, available at gps.bcaresearch.com. 2 Please see BCA Geopolitical Strategy, "Reconciliation And The Markets - Warning: This Report May Put You To Sleep," dated May 31, 2017, "How Long Can The 'Trump Put' Last?" dated June 14, 2017, and "Is King Dollar Back?" dated October 4, 2017, available at gps.bcaresearch.com. 3 Please see BCA Geopolitical Strategy, "Geopolitics - From Overstated To Understated Risks," dated November 22, 2017, available at gps.bcaresearch.com. 4 President Clinton launched the largest NATO military operation against Yugoslavia amidst impeachment proceedings against him while President George H. W. Bush ordered U.S. troops to Somalia a month after losing the 1992 election. Ironically, President George H. W. Bush intervened in Somalia in order to lock in the supposedly isolationist Bill Clinton, who had defeated him three weeks earlier, into an internationalist foreign policy. President George W. Bush ordered the "surge" of troops into Iraq in 2007 after losing both houses of Congress in 2006; President Obama arranged the Iranian nuclear deal after losing the Senate (and hence Congress) to the Republicans in 2014. 5 Please see BCA Geopolitical Strategy, "Break Glass In Case Of Impeachment," dated May 17, 2017, available at gps.bcaresearch.com. 6 Particularly vulnerable, in our view, will be Cory Gardner (R, Colorado), Joni Ernst (R, Iowa), Susan Collins (R, Maine), and Thom Tillis (R, North Carolina). 7 U.S. Treasury Under Secretary for International Affairs David Malpass recently claimed that high-level talks had "stalled" and re-emphasized the U.S.'s structural complaints: "We are concerned that China's economic liberalization seems to have slowed or reversed, with the role of the state increasing ... State-owned enterprises have not faced hard budget constraints and China's industrial policy has become more and more problematic for foreign firms. Huge export credits are flowing in non-economic ways that distort markets." The growing presence of Communist Party cells within corporations is another important structural concern that puts the administration at loggerheads with China's leaders. Please see Andrew Mayeda and Saleha Mohsin, "US Rebukes China For Backing Off Market Embrace," Bloomberg, November 30, 2017, available at www.bloomberg.com. 8 Please see BCA Geopolitical Strategy, "Buy In May And Enjoy Your Day!" dated April 26, 2017, available at gps.bcaresearch.com. 9 Please see BCA Geopolitical Strategy, "Can Pyongyang Derail The Bull Market?" dated August 16, 2017, available at gps.bcaresearch.com. 10 Please see BCA Global Investment Strategy, "A Timeline For The Next Five Years: Part II," dated December 1, 2017, available at gis.bcaresearch.com. 11 Please see "North Korea: From Overstated To Understated" in BCA Geopolitical Strategy, "Strategic Outlook 2016: Multipolarity & Markets," dated December 9, 2015, available at gps.bcaresearch.com. A notable coup attempt occurred in 1995-96 in North Hamgyong; something like a coup attempt may have occurred in 2013; and defectors from North Korea have reported various stories of plots and conspiracies against the regime. 12 After all, Peter predicted that Donald Trump would be a serious candidate for the U.S. presidency back in September 2015! 13 Still worried, that is, even after Kim Jong-un's supposed "consolidation of power" in 2013-14 when he executed his influential and China-aligned uncle, Jang Song Thaek, and purged the latter's faction. There were reports of rogue military operations at that time. With low troop morale reported by North Korean defectors, the possibility of insubordination cannot be ruled out. 14 A North Korean submarine sank the South Korean corvette Cheonan in 2010, and North Korean artillery shelled two islands killing South Korean civilians later that year, but these attacks were still within the norm of North Korean provocations. The two countries are still technically at war and have contested maritime as well as land borders. 15 Please see BCA Geopolitical Strategy, "Strategic Outlook 2017: We Are All Geopolitical Strategists Now," dated December 14, 2016, available at gps.bcaresearch.com. 16 To help investors get ready for a Corbyn premiership, we thought his appearance on President Nicolás Maduro's weekly radio show would be a good place to start: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7eL8_wtS-0I 17 Please see BCA Foreign Exchange Strategy, "Canaries In The Coal Mine Alert: EM/JPY Carry Trades," dated December 1, 2017, available at fes.bcaresearch.com. 18 Please see BCA Geopolitical Strategy and Global Investment Strategy, "NAFTA - Populism Vs. Pluto-Populism," dated November 10, 2017, available at gps.bcaresearch.com. 19 Please see BCA Geopolitical Strategy and Emerging Markets Strategy "Update On Emerging Markets: Malaysia, Mexico, And The United States Of America," dated August 9, 2017, available at gps.bcaresearch.com. 20 Please see BCA Geopolitical Strategy, "South Africa: Crisis Of Expectations," dated June 28, 2017, and "Turkey: Military Adventurism And Capital Controls," dated December 7, 2016, available at gps.bcaresearch.com. Geopolitical Calendar

Special Report

Highlights Geopolitical risks were overstated in 2017, but have now become understated; If Donald Trump becomes an early "lame duck" president, he will seek relevance abroad; This could mean a protectionist White House, or increased geopolitical tensions with Iran and North Korea; North Korean internal stability could come into question as economic sanctions begin to bite; Political risks in the U.K. and Italy could rise with markets overly complacent on both; Emerging markets, particularly Brazil and Mexico, will see renewed political risk. Feature Buoyant global growth, political stability in Europe, and steady policymakers' hands in China have fueled risk assets in 2017. As the year draws to a close, investors also have tax cuts in the U.S. to celebrate. Our high conviction view that tax cuts would happen - and that they would be fiscally profligate - is near the finish line.1 In making this call, we ignored the failure to repeal Obamacare, the "wisdom" of old "D.C. hands," and direct intelligence from a source inside the White House circle who swore tax reform would be revenue neutral. Throughout the year, BCA's Geopolitical Strategy remained confident that the GOP would ignore its fiscal conservative credentials and focus on the midterm elections.2 That election is increasingly looking like a bloodbath-in-the-making for the Republican Party (Chart 1). What of the latest opinion polls showing that the tax cuts are unpopular with half of all Americans? The polls also show that a solid one-third of all Americans remain in support of the Republican plan (Chart 2). We suspect - as do Republican strategists - that those are the Republicans who vote in midterm elections. Given the atrociously low turnout in midterm elections - just 36.4% of Americans voted in 2014 - Republicans need their base to turn out in November. The tax cuts are not about the wider American public but the Republican base. Chart 1Midterm Election: A Bloodbath? Chart 2Republican Base Supports Tax Cuts As we close the book on 2017, we look with trepidation towards 2018. Our main theme for next year is that the combination of economic stimulus from the tax cuts in the U.S. and structural reforms in China will create a U.S.-dollar-bullish policy mix that will combine into a headwind for global risk assets, particularly emerging market equities.3 However, in this report, we focus on some of the more exotic risks that investors may have to deal with. In particular we focus on five potential "black swans" - low probability, high market-impact events - that are neither on the market's radar nor the media's. To qualify for our list, the events must be: Unlikely: There must be less than a 20% probability that the event will occur in the next 12 months. Out of sight: The scenario we present should not be receiving media coverage, at least not as a serious market risk. Geopolitical: We must be able to identify the risk scenario through the lens of our geopolitical methodology. Genuinely unpredictable events - such as meteor strikes, pandemics, crippling cyber-attacks, solar flares, alien invasions, and failures in the computer program running the simulation that we call the universe - do not make the cut. Black Swan 1: Lame Duck Trump "Lame duck" presidents - leaders whose popularity late in their term has sunk so low that they can no longer affect policy - are said to be particularly adventurous in the foreign arena. While this adage has a spotty empirical record, there are several notable examples in recent memory.4 American presidents have few constitutional constraints when it comes to foreign policy. Therefore, when domestic constraints rise, U.S. presidents seek relevance abroad. Chart 3The Day After The Midterms, Trump's Overall Popularity Will Matter More Than That Among Republicans President Trump may become the earliest, and lamest, lame duck president in recent U.S. history. While his Republican support remains healthy, his overall popularity is well below the average presidential approval rating at this point in the political cycle (Chart 3). Based on these poll numbers, his party is likely to underperform in the upcoming midterm election (Chart 4). A Democrat-led House of Representatives would have the votes to begin impeachment, which we would then consider likely in 2019. As we have argued in our "impeachment handbook," the market impact of such a crisis would ultimately depend on market fundamentals and the global context, not political intrigue.5 Chart 4Trump Is Becoming A Liability For The GOP President Trump's political capital ahead of the midterm elections is based on his ability to influence Republican legislators. Despite low overall poll numbers, President Trump can use the threat of endorsing primary challengers against conservative peers in Congress to move his agenda in the legislature. He has effectively done this with tax cuts. However, the day after the midterm elections, President Trump's own numbers will matter for the GOP. Given that President Trump will be on the ballot in the 2020 general election, his low approval numbers with non-Republican voters will hang like an albatross around the party's neck. This is a serious issue, particularly given that 22 of the 33 Senators up for reelection in 2020 will be Republican.6 Robust economic growth and a roaring stock market have not boosted Trump's popularity so far. At the same time, a strong economy ready to translate into higher wages is about to be "pump-primed" by stimulative tax cuts (Chart 5). We would expect the result to be a stronger dollar, which should keep the U.S. trade deficit widening well into Trump's second year in office. At some point, this will become a sore political point, given Trump's protectionist rhetoric and his administration's focus on the trade balance as a key measure of U.S. power. Chart 5Wage Pressures Are Building What kind of adventures would we expect to see President Trump embark on in 2018? There are three prime candidates: China-U.S. trade war: The Trump administration started off with threats against China and then proceeded to negotiations. However, neither the North Korean situation nor the trade deficit has seen substantial improvement, and a lame duck Trump administration would be more likely to resort to serious punitive actions. Even improvements on the Korean peninsula would not necessarily prevent Washington from getting tougher on Beijing over trade, as the Trump administration will be driven by domestic politics. Investors should carefully watch whether the World Trade Organization deems China a "market economy," which could trigger a U.S. backlash, and whether the various investigations by U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross result in anti-dumping and countervailing duties being imposed more frequently on specific Chinese exports. Thus far, the empirical evidence suggests that the Trump administration has picked up the pace of protectionist rulings (Chart 6). Notably, the Trump administration claims that the Comprehensive Economic Dialogue has "stalled," and it is reviving deeper, structural demands on Chinese policymakers.7 Iran Jingoism: Rumors that Secretary of State Rex Tillerson may be replaced by CIA Director Mike Pompeo - who would be replaced at the CIA by Senator Tom Cotton - can only mean one thing: the White House has Iran in its sights. Both Pompeo and Cotton are hawks on Iran. The administration may be preparing to shift its focus from North Korea, where American allies in the region are urging caution, to the Middle East, where American allies in the region are urging aggression. Investors should watch whether Tillerson is removed and especially how Congress reacts to President Trump's decision on October 15 to decertify the Iran nuclear agreement (also called the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action or JCPOA). The Republican-controlled Congress has until December 15 to reimpose sanctions on Iran that were suspended as part of the deal, with merely a simple majority needed in both chambers. However, President Trump will also have an opportunity, as early as January, to end waivers on a slew of sanctions that were not covered under the JCPOA. North Korea: It would be natural to slot North Korea as first on our list of potential foreign policy adventures for President Trump. However, it does not really fit our qualification of a black swan. North Korea is not "out of sight." Additionally, President Trump has already broken with the tradition of previous administrations by upping the pressure on Pyongyang. In fact, a North Korean black swan would be if President Trump succeeded in breaking the regime in Pyongyang. To that scenario we turn next. Chart 6Trump: Game Changer In U.S. Trade Policy? Bottom Line: Geopolitics has not affected the markets in 2017, with risk assets reaching record highs and the VIX reaching record lows (Chart 7). This was our view throughout the year and we called for investors to "buy in May and have a nice day" as a result of our analysis.8 We do not see this as likely in 2018. The Trump administration has no credible legislative agenda after tax cuts. We expect Congress to stall as we enter the summer primary season and for the GOP to lose the House to the Democrats. President Trump is an astute political analyst and will sense these developments before they happen. There is a good chance that he will attempt to sway the election and pre-empt his lame duck status with an aggressive foreign policy. Chart 72017 Goldilocks: S&P 500 Up, VIX Down Investment implications are twofold. First, we continue to recommend an equally weighted basket of Swiss 10-year bonds and gold as a portfolio hedge.9 Second, risk premium for oil prices should rise in 2018. Not only is the supply-demand balance favorable for oil prices, but geopolitical risks are likely to rise as well. Black Swan 2: A Coup In Pyongyang Our colleague Peter Berezin, BCA's Chief Global Strategist, has suggested that a coup d'état against Supreme Leader Kim Jong-un could be a black swan trigger that spooks the markets.10 While Peter used the scenario as a tongue-in-cheek way to weave Kim into a narrative that tells of a late 2019 recession, we have long raised North Korean domestic politics as the true Korean black swan.11 Here we entertain Peter's idea for three reasons.12 First, China has upped the economic pressure on Pyongyang. Under Kim Jong-un, the North Korean state has attempted some limited economic "opening up," namely to China. But the attempt to finalize the nuclear deterrent has delayed an already precarious process. There has now been a $617 million drop in Chinese imports from the country since the beginning of the year (Chart 8), with coal imports particularly affected (Chart 9). China has also pulled back on tourism. Meanwhile, North Korea's imports of Chinese goods have risen, which suggests that the country's current account balance may be widening. At some point, if these trends continue, Pyongyang will run out of foreign currency with which to purchase Chinese and Russian imports. Chart 8China Is Turning The Screws On Pyongyang... Chart 9...Particularly On Coal Imports Second, Pyongyang is well aware of pressures against the regime. The assassination of Kim Jong-nam - the older half-brother of Kim Jong-un - in February of this year sent a message to the world, but especially to China, which kept Kim Jong-nam around as an alternative to the current Kim. That Pyongyang went to the extreme lengths of poisoning Kim Jong-nam with VX nerve agent in a foreign airport suggests that Kim Jong-un is still worried about threats to his rule.13 If Beijing's economic sanctions continue to tighten in 2018, the military could conceivably see the Supreme Leader's aggressive foreign policy as a risk to regime survival. Third, Pyongyang could miscalculate and create a crisis from which it cannot deescalate. A provocation that disrupts international infrastructure and commerce or kills civilians from the U.S. or Japan could trigger a downward spiral. For instance, an attack against international shipping in the Yellow Sea or Sea of Japan by North Korean submarines would be an unprecedented act that the U.S. and Japan would likely retaliate against.14 We could see the U.S. following the script from Operation Praying Mantis in the Persian Gulf in 1988 - the largest surface engagement by the U.S. Navy since the Second World War. In that incident, the U.S. sunk half of Iran's navy in retaliation for the mining of the guided missile frigate USS Samuel B. Roberts. In the case of North Korea, this would primarily mean taking out its approximately 20 Romeo-class submarines and an unknown number of domestically-produced - Yugoslav-designed - newly built submarines. Such a conflict is not our baseline case, but we assign much higher probability to it than an all-out war on the Korean Peninsula. How would Pyongyang react to the sinking of its submarines? Our best case is that the regime would do nothing. The leadership in Pyongyang is massively constrained by its quantifiable military inferiority. True, North Korea has around 6 million military personnel - about 25% of the total population is under arms - but unfortunately for Pyongyang, this large army is arrayed against one of the most sophisticated defenses ever constructed by man: the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ). To support its ground forces, North Korea would have at its disposal only about 20-30 Mig-29s. Countering two dozen jets would be South Korea's combined 177 F-15s and F-16s, plus American forces that would vary in size depending on how many aircraft carriers were deployed in the vicinity. Given that a single American aircraft carrier holds up to 48 fighter jets, North Koreans would quickly find themselves fighting a losing battle. Which is why they may never initiate one. If Kim Jong-un insists on retaliation, the military could remove and replace him with, for instance, his 30-year old sister, who has recently risen in party ranks, or his 36-year old brother Kim Jong-chul, who is apparently not entirely uninvolved in the regime despite living an unassuming life in Pyongyang. What would a regime change mean for the markets? It depends on whether it is successful or not. An unsuccessful coup could lead to a massive purge and likely a total break in Pyongyang's relations with the outside world, including China. This would seriously destabilize North Korea's decision-making. The global community would have to begin contemplating a total war on the Korean peninsula. Alternatively, a successful coup could lead to temporary volatility, yet long-term stability. The military regime in the North may even be open to reunification over the long term, depending on how U.S.-China relations evolve. Bottom Line: China does not want to cripple North Korea or throw a coup. But it is cooperating with sanctions and could therefore trigger one by mistake. At least two regimes have collapsed in the past when facing the pincer movement of economic sanctions and American military pressure - South Africa's apartheid regime in 1991 and Slobodan Miloševic's Yugoslavia in 1999. Kim Jong-un could face a similar fate, particularly if China applies excessive economic pressure. Black Swan 3: Prime Minister Jeremy Corbyn There is no election scheduled in the U.K. for 2018, but if one were to be held the ruling Tories would be in trouble (Chart 10). In fact, the combined anti-Brexit forces are currently in a solid lead over the pro-Brexit parties, Conservatives and the U.K. Independence Party (UKIP) (Chart 11). Chart 10Labour Is In The Lead... Chart 11...As Are Anti-Brexit Forces Writ-Large What could trigger such an election? Ultimately, the final exit deal may prompt a new election. More immediately, the ongoing negotiations over the status of the Irish border would be a prime candidate. As our colleague Dhaval Joshi, head of BCA's European Investment Strategy noted recently, Prime Minister Theresa May's government is propped up by the Northern Irish Unionists to whom May has promised that there will be no hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. This will likely create a crisis as the EU negotiations may inadvertently threaten the Good Friday peace agreement. The Northern Ireland Unionists will not tolerate the border moving to the Irish Sea. This would effectively take Northern Ireland into the EU customs union and single market, and out of the U.K.'s domestic trading zone. It would also embolden Scotland's push for single market access. In essence, the Tory government may collapse because of differences within the U.K.'s "three kingdoms" before it even has the chance to collapse over differences with the EU.15 The market may cheer a Labour-Scottish National Party (SNP) coalition government, a potential winner of an early election, as it would mean that a new referendum on the U.K. leaving the EU could be held. The latest polls suggest that "Bremorse" (remorse for Brexit) has set in, as a clear majority in the U.K. thinks that Brexit was a bad idea (Chart 12). However, we suspect that it would take Prime Minister Jeremy Corbyn several months, if not over a year, before he called such a referendum. First, Corbyn is on record supporting a soft Brexit, not a new referendum, and he has only just begun to adjust this position. Second, a soft Brexit is far more difficult to achieve than the hard Brexit of Prime Minister Theresa May since it requires the U.K. to subvert its sovereignty in significant ways (i.e., accepting EU regulation) in order to access the EU Common Market. Third, the most politically palatable way to re-do the referendum is to put a U.K.-EU deal up to the people to decide, which means that Corbyn first has to spend a long time negotiating that deal. Chart 12Bremorse Sets In The market may be disappointed to find out that PM Corbyn is not willing or able to put the question of the U.K.'s EU exit up to a vote right away. Instead, the market would have to deal with Corbyn's economic policies, which are markedly left-wing. Corbyn harkens back to the 110 Propositions pour la France of French President François Mitterrand, if not exactly to the ghastly 1970s of the U.K.'s own history. A brief sample platter of Labour's proposals under Corbyn includes: Increasing the U.K. corporate tax rate to 26% from 20%; Increasing the minimum wage; Forcing companies not to out-source operations; Nationalizing public infrastructure companies. How should investors play a Corbyn victory? We think that the U.K. pound would likely rally on a higher probability of reversing Brexit. However, this "no Brexit" rally would quickly dissipate as PM Corbyn reiterated his promise to fulfill the democratic desire of the population to exit the EU. While Corbyn's negotiating team set to work on getting a better Brexit deal out of Brussels, the market would quickly turn its attention to the reality that Corbyn is not kidding about socialism.16 The result would be a selloff in the pound. Bottom Line: BCA's Foreign Exchange Strategy has pointed out that the pound remains well below its fair value (Chart 13). However, as BCA's chief FX strategist Mathieu Savary points out, the valuation technicals may be misleading as the currency has entered a new economic, trade, and political paradigm. A Corbyn premiership is not clearly positive for Brexit, while opening up a completely different question: is the U.K. also exiting the free-market, laissez-faire paradigm that it has helped lead since May 1979? Black Swan 4: Italy Is A Black Swan Hiding In Plain Sight The spread between Italian and German 10-year government bonds has narrowed 72 basis points since April, suggesting that investors have grown comfortable with the risks associated with the Italian election due by May (Chart 14). There are three reasons why we agree with the market: Chart 13Pound Valuation Reflects Post-Brexit Paradigm Chart 14Investors Not Worried About Italy New electoral rules passed in October make it highly likely that a center-right alliance will take shape between the Forza Italia of former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi and the mildly Eurosketpic Lega Nord. These two could form a government alone, or in a grand coalition with the center-left Democratic Party (PD) (Chart 15). Both Lega Nord and the anti-establishment Five Star Movement (M5S) have moved to the center on the questions of European integration and membership in the currency union; The European migration crisis is over and its supposedly constant impact on Italy is waning (Chart 16). Meanwhile, Italy's economy is on the mend, with its banking sector finally following the Spanish trajectory with a drop in non-performing loans (Chart 17). Chart 15Italy Set For A Hung Parliament Chart 16Migration Crisis Is Over (Yes, Even In Italy) Chart 17Italian Recovery Is Just Starting That said, we continue to warn clients that the underlying support for the common currency is lagging in Italy. The support level is just above 55%, despite a strong rally in the rest of the Euro Area (Chart 18). Similarly, over 40% of Italians appear confident in the country's future outside of the EU (Chart 19). Chart 18Italians Stand Out For Distrust Of Euro Chart 19Italians Not Enthusiastic About EU Our baseline case is that Italian elections will produce a weak and ineffective government, though crucially not a Euroskeptic one. How could we be wrong? Easy: one of the three reasons why we agree with the market could shift. For example, M5S could alter its pledge to remain in the Euro Area and surprisingly win on a Euroskeptic platform. Why would the party do something like that? Because it makes sense! Polls are already showing that M5S's recent moderation on the euro is not paying political dividends, with its support sharply sliding since the summer. With power quickly slipping out of reach for the party, why wouldn't they put a down-payment on the next election by trusting the underlying trend in opinion polling and investing in a Euroskeptic platform that might pay political dividends in the future? If we think that this strategy makes sense based on the data, then the M5S leadership might as well. Chart 20Can MIB Keep Outperforming? Another scenario is a major terror attack perpetrated by recent migrants from North Africa. Italy has been spared from radical Islamic terror. As such, the country may not be as desensitized to it as other European nations. A strong showing by Lega Nord and the far-right Fratelli d'Italia could force Forza Italia to move to the right as well. On our travels, we have noticed that few investors want to talk about Italy. There is wide acknowledgement of the structural trends pointing to a rise of Euroskepticism in the country, but also an appearance of consensus that this is a problem for a later date. We agree with this consensus, but our conviction is low. Bottom Line: Italian election risk is completely unappreciated by the markets. The country's equity market is one of the best performing this year (Chart 20), while government bonds are pricing in no political risk as the election approaches. We believe that shorting both would present a good hedging opportunity. Black Swan 5: Bloodbath In Latin America Our last black swan risk is not really a black swan to us but a forecast we believe will happen. As we outlined last month, we fear that Chinese policy-induced credit contraction will be negative for emerging markets, as BCA's Emerging Markets Strategy data asserts (Chart 21). BCA's Foreign Exchange Strategy has pointed out in its latest missive that its "Carry Canary Indicator" - performance of EM/JPY crosses - is signaling that a sharp deceleration in global growth is coming in Q1 2018 (Chart 22).17 Latin America (especially Chile, Peru, and Brazil) is the region most exposed to the combination of a slowing China and a China-induced drop in commodity prices. Chart 21When China Sneezes, EM Gets The Flu Chart 22Ominous Signal From EM/JPY From a political perspective, this is most negative for Brazil and Mexico. Both countries hold elections in 2018, with the Mexican election further complicated by the ongoing NAFTA renegotiations. We believe that the future of NAFTA hangs in the balance, with a high probability that the Trump administration will decide to abrogate the deal.18 Currently, anti-market political forces are in the lead in both countries. In Brazil, no pro-market candidate is leading in the polls (Chart 23). In fact, anti-market options have a 48% lead on the centrists. Granted, there are ten months until the election, but we are skeptical that the Brazilian population will change its mind and support reformers. If the "median voter" in Brazil supported reforms, the current Temer administration would have passed them already. In Mexico, anti-establishment candidate Andrés Manuel López Obrador (also known as AMLO) is leading in the polls (Chart 24), as is his new party Morena (Chart 25). If Morena wins the most seats in the Mexican Congress, it will be more difficult for the opposition parties to combine to counter it.19 Chart 23There Is No Pro-Market Option In Brazil Chart 24AMLO Is In The Lead ... Chart 25...As Is Morena In 2017, we argued that politics were not a tailwind for EM asset performance. Instead, investors chased yield in the favorable economic context of Chinese economic stimulus, low developed market yields, and a weak U.S. dollar. In reality, politics was just as dire in much of EM as it was in prior years of asset underperformance, but the surge of global liquidity in 2018 masked the problems. We do not think the EM rally is sustainable in 2018. As the global economic and market context shifts, investors will start paying attention. Suddenly, political problems will enter into focus. Here we argue that Brazil and Mexico are likely to be the main targets of portfolio outflows, but a strong case could be made for South Africa and Turkey as well.20 Bottom Line: Political risk in Latin America will return. Marko Papic, Senior Vice President Chief Geopolitical Strategist marko@bcaresearch.com 1 Please see BCA Geopolitical Strategy, "U.S. Election: Outcomes & Investment Implications," dated November 9, 2016, and "Constraints & Preferences Of The Trump Presidency," dated November 30, 2016, available at gps.bcaresearch.com. 2 Please see BCA Geopolitical Strategy, "Reconciliation And The Markets - Warning: This Report May Put You To Sleep," dated May 31, 2017, "How Long Can The 'Trump Put' Last?" dated June 14, 2017, and "Is King Dollar Back?" dated October 4, 2017, available at gps.bcaresearch.com. 3 Please see BCA Geopolitical Strategy, "Geopolitics - From Overstated To Understated Risks," dated November 22, 2017, available at gps.bcaresearch.com. 4 President Clinton launched the largest NATO military operation against Yugoslavia amidst impeachment proceedings against him while President George H. W. Bush ordered U.S. troops to Somalia a month after losing the 1992 election. Ironically, President George H. W. Bush intervened in Somalia in order to lock in the supposedly isolationist Bill Clinton, who had defeated him three weeks earlier, into an internationalist foreign policy. President George W. Bush ordered the "surge" of troops into Iraq in 2007 after losing both houses of Congress in 2006; President Obama arranged the Iranian nuclear deal after losing the Senate (and hence Congress) to the Republicans in 2014. 5 Please see BCA Geopolitical Strategy, "Break Glass In Case Of Impeachment," dated May 17, 2017, available at gps.bcaresearch.com. 6 Particularly vulnerable, in our view, will be Cory Gardner (R, Colorado), Joni Ernst (R, Iowa), Susan Collins (R, Maine), and Thom Tillis (R, North Carolina). 7 U.S. Treasury Under Secretary for International Affairs David Malpass recently claimed that high-level talks had "stalled" and re-emphasized the U.S.'s structural complaints: "We are concerned that China's economic liberalization seems to have slowed or reversed, with the role of the state increasing ... State-owned enterprises have not faced hard budget constraints and China's industrial policy has become more and more problematic for foreign firms. Huge export credits are flowing in non-economic ways that distort markets." The growing presence of Communist Party cells within corporations is another important structural concern that puts the administration at loggerheads with China's leaders. Please see Andrew Mayeda and Saleha Mohsin, "US Rebukes China For Backing Off Market Embrace," Bloomberg, November 30, 2017, available at www.bloomberg.com. 8 Please see BCA Geopolitical Strategy, "Buy In May And Enjoy Your Day!" dated April 26, 2017, available at gps.bcaresearch.com. 9 Please see BCA Geopolitical Strategy, "Can Pyongyang Derail The Bull Market?" dated August 16, 2017, available at gps.bcaresearch.com. 10 Please see BCA Global Investment Strategy, "A Timeline For The Next Five Years: Part II," dated December 1, 2017, available at gis.bcaresearch.com. 11 Please see "North Korea: From Overstated To Understated" in BCA Geopolitical Strategy, "Strategic Outlook 2016: Multipolarity & Markets," dated December 9, 2015, available at gps.bcaresearch.com. A notable coup attempt occurred in 1995-96 in North Hamgyong; something like a coup attempt may have occurred in 2013; and defectors from North Korea have reported various stories of plots and conspiracies against the regime. 12 After all, Peter predicted that Donald Trump would be a serious candidate for the U.S. presidency back in September 2015! 13 Still worried, that is, even after Kim Jong-un's supposed "consolidation of power" in 2013-14 when he executed his influential and China-aligned uncle, Jang Song Thaek, and purged the latter's faction. There were reports of rogue military operations at that time. With low troop morale reported by North Korean defectors, the possibility of insubordination cannot be ruled out. 14 A North Korean submarine sank the South Korean corvette Cheonan in 2010, and North Korean artillery shelled two islands killing South Korean civilians later that year, but these attacks were still within the norm of North Korean provocations. The two countries are still technically at war and have contested maritime as well as land borders. 15 Please see BCA Geopolitical Strategy, "Strategic Outlook 2017: We Are All Geopolitical Strategists Now," dated December 14, 2016, available at gps.bcaresearch.com. 16 To help investors get ready for a Corbyn premiership, we thought his appearance on President Nicolás Maduro's weekly radio show would be a good place to start: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7eL8_wtS-0I 17 Please see BCA Foreign Exchange Strategy, "Canaries In The Coal Mine Alert: EM/JPY Carry Trades," dated December 1, 2017, available at fes.bcaresearch.com. 18 Please see BCA Geopolitical Strategy and Global Investment Strategy, "NAFTA - Populism Vs. Pluto-Populism," dated November 10, 2017, available at gps.bcaresearch.com. 19 Please see BCA Geopolitical Strategy and Emerging Markets Strategy "Update On Emerging Markets: Malaysia, Mexico, And The United States Of America," dated August 9, 2017, available at gps.bcaresearch.com. 20 Please see BCA Geopolitical Strategy, "South Africa: Crisis Of Expectations," dated June 28, 2017, and "Turkey: Military Adventurism And Capital Controls," dated December 7, 2016, available at gps.bcaresearch.com. Geopolitical Calendar

Highlights EM/JPY carry trades represent an important "canary in the coal mine" for the global economy that investors need to monitor very closely. They are currently sitting at a key resistance. A breakout above these levels would suggest that global growth will only strengthen, a move down would point to a deceleration in EM and global industrial activity. If EM/JPY carry trades indeed suffer, the key reasons are likely to be the combined onslaught of Chinese policy tightening and DM removal of monetary accommodation. While still not a base case, this breakdown would affect commodity currencies, the AUD in particular, most severely. Scandies would also suffer but the JPY and CHF would be much stronger than we currently anticipate. The ECB is unlikely to match the Fed next year, thus rate differentials will move against EUR/USD. GBP is still stuck in its post-Brexit range. It is likely to weaken anew toward its lower bound once the upper bound is hit during the coming weeks. Feature Chart I-1EM/JPY Carry Trades: ##br##A Canary To Monitor A "canary in the coal mine" for the global economy, EM / JPY crosses, have hit what has been their ceiling for the past ten years, and have begun to roll over (Chart I-1). We believe that carry trades are a key component to global liquidity that historically provide important signals for global industrial activity and EM assets. The weakness in EM/JPY carry trades is in the early innings, but further deterioration would raise dark flags heading into 2018. On the other hand, if EM/JPY carry trades manage to break out of their historical ceiling, the likelihood that the global industrial cycle accelerates further and EM assets strengthen will only grow. Therefore, EM/JPY carry trades need to be both monitored and understood. In this report, we examine one of the two key dynamics affecting these EM carry trade returns: Chinese policy and EM growth dynamics. In another report later this month, we will examine the other key factor: changes in DM monetary policy. Why Do Carry Trades Matter? In a carry trade, funds are borrowed from nations where they are plentiful and cheap - countries like Japan, with high current account surpluses, plenty of foreign assets and low interest rates. Then, these funds are lent to countries experiencing savings shortfalls, but where prospective returns are perceived to be high. These countries tend to have higher growth, current account deficits and higher interest rates. Through this activity, the funding currencies depreciate, and the high-carry currencies appreciate. Chart I-2After Carry Trades Lose Momentum, ##br##Global IP Weakens This transfer of funds supports global economic activity, as it facilitates a more efficient allocation of capital: Carry trades distribute liquidity to the faster-growing corners of the global economy where investment opportunities are plentiful. In the process, this liquidity further supports economic activity, profit growth and asset returns in those attractive markets. A virtuous loop ensues: As asset and currency returns in the high-carry nations remain elevated, further liquidity finds its way into these economies, which supports additional economic and profit growth. All that said, the virtuous loop can quickly mutate into a vicious downward spiral. If returns in the economies that need the borrowed foreign liquidity disappoint, liquidity can quickly find its way out of these nations. This outflow of funds not only hurts the exchange rate of the high-returns economies, it creates a dearth of liquidity in their domestic markets, which hurts domestic asset returns, profits and growth. This invites further outflows, further currency depreciation, and further economic pain. As Chart I-2 illustrates, when EM carry currencies outperform the yen, this tends to support global industrial activity. However, when EM carry currencies weaken relative to the yen, this tends to lead to a sharp deceleration in global growth by an average of three months. What is surprising is the reliability of the signals, especially when picking episodes of decelerating growth. We posit that this relationship works because of three factors. On one hand, EM are where most of the global capex happens (Chart I-3). Capital goods are the key driver of both global industrial production and global trade. Moreover, EM excluding China still needs foreign capital, as they are expected to run a combined current account deficit of US$300 billion in 2018. Thus, industrial activity is greatly influenced by the cost of financing of EM economies. On the other hand, Japan is still the greatest creditor nation in the world, with a net international investment position (NIIP) of US$3 trillion (Chart I-4). Chart I-3EM Are Where Capex Happens Chart I-4Japan Is The World's Biggest Creditor As a result of these dynamics, when EM currencies underperform the yen, it is a symptom that a key source of liquidity is leaving EM economies, and that global industrial activity is set to suffer. Chart I-5EMU PMIs Follow The EM/JPY Carry Trade Unsurprisingly, the performance of EM currencies vis-à-vis the yen also tends to lead dynamics for euro area industrial growth. As Chart I-5 illustrates, the euro area manufacturing PMI is a function of the performance of this supercharged carry trade. The European economy and its manufacturing sector in particular are very exposed to the EM business cycle. This relationship is a confirmation of the validity of the link between EM carry trades and global growth. Bottom Line: EM/JPY carry trades provide a reliable leading signal on global industrial activity. It is because carry trades are a key mechanism of redistributing global liquidity - taking savings from countries where they are oversupplied, and bringing them to countries where they are needed. EM countries are where the marginal capex in the global economy takes place today. Hence, a deterioration in carry trades' returns signals a deterioration of liquidity conditions in the economies that matter most for the global industrial cycle. It is noteworthy that EM/JPY carry trades have recently begun to lose steam. What Lies behind the Weakness in EM/JPY carry Trades? Chinese Policy! What could explains the recent slowdown in EM carry trades? The yen does not seem to be the culprit, as USD/JPY continues to follow the path charted by U.S 10-year yields this year. Instead, we posit that the source of the weakness is Chinese dynamics, the other key driver of EM returns beyond global liquidity conditions. Chinese policymakers have been curtailing their support to the domestic economy this year. Fiscal spending had decelerated massively, and Chinese monetary conditions have been on a tightening path since the end of 2016 (Chart I-6). Moreover, the administrative and regulatory tightening of the shadow banking system is also beginning to leave its mark. Small financial institutions have not been borrowing as aggressively as in recent years. Historically, this leads to a slowdown in the Chinese credit impulse (Chart I-6, bottom panel). Chart I-6Key Risk To Chinese Credit Growth Chinese##br## Policy Has Been Tightened Chart I-7The Chinese Economy Depends On Policy##br## Because Excess Savings Are Deflationary This is especially important as China is very reliant on policy support. As Chart I-7 shows, fiscal spending and credit creation contributed nearly twice as much to Chinese GDP as exports. This is because the Chinese economy's private savings exceed investments by 5% of GDP. If government spending or the lending machine slows, these excess savings are not used, creating deficient demand which imparts a deep deflationary influence on China and the global economy. We are already seeing early signs that the removal of stimulus is beginning to bite. The diffusion index of Chinese house prices, a key leading indicator of prices themselves, has fallen below the 50% line. Since Chinese real estate construction tends to lag prices, a slowdown in this sector is likely to emerge (Chart 8). Additionally, the slowdown in the leading economic indicator also highlights the risks to China's industrial activity as measured by the Keqiang Index (Chart I-8, bottom panel). The implications for EM are straightforward. EM economies outside of China have exhibited little domestic momentum, with poor credit growth of 5.5% and retail sales growth of 1.1%. Thus, a slowdown in Chinese monetary conditions could do what it historically does: lead to a slowdown in EM industrial production that will reverberate throughout the world (Chart I-9). Chart I-8Policy Is ##br##Biting Chart I-9EM Economies Don't Respond ##br##Well When China Tightens Bottom Line: The crucial factor that could explain why our favorite canary in the coal mine has begun to lose momentum is most likely to be tightening Chinese policy. China is dependent on policy actions to allocate its vast amount of savings. The tightening that began this year is already causing some symptoms to pop up in the Chinese economy. Since China has been the key driver of growth in other EM economies, these dynamics could begin to weigh on EM returns. EM/JPY carry trades will be the canary in the coal mine to judge whether or not these risks begin to weigh on global growth. Other Considerations And Some Implications Positioning considerations could exacerbate the negative impulse emanating from Chinese policy. To begin with, investors are not positioned for this. Not only are risk reversals in EM currencies still pricing in a very benign outcome, short interest in popular EM bond plays remain very low. Thus, the risk of a sharp repositioning in EM plays is high; in fact, it is much higher than for much-maligned assets like the supposedly over-loved S&P 500 (Chart I-10). Japanese investors have been heavily investing outside of their country, and since 2016, EM markets have been the recipients of these portfolio flows. But as Chart I-11 shows, these Japanese flows seem to have been chasing momentum into EM. Thus, if EM assets begin to suffer from a tightening of policy in China, the Japanese flows could reverse, causing a drying out of liquidity conditions in EM and exacerbating the pain already induced by China. Chart I-10Investors Are Oblivious ##br##To EM Risks Chart I-11Japanese Investors Are ##br##Chasing EM Momentum DM monetary policy and inflation dynamics also can play a key role. Carry trades have historically been a play on low volatility in capital markets. An environment of improving growth, low inflation surprises, and easy monetary policy has been key to support this low-volatility state. However, BCA believes that U.S. inflation is set to surprise to the upside, which will contribute to a tighter Federal Reserve. The European Central Bank will begin tapering its asset purchases and the Bank of Japan has ramped up its hawkishness despite the absence of inflation in Japan. This is likely to contribute to an increase in volatility that should prove especially harmful for carry trades in the FX space. This should tighten global liquidity conditions, especially in emerging markets. We will explore this angle in more detail in an upcoming report. Chart I-12EM/JPY Carry Informs EUR/USD In terms of investment implications, if EM carry trades were to break down in the near future, this would represent a major risk to the views espoused in the BCA Outlook and the investment recommendations associated with it. Most obviously, it would have an immediate negative impact on commodity currencies, since it would point to tightening liquidity and financial conditions in EM economies that will impact global industrial activity. The expensive AUD would be the currency most likely to suffer in this environment. The Scandinavian currencies would also suffer against the euro. Scandinavian economies have been highly levered to EM growth, and historically the SEK and the NOK have been greatly affected by EM spreads and commodity prices.1 The dovish bend of the Norges Bank and the Riksbank would only strengthen these negative impulses. EUR/USD would also likely suffer. As we argued two weeks ago, in the past 12 months, the euro has not behaved as a risk-off currency. In fact, quite the contrary, the euro has rallied alongside traditional EM plays, as the euro area has benefited from the positive economic impulse emanating from EM economies.2 Moreover, historically, EUR/USD has weakened when EM/JPY canaries have depreciated (Chart I-12). Finally, the yen would obviously enjoy such an unwinding of carry trades. We are currently negative the yen on U.S. bond yield dynamics. However, an underperformance of carry trades would prompt much short covering in the JPY as well as repatriation flows into Japan. If the EM canaries weaken further. We will be forced to change our stance on the JPY. Bottom Line: Investors are not positioned for any meaningful weakness in EM/JPY carries, and Japanese flows could move in reverse in a heartbeat. DM policy too is becoming a risk for these carry plays. China's tightening is thus coming at a terrible time for these carry trades. If canaries were to weaken, the AUD would bear the brunt of the pain among G10 currencies. The NOK and the SEK would also underperform a euro that would be falling against the USD. The yen would likely be able to rally in this environment. EUR/USD: Focus On The Western Shores Of The Atlantic Last week, data from Europe once again confirmed that growth in the euro area is stellar. Meanwhile, rate expectations declined in the U.S. as the Fed minutes displayed an FOMC increasingly concerned with the conundrum of a very tight labor market and weak inflation. EUR/USD rallied by 1%. But what really drove the rally in EUR/USD this year? It first and foremost reflected a massive repricing in relative rate expectations between the euro area and the U.S. However, most of this repricing was caused by a decline in the U.S. terminal rate, not an upward adjustment in the European policy end-point (Chart I-13). Chart I-13EUR/USD: All About Falling ##br##U.S. Terminal Rates Chart I-14Most Major Euro Area Economies Experienced##br## Little Inflationary Pressures In 2017 U.S terminal rates have fallen because the market doesn't believe the Fed's interest rate forecast, as core PCE has collapsed by nearly 45 basis points despite a U.S. economy at full employment. Meanwhile, long-term rate expectations in the euro area have remained flat because core inflation did not move much in the major euro area economies (Chart I-14). Going forward, the U.S. terminal rate is likely to move higher against that of the euro area. U.S. inflation is set to accelerate versus the euro area as financial conditions in Europe have tightened massively versus the U.S. since early 2016, a factor we have highlighted in the past.3 The strength in the U.S. economy is also considerable, and would argue that since the U.S. is more advanced in the business cycle than the euro area, this strength is more likely to generate inflationary pressures in the U.S. than in the euro area (Chart I-15). Moreover, U.S. tax cuts are looking increasingly likely in 2018, which will only add fuel to the U.S. fire. We continue to expect the Fed to follow its "dots," generating a policy outcome well in excess of what is currently priced into the OIS curve. If our base-case scenario for the Fed unfolds, for interest rate differentials to stay constant, the EONIA rate would need to be at 1% by the end of 2020 (Chart I-16). In our view, this is highly unlikely, and we expect rate differentials to move in favor of the USD. Chart I-15Europe Is Strong, ##br##But So Is The U.S. Chart I-16Fed Funds Rate Scenarios ECB Rates Will Have To ##br##Rise Much More To Match What The Fed Will Deliver An EONIA rate of 1% by the end of 2020 will not only defy what the ECB is currently forecasting, it will also be the highest rates since Trichet committed his infamous 2011 policy mistake of hiking rates. In order for European rates to be that high by that date, global growth will have to still be stellar. If this is the case, U.S. rates are likely to be even higher than what the Fed dots are currently implying. This means that based on our expectations for global growth, U.S. inflation and European inflation, the most likely path for rate differentials is that they widen in favor of the U.S. as the Fed still is in a better position to increase rates than the ECB. This expected widening in spreads between the U.S. and the euro area will favor a move in EUR/USD toward 1.10 by the middle of 2018. An adverse move in EM liquidity conditions only adds credence to these dynamics as it will affect European growth more than it will affect U.S. growth. Moreover, safe-haven flows associated with EM weakness would only add to global demand for the USD. Bottom Line: EUR/USD rallied in line with changes in relative terminal rates in 2018. However, this did not reflect an upgrade to the expected terminal rate in the euro area; it mostly reflected a downgrade to the U.S. terminal rate. We do anticipate this downgrade in the expected U.S. terminal rate to reverse course, especially when compared to the euro area. U.S. growth will accelerate further and U.S. inflation will outpace that of the euro area. In an environment where the Fed hikes in line with its "dots," the EONIA rate will not be able to follow, which will put downward pressure on EUR/USD. GBP/USD: Divorce-Bill Rally? This week, the U.K. agreed that its share of liabilities to the EU is around EUR100 billion, which would mean a net payment of around EUR50 billion. The GBP rallied massively in response to this news as markets interpreted this as a sign that negotiations on future trade relationships would start. The pound is very cheap on a PPP basis, and is likely to generate attractive returns on a long-term time horizon. However, Brexit is far from being over. Nagging questions regarding the Irish border remain, and the EU clearly has the upper hand in the negotiations. Moreover, Brexit would hurt both British trade and British potential growth. While abandoning Brexit down the road would help the GBP, this would happen around much political turmoil and result in a likely Corbyn government. When we compare all these positives and negatives, at the current juncture, it is highly unlikely that GBP/USD and EUR/GBP will escape their post-June 2016 trading range. In the short term, EUR/GBP is likely to hit 0.84, and cable, 1.37. We would use moves to such levels to sell the pound on a tactical basis. A move below the post Brexit lows is also highly unlikely as long as the stalemate continues. Mathieu Savary, Vice President Foreign Exchange Strategy mathieu@bcaresearch.com Juan Manuel Correa, Research Analyst juanc@bcaresearch.com 1 Please see Foreign Exchange Strategy Special Report, titled "Global Perspective On Currencies: A PCA Approach For The FX Market", dated September 16, 2016, available at fes.bcaresearch.com 2 Please see Foreign Exchange Strategy Weekly Report, titled "Euro: Risk On Or Risk Off?", dated November 17, 2017, available at fes.bcaresearch.com 3 Please see Foreign Exchange Strategy Weekly Report, titled "The Best Of Possible Worlds?", dated October 6, 2017, available at fes.bcaresearch.com Currencies U.S. Dollar Chart II-1USD Technicals 1 Chart II-2USD Technicals 2 U.S. data was positive this week: Annualized GDP growth came in at 3.3%, above the expected 3.2%; The PCE price deflator grew at a 1.6% annual rate, above the expected 1.5%, while the core PCE deflator stayed in line with expectations at 1.4%; Initial jobless claims were lower than expected at 238,000; However, the dollar was only up against the CAD and the NZD, while down against all other G10 currencies as the nomination of Marvin Goodfriend as a member of the FOMC was interpreted as a potential dovish move by the markets. The U.S. 10-year yield was up 4 basis points on higher inflation expectations. U.S. growth is now beginning to outperform Germany's 3.2% annualized GDP growth which should help translate into higher inflation relative to the euro area next year, which will shift upside risk in the favor of the dollar. Report Links: The Xs And The Currency Market - November 24, 2017 It's Not My Cross To Bear - October 27, 2017 Currency Hedging: Dynamic Or Static? - A Practical Guide For Global Investors - September 29, 2017 The Euro Chart II-3EUR Technicals 1 Chart II-4EUR Technicals 2 European data was mixed: German CPI was strong, with the headline measure growing at 1.8%, and the harmonized index also at 1.8%; German retail sales contracted at an annual rate of 1.4%; The number of unemployed people in Germany declined by 18,000 yet the unemployment rate stayed flat at 5.6%; European unemployment decreased to 8.8% from 8.9%; Euro area inflation increased by less than expected at 1.5% on an annual basis. Despite this mixed data, the euro was up 0.6% against the dollar on Thursday. Certain European metrics such as Industrial Confidence are also at all-time highs, levels at which a reversal is increasingly likely. Robust U.S. growth and higher inflation could serve as an indicator that the tide is about to turn in the favor of the greenback as the Fed resumes its hiking cycle. Report Links: The Xs And The Currency Market - November 24, 2017 Temporary Short-Term Rates - November 10, 2017 Market Update - October 27, 2017 The Yen Chart II-5JPY Technicals 1 Chart II-6JPY Technicals 2 Recent data in Japan has been mixed: Nikkei Manufacturing PMI outperformed expectations, coming in at 53.8. Meanwhile, large retailers sales growth also outperformed expectations, coming at -0.7%. Nevertheless, this was a decline from last month's 1.9% expansion. Industrial production growth surprised to the downside, coming in at 5.9%. Finally housing starts also underperformed expectations, coming in at -4.8% and declining even more from last month's -2.9% reading. On Sunday, the BoJ unexpectedly shifted to a less dovish stance, as they hinted that their yield curve control program might be watered down next year. This change in rhetoric could limit the JPY's downside. In fact, the risk growing risk that EM carry trades could begin to crack down even raises the probability that a yen rally unfolds. In this environment trades like short AUD/JPY and short NZD/JPY would benefit greatly. Report Links: The Xs And The Currency Market - November 24, 2017 Temporary Short-Term Rates - November 10, 2017 Currency Hedging: Dynamic Or Static? - A Practical Guide For Global Investors - September 29, 2017 British Pound Chart II-7GBP Technicals 1 Chart II-8GBP Technicals 2 Recent data in the U.K. has been negative Consumer credit underperformed expectations, coming in at 1.451 billion pounds, and declining from the previous month's number. Moreover, mortgage approvals also underperformed expectations, coming in at 64,575. This number was also decline from last month's reading. GBP/USD has appreciated by almost 1% this week, as the United Kingdom and the European Union seem to have agreed that the cost to the U.K. for leaving the EU will be 50 billion euro. Overall, it is unclear whether this breakthrough in the negotiations will be positive or negative for the pound, as many details are yet to be defined. We continue to be negative on cable on the short term, as we expect rate differentials to favor the U.S. over the U.K. Report Links: The Xs And The Currency Market - November 24, 2017 Reverse Alchemy: How To Transform Gold Into Lead - November 3, 2017 Currency Hedging: Dynamic Or Static? - A Practical Guide For Global Investors - September 29, 2017 Australian Dollar Chart II-9AUD Technicals 1 Chart II-10AUD Technicals 2 Data for Australia was mixed: Private sector credit grew at a 5.3% annual pace, albeit slower than the previous 5.4% figure; Building permits increased sharply by 18.4% annually; Private capital expenditure grew in line with expectations at 1%; Chinese Manufacturing PMI was strong, coming in at 51.8 - stronger than the previous 51.6 and the expected 51.4; Stronger Chinese data buoyed the AUD, however, the Aussie is still weighed down by low wages and a dovish RBA stance. The recent outperformance of the yen versus high carry currencies could be foreshadowing a growth-negative event, especially as Chinese authorities are tightening policy. Report Links: The Xs And The Currency Market - November 24, 2017 Currency Hedging: Dynamic Or Static? - A Practical Guide For Global Investors - September 29, 2017 Updating Our Long-Term Fair Value Models - September 15, 2017 New Zealand Dollar Chart II-11NZD Technicals 1 Chart II-12NZD Technicals 2 On Tuesday, the RBNZ announced that they will ease mortgage lending restrictions, as it expects policies by the new government to dampen the housing market. After January 1st, banks will be allowed to provide more low-deposit home loans to owner occupiers. Moreover the down payment required to obtain a mortgage will also decline. This announcement by the RBNZ goes in line with our view that the new populist government, will curb immigration, and thus curb pressures in the kiwi economy. Overall we remain bearish on the NZD against the U.S. dollar and against the yen, as we expect global growth to slow down momentarily by the end of the year, as China continues to tighten monetary policy. However, we remain bearish on AUD/NZD as the AUD would suffer more than the NZD in this environment. Report Links: The Xs And The Currency Market - November 24, 2017 Reverse Alchemy: How To Transform Gold Into Lead - November 3, 2017 Updating Our Long-Term Fair Value Models - September 15, 2017 Canadian Dollar Chart II-13CAD Technicals 1 Chart II-14CAD Technicals 2 Data out of Canada was decent: Industrial product prices are growing at a 1% monthly pace, higher than the expected 0.5% pace; Raw materials Index increased by 3.8% in October, higher than the previous 0.2% contraction, pointing to higher inflation; The current account deficit grew to CAD -19.53 bn, better than the expected CAD -19.50 bn. However, the CAD has displayed some weakness recently following Governor Poloz's comments about financial stability within the economy. These fragilities mostly involve household debt and the housing market, which continue to be carefully monitored by the BoC. Report Links: The Xs And The Currency Market - November 24, 2017 Market Update - October 27, 2017 Currency Hedging: Dynamic Or Static? - A Practical Guide For Global Investors - September 29, 2017 Swiss Franc Chart II-15CHF Technicals 1 Chart II-16CHF Technicals 2 Recent data in Switzerland has been mixed: Gross domestic Product growth outperformed expectations, coming in at 1.2%. This measure also increased form a growth rate of 0.5% the previous quarter. Moreover, the KOF leading indicator also surprised to the upside, coming in at 110.3. Industrial production yearly growth also continued to increase, coming in at 5.5% However real retail sales growth underperformed expectations substantially, contracting at a 3% pace, after a 0.5% growth in September. EUR/CHF has appreciated by nearly 0.8% this week. Overall we continue to believe that Swiss inflation is still too weak for the SNB to stop intervening in the franc. We will continue to monitor the Swiss economy and global economy for inflationary pressures, to get an idea when the SNB might shift its monetary stance. Report Links: The Xs And The Currency Market - November 24, 2017 Updating Our Long-Term Fair Value Models - September 15, 2017 Balance Of Payments Across The G10 - August 4, 2017 Norwegian Krone Chart II-17NOK Technicals 1 Chart II-18NOK Technicals 2 Recent data in Norway has been negative: Retail sales growth underperformed expectations, coming in at -0.2%. Moreover Norway's credit indicator also underperformed coming in at 5.7%. USD/NOK has rallied by roughly 2% this week, as the NOK has experienced a dramatic sell off across the board. This sell off has been caused by the decline in oil prices that we have experienced this week. This is partly because positioning in oil seems to be over stretched, thus a tactical correction in oil prices is expected. Overall, regardless of the outlook for oil prices, we continue to be bullish on USD/NOK, as this cross will mostly trade on rate differentials between Norway and the U.S. rather than on oil prices. Report Links: The Xs And The Currency Market - November 24, 2017 Updating Our Long-Term Fair Value Models - September 15, 2017 10 Charts For A Late-August Day - August 25, 2017 Swedish Krona Chart II-19SEK Technicals 1 Chart II-20SEK Technicals 2 Data out of Sweden was disappointing: Retail sales growth slowed to 0.1% monthly and 2.6% annually, compared to the expected 0.2% and 3.4% rates, respectively; The trade balance went into negative territory, coming in at SEK -3.1 bn, compared to the previous SEK 3.2 bn; Annual GDP growth in Q3 was only 2.9% compared to the expected 3.5%. The Q2 data point was also revised downwards from 4% to 2.7%. While quarterly growth was in line with expectations at 0.8%, it still weakened from the previous quarterly growth of 1.2% - which was also revised down from 1.7%. The Riksbank will take these data points into account in their next meeting in two weeks and is likely to stay dovish especially as Stefan Ingves has been re-appointed as governor, adding downward pressure on the krona against the dollar. Report Links: The Xs And The Currency Market - November 24, 2017 Updating Our Long-Term Fair Value Models - September 15, 2017 Balance Of Payments Across The G10 - August 4, 2017 Trades & Forecasts Forecast Summary Core Portfolio Tactical Trades Closed Trades

Highlights Idea 1: Long Eurodollar, short Euribor - December 2022 interest rate futures contracts. Alternatively just go outright long the Eurodollar contract. Idea 2: Long EUR/USD Idea 3: Underweight Basic Materials equities versus market. Alternative expressions are to go short the LMEX index, or underweight Norway (OMX) versus Ireland (ISE). Idea 4: Long Norwegian 10-year bonds, short German 10-year bunds. Idea 5: Long U.K. 10-year gilts, short Irish 10-year bonds. Feature Question 1: Where Is The Worrying Imbalance? Last week, in the Quantum Theory Of Finance,1 we pointed out that when bond yields reach ultra-low levels, the payoff profile from bonds becomes highly asymmetric. When yields approach a lower bound, they cannot fall much further but they can rise a lot. Meaning that bond prices have very limited potential for gains, but have great potential for sudden and deep losses. Chart of the WeekThe Norway Versus Euro Area Bond Yield Spread Is Too Wide The unattractive asymmetric payoff profile - known as negative skew - applies to both nominal and real returns. This is because negative skew is concerned about deep nominal losses over a relatively short period. In which case, a deep nominal loss will be a deep real loss too.2 As equity returns always possess negative skew we can say that at ultra-low bond yields, bond risk becomes equity-like. Given this risk equalization, equities no longer justify a risk premium over bonds. And the lower prospective return required from equities means that today's equity valuations and prices become a lot richer. But the new delicate balance of valuations is conditional on bond yields remaining ultra-low. This is because the unattractive negative skew on a 10-year bond's returns disappears when its yield moves up into the 'high 2s' (Chart I-2). At this point, risk is no longer equalized and the equity risk premium must fully re-emerge - requiring today's equity market valuation and price to drop, perhaps substantially. However, the ensuing fight to havens would then once again pull bond yields back down from the 'high 2s'. It follows that the rise in expected interest rates is self-limiting. Any policy interest rate expectation already in the 'high 2s' - such as the Eurodollar December 2022 contract - cannot sustainably rise much further, whereas those that are still some way below - such as the Euribor December 2022 contract - can (Chart I-3). Which leads to our first investment idea. Chart I-2Bonds Become Much More ##br##Risky At Ultra-Low Yields Chart I-3The Euro Area/U.S. Interest Rate Expectation ##br##Spread Is Too Wide Investment idea 1: Long Eurodollar, short Euribor - December 2022 interest rate futures contracts. Alternatively just go outright long the Eurodollar contract. Question 2: Which Is The Safest Currency To Hold? Chart I-4Euro/Dollar Just Tracks ##br##The Bond Yield Spread To reiterate, at ultra-low bond yields, bond returns offer a highly unattractive payoff profile. Put simply, you can quickly lose a lot more money - in both nominal and real terms - than you can make! Now observe that the payoff profile for a foreign exchange rate just tracks the bond yield spread (Chart I-4). This means that when a central bank has already taken bond yields close to their lower bound, its currency possesses a highly attractive payoff profile called positive skew. In essence, as the ECB is at the realistic limit of ultra-loose policy, the direction of policy rate expectations cannot go significantly lower. Conversely, policy rate expectations for the Federal Reserve (for 2022) are not far from our upper bound of the 'high 2s'. So these expectations cannot go significantly higher without threatening a risk-asset selloff. On this basis, EUR/USD has more scope to gap up than to gap down. Investment idea 2: Long EUR/USD But be aware that investment ideas 1 and 2 are highly correlated with each other! Question 3: Where Are We In The Global Growth Mini-Cycle? Global growth experiences remarkably consistent - and therefore predictable - 'mini-cycles', with half-cycle lengths averaging 8 months. As the current mini-upswing started in May we can infer that it is likely to end in early 2018. So one surprise in 2018 could be that global growth slows in the first half rather than in the second half - contrary to what the consensus is expecting. That said, half-cycle lengths do have some degree of variation: the current upswing might be a few months longer or shorter than the average. So how can we avoid positioning too early or too late for the next turn? The answer is to focus on investments that have already fully priced the current upswing, so that timing becomes less of an issue. On this basis, we propose that the rally in industrial metals and Basic Materials equities is already extended. Our technical indicator which captures herding and groupthink correctly identified the trough at the end of 2015, the mini-peak at the end of 2016, and is now signalling that the latest rally is likely to fade (Chart I-5 and Chart I-6). Chart I-5Metals Have Fully Priced ##br##The Mini-Upswing... Chart I-6...And The Metal Rally Is Reaching##br## Its Technical Limit Investment idea 3: Underweight Basic Materials equities versus market. Alternative expressions are to go short the LMEX index, or underweight Norway (OMX) versus Ireland (ISE). Question 4: Will Inflation Lift Off? The ECB's continued indulgence with ultra-loose monetary policy would make you think that the euro area is on the edge of a deflationary abyss. In fact, inflation has been running comfortably within a 0-2% band for almost two years. Will inflation edge closer to the ECB's 2% point target? Given our view on the growth mini-cycle, not immediately. In the first half of 2018, inflation may even edge lower within the 0-2% band, but this global dynamic will affect inflation in all jurisdictions, not just in the euro area. There is nothing wrong with inflation running comfortably within a 0-2% band. Now that we know that nominal interest rates can go slightly negative, a 0-2% inflation band even permits negative real interest rates. The big mistake is to aim for an arbitrary point target, like 2%. This is because inflation is a non-linear phenomenon, and a defining characteristic of a non-linear phenomenon is that it cannot hit an arbitrary point target.3 It is our high conviction expectation that the major central banks will eventually change their point targets for inflation into target bands such as 0-2% or 1-3%. But afraid to lose credibility, they will not change tack abruptly. In the meantime, we notice that the Norges Bank is undershooting its 2.5% inflation target by considerably more than the ECB is undershooting its 2% target (Chart I-7). Yet the yield spread between Norwegian and euro area bonds has not caught up with this reality (Chart of the Week). Chart I-7The Norges Bank Is Undershooting Its Inflation Target By More Than The ECB Investment idea 4: Long Norwegian 10-year bonds, short German 10-year bunds. Question 5: Will Political Risk Re-emerge? Political events have had a hand in three of the sharpest recent moves in financial markets. The vote for Brexit catalysed a 15% decline in the pound; the vote for Trump triggered an 80 bps spike in the 10-year T-bond yield, and the vote for Macron unleashed a 10% rally in the euro. Political change disrupts markets if it dislocates the long-term expectations embedded in economic agents and financial prices. The vote for Brexit changed expectations about the U.K.'s long-term trading relationships; the election of Trump changed expectations about fiscal stimulus, the tax structure, and protectionism (perhaps unrealistically); and the election of Macron exorcised the potential chaos of a Le Pen presidency. Chart I-8The U.K. Versus Ireland Bond ##br##Yield Spread Is Too Wide In contrast, the recent (disputed) vote for independence in Catalonia, and the breakdown of coalition discussions in Germany barely moved the markets - because neither event changed expectations of long-term economic outcomes. As investors, this is the test we should apply to all political events. In 2018, the evolution of Brexit has the potential to move markets. This is because hard Brexiters and the EU27 are on a collision course. Specifically, the issue of the Irish border is insoluble. It is Brexit's Gordian knot. Theresa May has promised the hard Brexiters that the U.K. will leave the EU customs union and single market. She has also promised the Northern Ireland Unionists - who are propping up May's minority government - that there will be no hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland or the rest of the U.K. But these promises are irreconcilable. The Republic of Ireland will veto a border that threatens the Good Friday peace agreement; the Northern Ireland Unionists will not tolerate the border moving to the Irish Sea, which would effectively take Northern Ireland into the EU customs union and single market; and the EU27 will block a Hong Kong type 'free port' status for Northern Ireland - as this would remove the integrity of harmonized standards across the EU. Eventually, the impenetrable Irish border problem is likely to be the roadblock to a hard Brexit. But first there needs to be a collision. And the collision could move markets. With the yield spread between U.K. 10-year gilts and Irish 10-year bonds near a 2-year wide (Chart I-8), this leads us to our fifth investment idea. Investment idea 5: Long U.K. 10-year gilts, short Irish 10-year bonds. Dhaval Joshi, Senior Vice President Chief European Investment Strategist dhaval@bcaresearch.com 1 Please see the European Investment Strategy Special Report 'The Quantum Theory Of Finance' November 23 2017 available at eis.bcaresearch.com. 2 For example if the nominal return over 3 months was a very painful -10%, and inflation was running at -10% per annum, the real return over 3 months would be a still very painful -7.5%. 3 Please see the European Investment Strategy Weekly Report 'Three Mantras For Investors' August 17 2017 available at eis.bcaresearch.com. Fractal Trading Model* Ahead of the OPEC meeting on November 30, the WTI crude oil price is vulnerable to any disappointment - because its rally is technically very extended. This week's trade recommendation is to expect a retracement of 7.5% with a symmetrical stop-loss. For any investment, excessive trend following and groupthink can reach a natural point of instability, at which point the established trend is highly likely to break down with or without an external catalyst. An early warning sign is the investment's fractal dimension approaching its natural lower bound. Chart I-9 The post-June 9, 2016 fractal trading model rules are: When the fractal dimension approaches the lower limit after an investment has been in an established trend it is a potential trigger for a liquidity-triggered trend reversal. Therefore, open a countertrend position. The profit target is a one-third reversal of the preceding 13-week move. Apply a symmetrical stop-loss. Close the position at the profit target or stop-loss. Otherwise close the position after 13 weeks. Use the position size multiple to control risk. The position size will be smaller for more risky positions.Encouragingly, this trigger has consistently identified countertrend moves of various magnitudes across all asset classes. * For more details please see the European Investment Strategy Special Report "Fractals, Liquidity & A Trading Model," dated December 11, 2014, available at eis.bcaresearch.com Fractal Trading Model Recommendations Equities Bond & Interest Rates Currency & Other Positions Closed Fractal Trades Trades Closed Trades Asset Performance Currency & Bond Equity Sector Country Equity Indicators Bond Yields Chart II-1Indicators To Watch - Bond Yields Chart II-2Indicators To Watch - Bond Yields Chart II-3Indicators To Watch - Bond Yields Chart II-4Indicators To Watch - Bond Yields Interest Rate Chart II-5Indicators To Watch##br## - Interest Rate Expectations Chart II-6Indicators To Watch##br## - Interest Rate Expectations Chart II-7Indicators To Watch##br## - Interest Rate Expectations Chart II-8Indicators To Watch##br## - Interest Rate Expectations