Sweden

Highlights Either go long Eurodollar / short Euribor June 2019 interest rate futures. Or long the U.S. 5-year T-bond / short German 5-year bund. Or long euro/dollar (though our preferred long euro expression is long euro/pound near term and long euro/yuan structurally). All three of the above are just one big correlated trade. Long-term equity investors should consider a 50:50 combination of Germany (DAX) and Sweden (OMX) as a superior alternative to the Eurostoxx50 or Eurostoxx600. But near term, remain cautious on risk-assets. Feature On the face of it, the ECB has committed to leave interest rates where they are for a very long time. "The Governing Council continues to expect the key ECB interest rates to remain at present or lower levels for an extended period of time, and well past the horizon of the net asset purchases"1 But take a closer look at this commitment, and an extended period of time could mean as little as a year. As things stand, "the horizon of the net asset purchases" has only nine more months to run, and "well past" could justifiably mean just six months or less beyond that. Furthermore, at the last press conference Draghi emphasized that forward guidance "is an expectation" and that the probabilities of the ECB's expectations are constantly changing. Remember also that the ECB has three policy interest rates:2 the deposit rate (-0.4%), the repo rate (0%) and the marginal lending rate (0.25%) - and the ECB doesn't have to move all three in tandem. Indeed in 2015, the ECB cut the deposit rate before the other two rates (Chart I-2). So it is quite conceivable that the ECB could hike the deposit rate before the other two rates and as soon as a year or so from now. Chart of the WeekGermany/Sweden Combination Has Run A Good Race With The U.S. Chart I-2The ECB Could Hike Its Deposit Rate Early ECB council member Ewald Nowotny hinted as much in a Handelsblatt interview last week, saying that all interest rates wouldn't have to be increased simultaneously nor to the same extent. "The ECB could raise the deposit rate earlier than the prime rate." A Major Mispricing: ECB Versus Fed This neatly brings us to one of the most extreme pricings in financial markets at the moment. The expected difference between ECB looseness and Fed tightness two years ahead stands at a 20-year extreme (Chart I-3). Chart I-3An Extreme Pricing: ECB Versus Fed Yet the percentage of the euro area population in employment is at an all-time high (Chart I-4), while on an apples for apples comparison, there is no difference between economic growth, inflation, or inflation expectations in the euro area and the U.S.3 Moreover, Draghi points out that "the risks surrounding euro area growth relate predominantly to global factors." If these global risks do materialise, it would prevent both the ECB and the Fed hiking rates through 2018. But if these global risks do not materialise, allowing the Fed to continue hiking through 2018, is it really conceivable that the ECB just sits pat? We think not. On this basis, investors should either go long Eurodollar / short Euribor June 2019 interest rate futures. Or long the U.S. 5-year T-bond / short German 5-year bund. Or long euro/dollar (though we prefer long euro/pound near term and long euro/yuan structurally). We say "either or" because all three positions are just one big correlated trade (Chart I-5). Chart I-4Percentage Of Euro Area Population In##br## Employment Near An All-Time High! Chart I-5Correlated Trade: Interest Rate Futures,##br## Bond Yield Spreads, Ans EUR/USD The French Election: "System 1" And "System 2" The looming risk to this big correlated trade takes the form of the upcoming French Presidential Election. Two data points do not make a trend, but some people are worried that the same dynamic that delivered shock electoral victories for Brexit and Donald Trump in 2016 could propel Marine Le Pen to the Elysée Palace in 2017. This worry is overdone. In explaining the Brexit and Trump shock victories, an important point has been understated. These days many voters care more about politicians' personalities than policies. Emotional appeal arguably matters more than rational appeal. Behavioural psychologist and Nobel Laureate Daniel Kahneman calls the emotional way of thinking "System 1", and the colder rational way of thinking "System 2". Both the Brexit and Trump campaigns resonated strongly with emotional System 1. A lot of voters warmed to Boris Johnson, a leader of the Brexit campaign, and to Donald Trump. By contrast, the Bremain and Hillary Clinton campaigns tried to appeal mainly to cold rational System 2. But as Kahneman explains, when cold rational System 2 competes with emotional System 1, emotional System 1 almost always wins. In this regard, the dynamic of the French Presidential election is very different to the U.K.'s EU Referendum and the U.S. Presidential Election. Charles Grant, director of the Centre for European Reform, points out that "Emmanuel Macron's personality, and notably his charm, calm authority and courage may well (emotionally) appeal to more voters than Marine Le Pen's simplistic remedies and bitterness." Therefore, a final run off between Le Pen and Macron - as now seems highly likely - does not give us sleepless nights. But we would be concerned if the final run off were between Le Pen and the much less emotionally appealing François Fillon (Chart I-6 and Chart I-7). Chart I-6A Final Run Off Between Le Pen & Macron... Chart I-7...Does Not Give Us Sleepless Nights Incidentally, both Daniel Kahneman and Charles Grant will be speaking at our forthcoming New York Conference on September 25-26, and promise to provide fascinating investment insights from their areas of expertise. So book your places now! A Better Way To Invest In Europe: Germany And Sweden All of this might suggest that the Eurostoxx50 should outperform the S&P500. Not necessarily. Extreme economic and political tail-events aside, there is almost no connection between national or regional economic relative performance and stock market relative performance. As we demonstrated in the Fallacy Of Division,4 by far the biggest driver of Eurostoxx50 versus S&P500 performance is its sector skew. The Eurostoxx50 has a major 15% weighting to banks and a minor 7% weighting to tech. The S&P500 is the mirror image; a minor 7% weighting to banks and a major 22% weighting to tech. Furthermore, this overarching driver is captured in just the three largest euro area banks versus the three largest U.S. tech stocks. So relative performance simply reduces to whether Banco Santander, BNP Paribas and ING outperform Apple, Microsoft and Google,5 or vice-versa. Everything else is largely irrelevant. But this begs the question: can a different combination of European markets neutralise the sector skew and thereby provide a fairer head-to-head contest with the tech-heavy S&P500? At first glance, the answer seems to be no. Europe simply does not have the same type of technology companies that the U.S. has. So no combination of European markets can match the S&P500 tech exposure. On the other hand, Europe is the world-leader in a different type of technology: innovative industrial equipment and materials. It turns out that a 50:50 combination of Germany (DAX) and Sweden (OMX) matches the exposure to European industrial equipment and materials with the exposure to American tech. At the same time, the DAX/OMX combination largely removes Europe's bank overweight. The upshot is that the DAX/OMX combination has run a very good race with the S&P500 through the past 10 years, while the Eurostoxx50 has failed to keep the pace (Chart of the Week). In effect, DAX/OMX versus S&P500 reduces to Siemens, Bayer and Atlas Copco versus Apple, Microsoft and Google (Chart I-8). Compared to the euro area banks, Europe's innovative industrial equipment and materials are a much better long-term match-up against U.S. tech (Chart I-9). Indeed, my colleague, Brian Piccioni, BCA Technology strategist, points out that Bayer is a good play on the revolutionary new genetic modification technology CRISPR-Cas9.6 Chart I-8DAX/OMX Vs. S&P500 = Siemens, Bayer & Atlas Copco ##br##Vs. Apple, Microsoft & Google Chart I-9European Innovative Industrial Equipment & Materials ##br##Is A Good Match-Up Against American Tech Investors who want a long-term equity exposure to Europe should consider a 50:50 combination of Germany (DAX) and Sweden (OMX) as a superior alternative to the Eurostoxx50 or Eurostoxx600. Nevertheless, those who can fine-tune their timing should await a better entry-point for all risk-assets. Dhaval Joshi, Senior Vice President European Investment Strategy dhaval@bcaresearch.com 1 From the ECB introductory statement to the press conference, March 9 2017. 2 The deposit rate (-0.4%) is the rate at which commercial banks park their excess liquidity; the repo rate (0%) is the usually quoted policy rate for the ECB's standard money market operations; and the marginal lending rate (0.25%) is the rate at which commercial banks borrow from the central bank, usually when they cannot access interbank funding. 3 Please see the European Investment Strategy Weekly Report 'Fake News In Europe' January 26, 2017 available at eis.bcaresearch.com 4 Published on March 9, 2017 and available at eis.bcaresearch.com 5 Listed as Alphabet. 6 Please see the Technology Strategy and Global Investment Strategy Special Report 'CRISPR-Cas9: Investment Implications' March 17, 2017 available at www.bcaresearch.com Fractal Trading Model* There are no new trades this week. We are expressing a tactical short position in equities through a short exposure to the Netherlands AEX. For any investment, excessive trend following and groupthink can reach a natural point of instability, at which point the established trend is highly likely to break down with or without an external catalyst. An early warning sign is the investment's fractal dimension approaching its natural lower bound. Encouragingly, this trigger has consistently identified countertrend moves of various magnitudes across all asset classes. Chart I-10 * For more details please see the European Investment Strategy Special Report "Fractals, Liquidity & A Trading Model," dated December 11, 2014, available at eis.bcaresearch.com The post-June 9, 2016 fractal trading model rules are: When the fractal dimension approaches the lower limit after an investment has been in an established trend it is a potential trigger for a liquidity-triggered trend reversal. Therefore, open a countertrend position. The profit target is a one-third reversal of the preceding 13-week move. Apply a symmetrical stop-loss. Close the position at the profit target or stop-loss. Otherwise close the position after 13 weeks. Use the position size multiple to control risk. The position size will be smaller for more risky positions. Fractal Trading Model Recommendations Equities Bond & Interest Rates Currency & Other Positions Closed Fractal Trades Trades Closed Trades Asset Performance Currency & Bond Equity Sector Country Equity Indicators Bond Yields Chart II-1Indicators To Watch - Bond Yields Chart II-2Indicators To Watch - Bond Yields Chart II-3Indicators To Watch - Bond Yields Chart II-4Indicators To Watch - Bond Yields Interest Rate Chart II-5Indicators To Watch##br## - Interest Rate Expectations Chart II-6Indicators To Watch##br## - Interest Rate Expectations Chart II-7Indicators To Watch##br## - Interest Rate Expectations Chart II-8Indicators To Watch##br## - Interest Rate Expectations

The Tactical Asset Allocation model can provide investment recommendations which diverge from those outlined in our regular weekly publications. The model has a much shorter investment horizon - namely, one month - and thus attempts to capture very tactical opportunities. Meanwhile, our regular recommendations have a longer expected life, anywhere from 3-months to a year (or longer). This difference explains why the recommendations between the two publications can deviate from each other from time to time. Highlights In February, the model underperformed global equities and the S&P 500 in USD and local-currency terms. For March, the model slightly increased its allocation to stocks and cut its weighting in bonds (Chart 1). Within the equity portfolio, the allocation to Europe was increased. The model boosted its weightings to French and Australian bonds at the expense of Canadian and Swedish paper. The risk index for stocks, as well as the one for bonds, deteriorated in February. Feature Performance In February, the recommended balanced portfolio gained 2.1% in local-currency terms, and 0.2% in U.S. dollar terms (Chart 2). This compares with a gain of 3% for the global equity benchmark and a 3.3% gain for the S&P 500. Given that the underlying model is structured in local-currency terms, we generally recommend that investors hedge their positions, though we provide suggestions on currency risk exposure from time to time. The high allocation to bonds continued to hold back the model's performance. Chart 1Model Weights Chart 2Portfolio Total Returns Weights The model increased its allocation to stocks from 53% to 57%, and cut its bond weighting from 47% to 43% (Table 1). Table 1Model Weights (As Of February 23, 2017) The model increased its equity allocation to Dutch and Swedish equities by 4 points each, Germany and New Zealand by 2 points each, and France and Emerging Asia by 1 point each. Weightings were cut in Italy by 4 points, Latin America by 3 points, Spain by 2 points, and Switzerland by 1 point. In the fixed-income space, the allocation to Australia was boosted by 8 points, France by 6 points, and Germany by 4 points. The model cut its exposure to Swedish bonds by 9 points, Canadian bonds by 6 points, U.S. and U.K. bonds by 3 points each, and Kiwi bonds by 1 point. Currency Allocation Local currency-based indicators drive the construction of our model. As such, the performance of the model's portfolio should be compared with the local-currency global equity benchmark. The decision to hedge currency exposure should be made at the client's discretion, though from time to time, we do provide our recommendations. The most recent bout of dollar depreciation was halted in February. Our Dollar Capitulation Index is below neutral levels. However, it is not extended, meaning that it does not preclude renewed dollar weakness in the near term. That said, assuming no major negative economic surprises, a relatively more hawkish Fed versus its peers should provide support for the dollar (Chart 3). Chart 3U.S. Trade-Weighted Dollar* And Capitulation Capital Market Indicators The risk index for commodities was little changed in February. The model continues to avoid this asset class (Chart 4). The risk index for global equities rose to its highest level since early 2010, mostly on the back of deteriorating value. Despite this, the model slightly increased its allocation to equities (Chart 5). Chart 4Commodity Index And Risk Chart 5Global Stock Market And Risk The rally in U.S. stocks - driven by optimism about the economic outlook - pushed the value component of the risk index into expensive territory. The model kept a small allocation in U.S. equities. A change in the perception about the ability of the new U.S. administration to boost growth remains a risk for this market (Chart 6). The risk index for euro area equities continues to deteriorate. However, it remains lower than its U.S. counterpart. The continued flow of solid economic data and a weaker currency should bode well for euro area stocks, although political uncertainty is a potential headwind (Chart 7). Chart 6U.S. Stock Market And Risk Chart 7Euro Area Stock Market And Risk All three components of the risk index for Dutch equities are close to neutral levels. As a result, despite the recent deterioration in the overall risk index, it remains one of the lowest among the markets the model covers (Chart 8). The risk index for Swedish stocks worsened. However, the model increased its allocation to this bourse. Swedish equities would be a beneficiary of the continued risk-on environment (Chart 9). Chart 8Netherlands Stock Market And Risk Chart 9Swedish Stock Market And Risk The momentum indicator for global bonds is less stretched in February. Meanwhile, despite its latest decline, the cyclical indicator continues to signal that the positive global economic backdrop is firmly bond-bearish. Taken all together, the risk index for bonds deteriorated in February, although it still remains in the low-risk zone (Chart 10). U.S. Treasury yields moved sideways in February as investors await more guidance from the Fed on the timing of the next hike. A bond-negative cyclical indicator coupled with the unwinding of oversold conditions - as per the momentum measure - led to a deterioration in the risk index for U.S. Treasurys. The latter is almost back to neutral levels. The model trimmed the allocation to this asset class (Chart 11). Chart 10Global Bond Yields And Risk Chart 11U.S. Bond Yields And Risk The momentum indicator remains the main driver of the risk index for Canadian bonds. As a result, the less extreme momentum reading translated into an increase in the risk index for this asset class. (Chart 12). The risk index for Australian bonds moved lower in February, reflecting improvements in all three of its components. The model included the relatively high-yielding Aussie bonds in the portfolio. (Chart 13). Chart 12Canadian Bond Yields And Risk Chart 13Australian Bond Yields And Risk The cyclical indicator for euro area bonds is near expensive levels, and the momentum indicator shows heavily oversold conditions. These two measures are offsetting the cyclical one that is sending a bond-bearish message. While the overall risk index for euro area bonds is in the low-risk zone, the country allocation is concentrated in French paper (Chart 14). The risk level for French bonds is seen as low thanks to oversold momentum. French presidential elections are probably the most important political event in Europe this year. Whether the models' heavy allocation to this asset pans out hinges to a certain extent on the reduction of investor anxiety about this political risk (Chart 15). Chart 14Euro Area Bond Yields And Risk Chart 15French Bond Yields And Risk The 13-week momentum measure for the dollar broke below the zero line, and is currently sitting on its upward-sloping trendline, drawn from the 2010 lows, that has been broken only once before. Meanwhile, the 40-week rate of change measure is still suggesting that the dollar bull market has more legs on a cyclical horizon. Monetary divergences should lend support to the dollar over the cyclical horizon, although the new administration's attempts to talk down the dollar as well as heightened policy uncertainty could translate into more volatility (Chart 16). The weakening trend in the yen hit a snag two months ago, as the 13-week momentum measure reached the lows that previously foreshadowed a consolidation phase after sharp depreciations. This short-term rate-of-change measure has bounced smartly this year reaching a critical level. Meanwhile, the 40-week rate-of-change measure is not warning of a major change in the underlying trend which remains dictated by BoJ's dovish bias (Chart 17). EUR/USD has been gravitating towards 1.05 over the course of February. The short-term rate-of-change measure seems to be holding at the neutral level, while the 40-week rate-of-change measure is in negative territory, but hardly stretched. Political uncertainty has the potential to drive the euro in near term, but the longer-term outlook is mostly a function of the monetary policy divergence between the ECB and the Fed (Chart 18). Chart 16U.S. Trade-Weighted Dollar* Chart 17Yen Chart 18Euro Miroslav Aradski, Senior Analyst miroslava@bcaresearch.com

The Tactical Asset Allocation model can provide investment recommendations which diverge from those outlined in our regular weekly publications. The model has a much shorter investment horizon - namely, one month - and thus attempts to capture very tactical opportunities. Meanwhile, our regular recommendations have a longer expected life, anywhere from 3-months to a year (or longer). This difference explains why the recommendations between the two publications can deviate from each other from time to time. Highlights In December, the model underperformed global equities and the S&P in USD and local-currency terms. For January, the model increased its allocation to stocks and reduced its allocation to bonds (Chart 1). Within the equity portfolio, the weighting to euro area stocks was increased. The model boosted its allocation to Canadian and Swedish bonds at the expense of other European markets. The risk index for stocks deteriorated in December, as did the bond risk index. Feature Performance In December, the recommended balanced portfolio gained 2.1% in local-currency terms and 0.8% in U.S. dollar terms (Chart 2). This compares with a gain of 2.9% for the global equity benchmark and a 3.4% gain for the S&P 500 index. Given that the underlying model is structured in local-currency terms, we generally recommend that investors hedge their positions, though we provide other suggestions on currency risk exposure from time to time. The continued bonds selloff was a drag on the model's performance in December. Chart 1Model Weights Chart 2Portfolio Total Returns Weights The model increased its allocation to stocks from 53% to 57%, and trimmed its bond weighting from 47% to 43% (Table 1). The model boosted its equity allocation to Spain by 3 points, Germany by 2 points, Italy by 1 point, Japan by 1 point and France by 1 point. Meanwhile, weightings were reduced in Sweden by 3 points and New Zealand by 1 point. In the fixed-income space, the allocation to Canadian paper was boosted by 5 points, Sweden by 3 points, New Zealand by 2 points. The allocation to Italian bonds was reduced by 6 points, France by 4 points, U.K. by 3 points, and U.S. Treasurys by 1 point. Table 1Model Weights (As Of December 22, 2016) Currency Allocation Local currency-based indicators drive the construction of our model. As such, the performance of the model's portfolio should be compared with the local-currency global equity benchmark. The decision to hedge currency exposure should be made at the client's discretion, though from time to time, we do provide our recommendations. The dollar's attempt at consolidating its gains was cut short by the hawkish Fed. As a result, our Dollar Capitulation Index is back to levels that indicate the rally in the broad trade-weighted dollar could pause. However, unless the new administration pours cold water on expectations of a major fiscal boost, monetary policy divergence will underpin the dollar bull market (Chart 3). Chart 3U.S. Trade-Weighted Dollar* And Capitulation Capital Market Indicators The risk index for commodities improved slightly reflecting a better reading from the momentum indicator. However, this asset class remains excluded from the portfolio (Chart 4). The risk index for global equities remains at the highest level in over two years. Despite this, our model slightly increased its allocation in equities following four consecutive months of reductions (Chart 5). Chart 4Commodity Index And Risk Chart 5Global Stock Market And Risk The deterioration in the value and liquidity indicators for U.S. stocks was offset by some improvement in the momentum reading. As a result, the risk index for U.S. stocks was flat in December (Chart 6). The risk index for euro area equities increased in December and is now at neutral levels. However, even after the latest increase, the risk index for euro area stocks is noticeably lower than the U.S. measure (Chart 7). Positive growth momentum and a weaker currency could provide support for the euro area equities. Chart 6U.S. Stock Market And Risk Chart 7Euro Area Stock Market And Risk The model slightly increased its allocation to German equities despite the deterioration in the risk index (Chart 8). Unlike most of the equity risk indexes in the model's universe, the one for Emerging Asian stocks improved in December. The model kept its allocation to this asset unchanged (Chart 9). Chart 8German Stock Market And Risk Chart 9Emerging Asian Stock Market And Risk The risk index for bonds deteriorated in December, but remains at a historically low-risk level reflecting oversold readings from the momentum indicator. The model has trimmed its allocation to bonds a touch (Chart 10). The risk index for U.S. Treasurys was little changed in December. Despite its very low risk reading, the model is adding allocation to bond markets that feature more oversold conditions. (Chart 11). Chart 10Global Bond Yields And Risk Chart 11U.S. Bond Yields And Risk Canadian bonds remain massively oversold based on our momentum measure, and the overall risk index is at extremely low-risk levels. The model boosted its allocation to this asset (Chart 12). With oversold conditions unwinding and the cyclical indicator moving in a more bond-negative direction, the overall risk index for Italian bonds has shifted back to neutral levels. The model has excluded this asset class from its allocation (Chart 13). Chart 12Canadian Bond Yields And Risk Chart 13Italian Bond Yields and Risk U.K. bonds remain deeply in low-risk territory, despite a small deterioration in its risk index. The oversold reading in the momentum measure is completely overshadowing the negative signal from the cyclical indicator. Allocation to gilts remains one of the highest in the bond universe, even after the model trimmed its exposure to this market (Chart 14). The risk index for Swedish bonds fell once again in December reflecting improved readings in all of its components. Extremely oversold conditions dominate the overall risk index and suggest that a pullback in yields is overdue. The model boosted its allocation to Swedish paper. (Chart 15). Chart 14U.K. Bond Yields And Risk Chart 15Swedish Bond Yields And Risk Currency Technicals The 13-week momentum measure indicates that the dollar's ascent could face near-term resistance. However, the continued recovery in the 40-week rate of change measure suggests that the dollar bull market has more upside. The latest round of central bank meetings reinforces the monetary divergence between the Fed on one side, and the ECB and BoJ on the other (Chart 16). With the prospect of the Bank of Canada staying put, while its southern peer gradually raises rates, the rate differential should exert downward pressure on the CAD/USD. Technically, the breakdown of the longer-term rate-of-change measure is pointing in that direction. In addition, the short-term rate of change metric is not stretched. However, the risk to this view is that the headwinds for the loonie arising from monetary policy divergences can be mitigated by higher oil prices (Chart 17). With the BoJ pegging nominal JGB yields, the differential in real rates is supportive of a stronger USD/JPY. This cyclical outlook for the yen is being confirmed by the 40-week rate of change measure. That said, the 13-week momentum measure is at levels that have signaled a pause in the yen weakening trend in both 2013 and 2015 (Chart 18). Chart 16U.S. Trade-Weighted Dollar* Chart 17Canadian Dollar Chart 18Yen Miroslav Aradski, Senior Analyst miroslava@bcaresearch.com

The Tactical Asset Allocation model can provide investment recommendations which diverge from those outlined in our regular weekly publications. The model has a much shorter investment horizon - namely, one month - and thus attempts to capture very tactical opportunities. Meanwhile, our regular recommendations have a longer expected life, anywhere from 3-months to a year (or longer). This difference explains why the recommendations between the two publications can deviate from each other from time to time. Highlights In November, the model underperformed global equities and the S&P in USD and in local-currency terms. For December, the model reduced its allocation to cash and stocks and boosted its weighting in bonds (Chart 1). Within the equity portfolio, most of the decrease in allocation came at the expense of EM, Sweden, Netherlands, U.S., and New Zealand. The model increased its weighting in Swedish, French, U.K., and Canadian bonds. The risk index for stocks deteriorated in November, while the bond risk index improved significantly. Chart 1Model Weights Feature Performance In November, the recommended balanced portfolio lost 1.5% in local-currency terms and was down 3.4% in U.S. dollar terms (Chart 2). This compares with a gain of 1.3% for the global equity benchmark, and a 3.7% gain for the S&P 500 index. Given that the underlying model is structured in local-currency terms, we generally recommend that investors hedge their positions, though we do provide recommendations from time to time. The sharp bond selloff and weakness in EM equity markets both took a toll on the model's performance in November. Weights The model cut its allocation to stocks from 66% to 53%, and increased its bond weighting from 26% to 47%. The allocation to cash was brought down to zero from 8%, while commodities remain excluded from the portfolio (Table 1). The model trimmed its allocation to Latin American equities by 4 points, Sweden by 3 points, and the Netherlands by 3 points. Also, weightings were reduced in U.S., New Zealand, Spanish, and Emerging Asian stocks. In the fixed-income space, the allocation to Swedish paper was boosted by 12 points, France by 7 points, Canada by 5 points, the U.K. by 3 points, and Italy by 1 point. Allocation to New Zealand bonds was decreased by 6 points and U.S. Treasurys by 1 point. Chart 2Portfolio Total Returns Table 1Model Weights (As Of November 24, 2016) Currency Allocation Local currency-based indicators drive the construction of our model. As such, the performance of the model's portfolio should be compared with the local-currency global equity benchmark. The decision to hedge currency exposure should be made at the client's discretion, though from time to time, we do provide our recommendations. The dollar appreciated significantly in November following the U.S. presidential election. Our Dollar Capitulation Index spiked and is currently at levels that suggest the rally in the broad trade-weighted dollar could pause (Chart 3). Chart 3U.S. Trade-Weighted Dollar* And Capitulation Capital Market Indicators The momentum indicator for commodities has moved further into overbought territory, pushing up the overall risk index. This asset class remains excluded from the portfolio (Chart 4). The deterioration in the liquidity and momentum indicators has lifted the risk index for global equities to the highest level in over 2 years. Our model cut its weighting in equities for the fourth month in a row (Chart 5). Chart 4Commodity Index And Risk Chart 5Global Stock Market And Risk The risk index for U.S. stocks increased sharply in November. With stocks reaching new highs, the model trimmed its allocation to this bourse. The markets took note of the growth-positive aspects of Trump's policies, but seem complacent about the stronger dollar, higher interest rates, and the potential for trade protectionist policies (Chart 6). The risk index for euro area equities has ticked up slightly in November. However, unlike its U.S. peers, it remains in the low-risk zone. Above-trend growth could provide support for euro area equities. (Chart 7). Chart 6U.S. Stock Market And Risk Chart 7Euro Area Stock Market And Risk The risk index for Dutch equities ticked up slightly and the model has downgraded this asset. That said, the weighting in Dutch equities remains the highest among its euro area counterparts (Chart 8). Improvements in the value and momentum measures for Latin American stocks have been largely offset by a deteriorating liquidity reading. As a result, the risk index did not decline much after the selloff. The model decreased its allocation to this asset (Chart 9). Chart 8Dutch Stock Market And Risk Chart 9Latin American Stock Market And Risk Over the course of only a few months, the risk index for bonds has swung from an extremely high risk level to the low-risk zone. Momentum has been the primary driving force behind this move and currently suggests that yields could pull back in the near term (Chart 10). The risk index for U.S. Treasurys declined significantly in November. While the model used the latest selloff to boost its allocation to bonds, it preferred to add allocation to bond markets outside of Treasurys. (Chart 11). Chart 10Global Bond Yields And Risk Chart 11U.S. Bond Yields And Risk After the rise in yields, Canadian bonds are massively oversold based on our momentum measure. The extremely low-risk reading has prompted the model to allocate to this asset (Chart 12). German bonds are oversold, but the reading on the cyclical measure has become considerably more bund-unfriendly. The model opted not to include bunds in the overall boost to its bond allocation. (Chart 13). Chart 12Canadian Bond Yields And Risk Chart 13German Bond Yields And Risk The risk reading in French bonds is more favorable than for bunds. Apart from oversold momentum, the value reading has also improved. The model increased its allocation to French bonds (Chart 14). The cyclical component of the risk index for Swedish bonds keeps moving in a bond-bearish direction. But that is completely overshadowed by extremely oversold conditions. In fact, the overall risk index for Swedish bonds is the lowest within our bond universe. Much of the increase in overall bond allocation ended up in Swedish paper (Chart 15). Chart 14French Bond Yields And Risk Chart 15Swedish Bond Yields And Risk Following sharp gains, the 13-week momentum measure for the U.S. dollar has reached levels at which some consolidation may take place. But the recovery in the 40-week rate of change measure indicates that it would probably be a pause in the dollar bull market rather than a trend change. With the December rate hike baked in, the Fed's communication about the policy next year holds the key to the path of the dollar - in addition to the fiscal policy of the next administration (Chart 16). The Japanese yen has been a major victim of the dollar rally. The 13-week momentum measure is approaching levels that halted the yen weakening trend in 2013 and 2015. However, this time around, it is not coupled with the same signal from the 40-week rate of change measure. The BoJ is sticking to its easy monetary policy, and some additional support on the fiscal front could drag the yen lower, notwithstanding a possible hiatus in the short term. Short term the yen could benefit from an EM pullback (Chart 17). After the latest bout of depreciation, the euro seems poised for another attempt to break below 1.05. The 13-week and 40-week momentum measures do not preclude this from happening. However, it would probably take the ECB to reaffirm its dovish message to push EUR/USD technical indicators into more oversold territory (Chart 18). Chart 16U.S. Trade-Weighted Dollar* Chart 17Yen Chart 18Euro Miroslav Aradski, Senior Analyst miroslava@bcaresearch.com

Highlights Sweden Yield Curve: The drivers behind our Sweden 5-year/10-year curve flattener trade - a Riksbank stance that appeared too dovish, a cautious global risk landscape and the strength of Sweden's economic expansion - have become less compelling. We advocate closing that trade, at a profit of +84bps. Swedish Rates: The Riksbank rate liftoff will start earlier than priced in the market. We recommend entering a new trade, paying the 18-month Sweden Overnight Index Swap rate. NZ Rates: New Zealand's inflation will surprise to the upside in 2017 and put upward pressure on short-term interest rates. To position for this, pay 12-month rates on the New Zealand Overnight Index Swap curve. Korea vs. Japan: The rationale behind our recommended trade favoring 5-year Korean government debt versus 5-year Japanese government bonds has changed. We are closing the trade at a profit of +260bps. Feature The surprising U.S. election victory of President-elect Trump, on a policy platform that is both reflationary and protectionist, has shaken up the global macro landscape. The shock has been even more acute for small, open and export-oriented economies like Sweden, New Zealand and Korea. This triggers a necessary re-assessment of our positions. In this Weekly Report, we revisit three previously recommended trades included in our "Overlay Trades Portfolio" that are most exposed to the changing global backdrop. Sweden: Closing Our Flattener Trade... Last year, we were of the view that the Riksbank would shift to a more hawkish policy stance during 2016.1 Fast forward to today, and this has not panned out as we expected with the Riksbank persistently sticking with its dovish bias. We are no longer comfortable facing the stiff resolve of the Riksbank and, therefore, we are closing our recommended Swedish 5-year/10-year yield curve flattener trade (Chart 1). Chart 1Closing Our Sweden Flattener Chart 2The Dovish Rhetoric Is Paying Off The message has been clear - Sweden's central bank will stay accommodative as long as it takes to get inflation back on a sustainable upward trajectory. In a unified fashion, the most senior Riksbank officials have communicated the following: 2 Monetary policy is set to escape low inflation as fast as possible. Currency intervention to weaken the Krona cannot be ruled out. There is no problem in extending the Riksbank's asset purchase program, since it has worked well so far in keeping government bond yields at accommodative levels and helping depress the Krona. The exchange rate is now notably weaker throughout the entire Riksbank forecast period than previously assumed, but this has not been sufficient to counteract the lower underlying inflationary pressures in Sweden.3 In a nutshell, the Riksbank wants to bring about higher inflation through a depreciation of the currency. The strategy has started to work of late (Chart 2). A very accommodative monetary policy, combined with rising inflation pressures from a cheapening Krona, now points to a prolonged period of low real policy rates that will keep the Swedish yield curve under steepening pressure. Aside from the monetary policy rhetoric, the global political landscape is no longer favorable for a yield curve flattening trade either, even in Sweden. In June, when Brexit surprised the planet, our Sweden flattener trade performed well, as global uncertainty spiked and a risk-off environment supported lower longer-term bond yields. Donald Trump's upset election earlier this month had the exact opposite effect, however, triggering a massive curve steepening in most bond markets, including Sweden (Chart 3).4 Going forward, if the effects of Trump's proposed policies - such as a decent fiscal impulse and protectionist trade measures - linger, as we expect, a Swedish flattener will likely underperform. Global bond markets will continue to be heavily influenced by a steepening U.S. Treasury curve. Moreover, our optimism on Swedish growth has dimmed recently, with certain parts of the economy slowing down. At the business level, weakening new orders data signal lower industrial production growth ahead. In addition, exporter order books have rolled over, resulting in a build-up of inventories (Chart 4). Chart 3Same Populism, Different Outcome Chart 4Dimming Optimism In turn, Swedish households are feeling the pinch. Slower wages and employment growth are reducing consumption. Growth in retail sales and car registrations has decelerated and private bankruptcies have started to rise (Chart 5). Since household consumption is a vital part of Sweden's economy, the recent robust expansion will moderate in the next few quarters. Consequently, the gap between the Riksbank's dovish monetary stance and the economic backdrop can no longer be deemed unsustainable, as we have described it in the past. This reality has been well depicted in the latest Riksbank Monetary Policy Report (MPR), where 2016 GDP growth is now forecasted to be only 1.8%. This seems reasonable considering the decline in actual demand - observable through the slowing growth of Swedish imports - and the Riksbank's own forward-looking economic activity index (Chart 6). The Riksbank is now projecting only a modest growth rebound to 2.5% in 2017, but this implies a meaningful reacceleration in growth to an above-trend pace later on in the year. Chart 5Swedish Households: Feeling The Pinch Chart 6Swedish GDP Growth Will Slow Further Bottom Line: The drivers behind our Sweden 5-year/10-year curve flattener trade - a Riksbank stance that appeared too dovish, a cautious global risk landscape and the strength of Sweden's economic expansion - have become less compelling. We advocate closing that trade, at a profit of +84bps. ...And Placing A New Bet On Rising Swedish Inflation Currently, the Swedish Overnight Index Swap (OIS) curve is expecting monetary policy stability in the first half of next year, pricing in only a 10% probability of a rate cut and a mere 2% chance of a rate hike by July 2017. Of the two, a rate hike is most likely, in our view, given the growing risks of upside inflation surprises stemming from a weaker Krona and rising energy prices. With such a low probability of a hike currently priced into the curve, the risk/reward potential for a trade is compelling. Today, we enter into a new position: paying 18-month Swedish OIS rates (Chart 7). Chart 7Pay 18-Month Sweden OIS Rates Chart 8Energy Prices Are Crucial For Swedish Inflation In the Riksbank's October MPR, the first rate increase was pushed forward from the second quarter of 2017 to the first quarter of 2018.5 At that point, the central bank's forecast becomes slightly lower than the interest rate expectation now priced in the OIS market. Even with our more sober view of the Swedish economy, the next rate hike is now expected to occur too far into the future. It will likely happen beforehand as upside surprises on inflation will force the Riksbank to begin tightening sooner than planned. Sweden's inflation path is mainly influenced by two factors: the Krona and energy prices. If the Krona's weakness accelerates and energy prices resume their uptrend, inflation will jump. In turn, if inflation reaches its target earlier, the central bank will start normalizing rates sooner than expected. Chart 9Can Sweden Still Overheat? As stated above, the Riksbank members' dovish rhetoric has been successful in pushing the Krona lower. Much to our astonishment, they seem ready to continue moving in that direction, despite the potential negative spillovers. The bubbly Swedish housing market - fueled by low interest rates and lacking the macro-prudential measures to stop its expansion - does not appear to be a major concern of the Riskbank for the time being. In addition to the exchange rate, the path of energy prices is crucial for inflation; it represents the bulk of the deflationary pressure over the last few years (Chart 8). Although this situation has changed recently, with a positive contribution to inflation in the last four months, energy prices will need to appreciate again to keep consumer price advances on track. This is likely to happen. Our Commodity strategists believe that the markets are understating the odds of Brent exceeding $50/bbl by the end of this year, given their expectation that Saudi Arabia and Russia will announce production cuts of 500k b/d each at the OPEC meeting scheduled for November 30th in Vienna.6 If such meaningful production cuts come to fruition, energy prices will rise and add to Sweden's inflationary pressure. Moreover, the bigger structural picture in Sweden remains very inflationary, despite the short term cyclical weakness stated earlier. GDP, employment and hours worked are all expanding faster than the Riksbank's assessment of the long-run trend growth rates. Plus, according to the Economic Tendency Survey, companies are reporting labor shortages in all major business sectors.7 In sum, with resource utilization already stretched, keeping real interest rates low for longer can only prolong the steadfast Swedish credit expansion, potentially overheating the economy and creating additional inflation surprises (Chart 9). This will set the stage for an eventual shift by the Riksbank to a more hawkish posture. Bottom Line: The Riksbank rate liftoff will start earlier than priced in the market. We recommend entering a new trade, paying the 18-month Sweden Overnight Index Swap rate. New Zealand: Inflation To Re-Surface Here, As Well Chart 10Global Output Gaps Have Narrowed On November 9th, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) cut its overnight rate to 1.75% and signaled that it would probably be on hold for the foreseeable future. From here, things could go both ways; another rate cut is not inconceivable in 2017. Yet the market is expecting a stable rate backdrop, pricing in only a 5% chance of a rate cut and a 6% probability of a rate hike by June 2017. Such an "undecided" market is not surprising. On one hand, inflation remains below target. On the other hand, the economy has been humming along with no signs of any major slowdown on the horizon. In our view, monetary policy risks are tilted towards rate hikes. Similar to Sweden's case, inflation has the potential to surprise on the upside in 2017. Several factors have contributed to the current stubbornly low inflation environment. However, going forward, those forces will abate and push inflation and, eventually, short term interest rates higher. 1.A more inflationary global backdrop New Zealand's low inflation problem comes from the tradable components. Simply put, because of the global deflationary environment of the last few years, and because of the Kiwi's strength, New Zealand has imported lower prices from abroad. But this phenomenon will move in the other direction going forward. The global inflationary backdrop has slowly changed. As noted by our Chief Global Investment Strategist, Peter Berezin, spare capacity within the developed economies has shrunk substantially over the last few years (Chart 10).8 Unemployment rates are lower than the non-accelerating inflation rates of unemployment (NAIRU) in most major countries, with the exception of France and Italy. Looking ahead, the current cyclical upswing in global growth, coming at a time of narrowing output gaps and increasing supply-side constraints, will put upward pressure on global inflation. This will eventually trigger a rise in New Zealand's import price inflation, although the impact might not be felt in the very short term. 2.A continued boost from China Closer to home for New Zealand, China's backdrop has become less deflationary. As we pointed out in a recent Special Report, China has turned into a cyclical tailwind for the global economy, putting upward pressure on inflation and bond yields in the near-term.9 Our "GFIS China Check List", composed of our favored indicators, highlights that China is in the expansionary phase of its economic cycle (Table 1). Table 1The GFIS China Checklist Most striking is that Chinese final goods producer prices have turned positive. This could prove to be a major development for New Zealand tradable goods prices, if it lasts; the correlation between Chinese PPI inflation and the tradable goods contribution to New Zealand's headline CPI has historically been elevated (Chart 11). 3.A weaker kiwi dollar Donald Trump's U.S. election victory could help raise New Zealand inflation through the exchange rate. If his ambitious fiscal plan and protectionist inclinations gain traction, the Fed might have to raise rates more aggressively than expected, putting upward pressure on the U.S. dollar. Under such a scenario, the Kiwi will re-price lower, potentially reversing the prior dampening effect on import prices from a strengthening currency. This would relieve policymakers on the RBNZ, who have consistently pointed to the currency's strength as the main reason inflation has missed the target (Chart 12). Chart 11China: A New Tailwind For Prices Chart 12The Kiwi Is Problematic 4.A stronger dairy sector Over the past couple of years, the Achilles heel for New Zealand has been its dairy sector, with plunging prices eroding confidence throughout the economy. Fortunately, this bad predicament is about to change as well. The exogenous factors depressing dairy prices are abating and prices are surging anew (Chart 13). The Global Dairy Trade price index has advanced in seven out of the last eight dairy auctions.10 If this impulse is prolonged, both New Zealand's export prices and domestic wages will begin to reflate. 5.A reversal of migration inflows The massive flow of migration into New Zealand since 2013 has been the main factor capping wage growth by increasing the supply of labor (Chart 14). The bulk of this inflow has been composed of young workers, aged between 15 & 29 years old.11 It is unclear if this migration will become permanent or prove to be transitory. Chart 13NZ Dairy Prices Have Rebounded Chart 14NZ Inward Migration To Stabilize... Much of this inflow can be explained by the weakness in the Australian economy, which has triggered migration back into New Zealand from those who left for work in Australia. As such, if the Aussie economy improves, the migration flow could conceivably reverse, at least to some extent. As a result, the domestic supply of workers would recede and the invisible ceiling on New Zealand wages would progressively disappear. This scenario is highly plausible. The latest surge in Australia's terms of trade could be an early signal of a commodity sector revival. Much of this is due to China's growth upturn this year. However, the wave of optimism towards a potential fiscal stimulus in the U.S. - especially through longer-term infrastructure projects - is a possible boost to demand that could support higher global commodity prices higher over the next few years.12 If this proves correct, New Zealand migration towards Australia could be renewed, shrinking the domestic pool of skilled labor, and pushing wages higher (Chart 15). An unwind of these disinflationary forces would coincide with improving cyclical growth prospects. A mix of strong credit growth, decent construction sector activity and robust corporate earnings should support job creation and wages in the short term (Chart 16). In this environment, consumption will accelerate. Since the output gap is already closed, faster spending will cause inflationary pressures to build (Chart 17). Chart 15...If Australian Mining Revives Chart 16An Inflationary Backdrop Chart 17Inflation Surprises Ahead Traders can benefit from a turnaround in New Zealand inflation prospects by playing the Overnight Index Swap market. Since April 12th of this year, we have recommended payer positions in 6-month New Zealand Overnight Index Swap (OIS) rates.13 This trade has not worked as planned, due to the stubbornly low trend of New Zealand inflation, and today we are closing that trade recommendation at a loss of -30bps. The market is currently pricing in a 23% chance of a rate hike by the September 28, 2017 RBNZ meeting. Due to the inflation risks cited above, the probability should be higher than that, in our view. As such, we are entering a 12-month OIS payer. This trade offers modest downside risk versus for a decent potential gain, i.e. a risk/reward ratio of about 3:1. Bottom Line: New Zealand's inflation will surprise to the upside in 2017 and put upward pressure on short-term interest rates. To position for this, pay 12-month rates on the New Zealand Overnight Index Swap curve. Closing Our Japan/Korea Relative Value Trade This week, we are unwinding our Japan/Korea relative value trade, where we were long 5-year Korean government bonds versus 5-year Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) on a currency-unhedged basis. While the currency leg did allow for a profitable trade, the Korea/Japan yield differential widened by +52bps. Several unpredictable events have negatively impacted Korean bonds since the trade was initiated. Chart 18Political Scandal = Higher Risk Premium Chart 19Trump: Catastrophic For Korean Bonds Too First, a scandal surrounding the Korean president, a.k.a. Choi-Gate, has erupted. As more details of the affair have been revealed, the president's approval rating has plunged - standing now at 5% - and the Government has become dysfunctional (Chart 18). In the near future, the geopolitical risks surrounding Korean assets should remain elevated as the prosecutors will continue the process of investigating the president and her associates; the risk premium on Korean bond yields might increase further. Chart 20The Korea 5-Year Bond Model Second, Trump's victory has been catastrophic for bond markets across the globe, including those related to open and export-oriented economies linked to the emerging markets, like Korea (Chart 19). Yet the impact on JGBs has been more contained since the Bank of Japan (BoJ) moved to a yield curve targeting framework back in September. The BoJ surprised many by adopting that policy of anchoring longer-term JGB yields. This has substantially reduced the volatility of JGBs, even during the recent backup in global yields. In turn, this has lowered the payoff potential of shorting JGBs, both in absolute terms and versus Korean bonds. Finally, the appeal of our Korea vs Japan trade has decreased from a valuation perspective. A simple model that we have developed for the Korean 5-year government bond yield now points towards rising yields in 2017 (Chart 20).14 With all of these factors now working against our trade, we are choosing to close it out. The trade has generated a profit from the currency exposure, which we decided not to hedge. However, when events move against the original reasons for putting on a trade, the prudent strategy is to unwind that position and look for other opportunities. Bottom Line: The rationale behind our recommended trade favoring 5-year Korean government debt versus 5-year Japanese government bonds has changed. We are closing the trade at a profit of +260bps. Jean-Laurent Gagnon, Editor/Strategist jeang@bcaresearch.com Robert Robis, Senior Vice President Global Fixed Income Strategy rrobis@bcaresearch.com Ray Park, Research Analyst ray@bcaresearch.com 1 Please see BCA Global Fixed Income Strategy Special Report, "Riksbank: Close To An Inflection Point", dated September 22, 2015, available at gfis.bcaresearch.com 2 Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. NSN OG2NHA6JIJUO GO. NSN OGD9GRSYF01S GO. NSN OGFQO26S972O GO 3 http://www.riksbank.se/Documents/Protokoll/Penningpolitiskt/2016/pro_penningpolitiskt_161026_eng.pdf 4 Please see BCA Geopolitical Strategy Special Report, "U.S. Election: Outcomes & Investment Implications", dated November 9, 2016, available at gps.bcaresearch.com 5 For details, please see http://www.riksbank.se/en/Press-and-published/Published-from-the-Riksbank/Monetary-policy/Monetary-Policy-Report/ 6 Please see BCA Commodity & Energy Strategy Weekly Report, "Raising The Odds Of A KSA-Russia Oil-Production Cut", dated November 3, 2016, available at ces.bcaresearch.com 7 Private services, retail trade, construction and manufacturing 8 Please see BCA Global Investment Strategy Weekly Report, "Slack Around The World", dated November 4, 2016, available at gis.bcaresearch.com 9 Please see BCA Global Fixed Income Strategy Special Report, "How To Assess The 'China Factor' For Global Bonds", dated November 8, 2016, available at gfis.bcaresearch.com 10 https://www.globaldairytrade.info/en/product-results/ 11 For details, please see "Understanding low inflation in New Zealand", Dr, John McDermott, October 11, 2016 available at http://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news/2016/10/understanding-low-inflation-in-new-zealand 12 Please see BCA Geopolitical Strategy Special Report, "U.S. Election: Outcomes & Investment Implications", dated November 9, 2017, available at gps.bcaresearch.com 13 Please see BCA Global Fixed Income Strategy Special Report, "New Zealand: More Than Just Dairy", dated April 12, 2016, available at gfis.bcaresearch.com 14 This model is based upon a regression of Korean yields on U.S. 5-year treasury yield, Korean Trade-weighted currency, Brent crude price in USD, and Korea's headline CPI. Forecasts are based on financial market futures data and the ministry of finance's inflation forecast. Recommendations Duration Regional Allocation Spread Product Tactical Trades Yields & Returns Global Bond Yields Historical Returns

Highlights The blistering dollar rally has mimicked the selloff in U.S. and global bonds. The dollar and bonds may have gotten ahead of themselves. A short-term reversal or a pause in the recent trend is becoming our base-case scenario for the rest of the year. If a dollar correction materializes, USD/CNY will also retreat, temporarily diminishing pressures on EM currencies. The yen weakness illustrates the importance of the September policy change by the BoJ. AUD/SEK is a short. We are re-introducing our back sections, but now covering all the G10 currencies. Feature In recent weeks, we have developed the view that a Trump victory would embolden our cyclically bullish stance on the dollar. We re-iterated this sentiment last week.1 Since then, we have received many questions about the very short-term outlook for FX markets. Our view is that from now to the end of the year, the dollar is likely to stabilize and may even weaken somewhat. This should create a buying opportunity for investors that have missed the dollar rocket. It's All About Bonds The dollar rally since Trump's election has been so torrid that the broad trade-weighted dollar has made new highs. DXY is now flirting with the top of the trading range established since March 2015 (Chart I-1). If the dollar can significantly punch above this resistance, or EUR/USD falls below 1.055, another violent dollar rally could ensue. While we do ultimately expect such a move to materialize, we do not expect it to happen just yet. The main reason for our skepticism is the bond market. Much of the appreciation in the dollar has been explained by the sharp rally in U.S. bonds, which has caused interest rates differentials to move massively in favor of the greenback (Chart I-2). For DXY to meaningfully punch above 100, bonds have to sell-off further. Chart I-1The Return Of The King Chart I-2Dollar And Bond Yields: Same Fight Our U.S. Bond Strategy service remains cyclically underweight duration, but the short-term outlook is murky. The move in bonds has been extremely one-sided. The bond market's behavior displays the hallmark of groupthink, where long-term and short-term traders have uniformly been selling Treasurys. The fractal dimension for bonds, a measure of groupthink developed by Dhaval Joshi, our European Chief Strategist, rests at 1.25, a level at which a trend reversal - even if a temporary one - tends to emerge (Chart I-3).2 Chart I-3Groupthink In The Bond Market Additionally, our composite sentiment indicator, based on the 13-week rate of change of prices, investor sentiment, and net speculative positions, is deeply oversold, highlighting the risk of a backup in prices (Chart I-4). Fundamentals also warrant a careful stance. A December Fed hike is fully priced in, and the expected Fed funds rates 12-months from now is already near the levels hit before the Fed raised rates in 2015 (Chart I-5). A catalyst is now needed to push rate expectations materially higher. Chart I-4Bond Sentimen##br##t Is Depressed Chart I-5Interest Rates Priced In A Lot##br## In A Short Time Span However, the recent backup in yields and the dollar has massively hit EM currencies (Chart I-6). EM currencies are falling because investors are taking funds out of these economies. Consequently, EM liquidity and financial conditions are tightening, a dark omen for economic activity in that space (Chart I-7). The more than 10% fall in gold prices since July 8, also paints a picture of deteriorating global liquidity conditions. Chart I-6Bond Yields Are Hurting##br## EM Financial Conditions Chart I-7A Dark ##br##Omen An EM correction may compel the Fed to worry about the short-term outlook. This development, along with the tightening in U.S. financial conditions resulting from the 7% back up in the broad trade-weighted dollar and 77 basis points in bond yields since mid-August, heighten the risk of a correction in risk assets. The Fed is aware of this and the market knows it. Chart I-8CPI Swaps Can Rebound More Additionally, U.S. 5y/5y forward CPI swaps have backed up 60 basis points from their lows to 2.4%, but they still remain below their historical norm of 2.5% to 3.3% (Chart I-8). The Fed probably wants to see them closer to these levels before aggressively ramping up its rhetoric and "dot-plot" forecasts. A Trump presidency will result in a large dose of fiscal stimulus, but we still have little clarity regarding the size of any packages, their composition, or their timing. Neither does the Fed. If there was any clarity, the Fed would likely be in a position to increase its "dot-plot" even without inflation expectations being in their normal range. Additionally, this week, the Bank of Japan put actions behind its words and announced an unlimited bond buying program at fixed prices, a process that should cap the upside on this anchor for global yields. Thus, in the very near term, the burden of proof is now elevated for rates to rise higher without the Fed's rhetoric becoming clearly more hawkish. While we expect this outcome to ultimately materialize, the next few weeks are not when we see it happening. This implies that the dollar's rip-roaring rally is likely to take a pause and even retrace some of its exceptional gains. However, a key risk remains, and that is China. Since Trump's victory, the Chinese RMB has accelerated its downward path, depreciating 1.7% in nine days. This move reflects the fear that Trump will impose large tariffs on Chinese-made goods. In the process, the fall in the yuan has dragged Asian currencies lower than the DXY appreciation would have warranted (Chart I-9). If these moves were to continue, EM currencies, the yen, and the AUD would fall further even without U.S. bond yields rising much. In the short-term this remains more a risk rather than a base-line scenario. While USD/CNY has rallied, the yuan has been stable relative to the currency basket targeted by the PBoC (Chart I-10). Therefore, if our view that the U.S. bond sell-off pauses temporarily is correct, the USD/CNY rally will also take a breather. Chart I-9Tariff Risk Weighing On Asian Forex Chart I-10Mind The Gap! The currencies most likely to benefit from any dollar bull-market pause are JPY, SEK, and EUR as they have become hyper-sensitive to U.S. bond yields. EM currencies too could see a temporary rally, especially if USD/CNY stops appreciating in line with the DXY. Bottom Line: The dollar bull market is intact. However, the tactical outlook points toward a pause in the greenback's upswing. In light of the fast repricing of the market's expectations for Fed policy, and the lack of clarity regarding Trump's plans, bond yields and interest-rate expectations have gotten ahead of themselves. Even the rally in USD/CNY, which has contributed to devaluation pressures on other Asian currencies, could pause if DXY stops rallying for a period of time. Why is the Yen So Weak? We have articulated a very bearish view on the yen since September 23.3 To our way of thinking, the Bank of Japan pegging 10-year JGB yields to 0% until Japanese inflation significantly overshoots 2% was a sea-change. However, we have been surprised by the violence of the recent yen sell-off. After all, wouldn't a selloff in EM currencies support the yen? A few factors have been at play. First, Japanese preliminary Q3 GDP numbers have come in at 2.2% on a year-on-year basis, handily beating expectations of 0.9%. Moreover, industrial production has picked up, and our model forecasts further acceleration, despite the recent strength in the yen (Chart I-11). With the employment market being tight - the unemployment rate stands at 3.1% and the active-job-openings-to-applicants ratio is at a 25-year high - this raises the risk that inflation begins to emerge. With nominal bond yields pegged at zero, this would weigh on Japanese real rates, and thus the yen, which continues to closely correlate with Japanese real rates differentials. Second, the recent global sell off in bonds has been an additional weight on the yen. In our communications with clients, we are often reminded how USD/JPY and bond yields are essentially one and the same, a heuristic borne by the facts (Chart I-12). Chart I-11Japanese IP Is ##br##Picking Up Chart I-12USD/JPY And Bond Yields ##br##Are One And The Same But right now, there is more to the relationship with bond yields than in previous episodes. The September promise of a cap on 10-year JGB yields is causing Japanese yield differentials to stand at mid-2015 levels, despite global yields being lower than they were then (Chart I-13). Also, the sell-off in global bonds has caused 10-year JGB yields to move slightly above 0%. However, having announced unlimited bond purchases at capped yields, the BoJ is about to begin purchasing JGBs to prevent yields from punching above 0% meaningfully. This will result in growing Japanese liquidity, compounding already existing JPY weaknesses. Chart I-13The BoJ Policy In Action Finally, the government is talking up fiscal stimulus. The third revision of the second supplementary budget has been passed, and the executive is already pushing for a third supplementary budget. Additionally, both Abe and Kuroda are ramping up their rhetoric regarding next year's wage negotiations, highlighting the growing risk that the government will implement wage policies in 2017.4 Short-term risks are skewed toward a yen rebound. When the BoJ announced its new policy in September, USD/JPY was 7% undervalued according to our short-term model. This is not the case anymore. Also, if global bond yields stop their ascension until year end, the BoJ will not purchase any bonds. Moreover, falling global bond yields will push Japanese rate differentials in favor of the yen, supporting the currency further. Finally, a continuation of EM stresses could prompt Japanese investors to repatriate funds into the country, putting upward pressures on the yen. Bottom Line: The extraordinary weakness in the yen reflects the improvement in Japanese economic activity. Also, the change in monetary policy executed earlier this year is limiting the upside for JGB yields, and the BoJ is now setting up an unlimited purchase program to back its words. However, a short term pull-back in USD/JPY grows increasingly likely if the global bond implosion takes a breather. Going Short AUD/SEK Shorting AUD/SEK here makes sense. To begin with, AUD/SEK is trading 16% above its long-term fair value as well as 5.2% above its short-term equilibrium (Chart I-14). Additionally, the current account differential is 9.4% of GDP in favor of Sweden. In terms of the economy, the Swedish consumer is displaying stronger resilience than the Australian one, powered by an outperforming Swedish labor market (Chart I-15). Additionally, Swedish house prices are growing 5% faster than in Australia. With Swedish consumer confidence outperforming that of Australia, and Swedish household credit overtaking Australian household credit growth, inflationary forces could emerge, resulting in a tightening of Swedish policymakers' rhetoric relative to Australia. On this front, the recent pick up in Swedish inflation is telling. Having rebounded to 1.2% annually, Swedish headline CPI is at a four-and-a-half-year high, suggesting that the emergency measures put in place by the Riksbank are beginning to outlive their usefulness. Meanwhile, Australia is moving away from its easing bias. But a move toward less accommodation is still not in the cards, especially as employment growth underperformed and total hours worked contracted at a 1% annual pace. Financial market dynamics also favor a weaker AUD/SEK. This cross has moved much ahead of nominal interest rate differentials, and real-interest-rate differentials have moved in the opposite direction, pointing to a lower AUD/SEK. Additionally, the Swedish broad market as well as financial equities have been outperforming Australian stocks. This suggests that Swedish financial conditions are too easy relative to Australia. Finally, technicals point to a negative short-term outlook for this cross. AUD/SEK is massively overbought on a 52-week-rate-of-change measure. On a shorter-term basis, the MACD indicates an overbought condition and is forming a negative divergence with prices, exactly as the stochastic indicator has broken down (Chart I-16). Chart I-14Poor Risk/Reward Tradeoff ##br##For Holding AUD/SEK Chart I-15The Swedish Labor ##br##Market Is On Fire Chart I-16AUD/SEK:##br## Poised For A Shakeout Bottom Line: The outlook for AUD/SEK is problematic. This cross is pricey and the Swedish consumer is outperforming that of Australia. This is happening exactly as the Riksbank may begin moving away from its hyper-accommodative stance, as inflation is hitting four-and-a-half year highs. Finally, financial market dynamics and currency technicals are flagging a short in this cross. Mathieu Savary, Vice President Foreign Exchange Strategy mathieu@bcaresearch.com 1 Please see Foreign Exchange Strategy Weekly Report, "Raeganomics 2.0?", dated November 11, available at fes.bcaresearch.com 2 Please see European Investment Strategy Special Report, "Fractals, Liquidity & A Trading Model", dated December 11, 2014, available at eis.bcaresearch.com 3 Please see Foreign Exchange Strategy Weekly Report, "How Do You Say "Whatever It Takes" In Japanese?", dated September 23, 2016 available at fes.bcaresearch.com 4 Ibid. Currencies U.S. Dollar Chart II-1USD Technicals 1 Chart II-2USD Technicals 2 Last week, equities and the dollar rallied as Trump's unexpected victory was taken as a positive for the U.S. economy in the hopes of promised fiscal stimulus. Both the market and Fed officials therefore remain tenacious on the prospects of a 25bps hike in December, with a 98% probability currently priced in. In a speech on Thursday, Yellen confirmed the gradual normalization of policy and acknowledged the strength of the U.S. labor market. Initial jobless claims declined to 235,000 from 254,000 and continuing jobless claims declined to 1.977 million from 2.043 million. This has further solidified our bullish stance on the dollar. On a technical basis, the DXY Index has hit a key resistance level of 100, which suggests a temporary halt to last week's surge. However, longer-term momentum is indicating a possible break-out from the key 100 level in the near future. Report Links: Reaganomics 2.0? - November 11, 2016 When You Come To A Fork In The Road, Take It - November 4, 2016 USD, JPY, AUD: Where Do We Stand - October 28, 2016 The Euro Chart II-3EUR Technicals 1 Chart II-4EUR Technicals 2 The Euro continues to mirror the U.S. Dollar, losing more than 3% in a week since the U.S. Presidential Election. This move seems to be a function of the election only, as European data has come out reasonably strong this week: Economic sentiment from the ZEW Survey shot up to 15.8, beating expectations, while current conditions declined to 58.8 from 59.5. The trade balance increased by €8.2bn to €26.5bn. European GDP growth remains solid at 1.6%. Data points to EUR strength, so the Euro should remain somewhat neutral on a trade-weighted basis as its economy remains strong. Monetary policy divergence and technicals, however, should continue to weigh on EUR/USD in the short term, suggesting that cross-currency plays are the best way to capture any Euro strength. Report Links: When You Come To A Fork In The Road, Take It - November 4, 2016 Relative Pressures And Monetary Divergences - October 21, 2016 The Pound Falls To The Conquering Dollar - October 14, 2016 The Yen Chart II-5JPY Technicals 1 Chart II-6JPY Technicals 2 The yen has been one of the worst performing currencies in the G10 following Trump's election, with USD/JPY appreciating by about 5%. After this down-leg, we will not be surprised if the yen recovers some ground in the short-term. USD/JPY has already reached overbought technical levels and the sell-off in EM caused by the rising dollar may eventually trigger a risk-off period from which the yen will benefit. However, past the short term, we continue to be yen bears. Although the policies that the BoJ implemented in September did not seem as radical back then, a cap on Japanese 10-year rates takes a whole different meaning for the yen in the recent environment where interest rates are rising in the U.S, since it exerts considerable pressure on Japanese real rates vis-à-vis the rest of the world. Report Links: When You Come To A Fork In The Road, Take It - November 4, 2016 USD, JPY, AUD: Where Do We Stand - October 28, 2016 The Pound Falls To The Conquering Dollar - October 14, 2016 British Pound Chart II-7GBP Technicals 1 Chart II-8GBP Technicals 2 An interesting trend has caught our attention: the British economy continues to be very resilient, beating not only market expectations but also projections by the BoE. Recent October data confirms this view: Retail sales and retail sales ex-fuel grew at an annual rate of 7.4% and 7.6% respectively, blowing past expectations. Additionally Markit Services PMI was 54.5, also beating expectations. This is particularly surprising given that the service sector is likely getting very little support from the weak pound. We are reticent to be bullish on the pound, at least on the short term, given that political risks continue to dominate the movements of this currency. Nevertheless, the cable is very cheap from a valuation standpoint, and if the British economy continues to beat expectations, the pound could become an attractive buy. Report Links: The Pound Falls To The Conquering Dollar - October 14, 2016 The Dollar: The Great Redistributor - October 7, 2016 Long-Term FX Valuation Models: Updates And New Coverages - September 30, 2016 Australian Dollar Chart II-9AUD Technicals 1 Chart II-10AUD Technicals 2 The RBA left its cash rate unchanged at 1.5% at their November meeting, and clarified that their easing cycle has come to an end. Recent data, however, is showing signs of weakness in the Australian economy: the Westpac Consumer Confidence Index came in last week at -1.1%; wage pressures remain subdued at 1.9% yoy in Q3 from 2.1% in Q2; employment change was weaker than expected at 9,800 with the unemployment rate unchanged at 5.6% in October. Labor market slack remains a fundamental concern for the Australian economy, something the RBA also pointed out in their November statement. Inflationary pressures, if any, will likely emanate only from commodity prices, for which the outlook remains questionable due to a rising USD. Deteriorating consumer confidence and continued labor market slack will translate into deflationary tendencies, which will cap rates and add downward pressure on the AUD. Report Links: When You Come To A Fork In The Road, Take It - November 4, 2016 USD, JPY, AUD: Where Do We Stand - October 28, 2016 The Pound Falls To The Conquering Dollar - October 14, 2016 New Zealand Dollar Chart II-11NZD Technicals 1 Chart II-12NZD Technicals 2 In line with expectations, The RBNZ cut rates by 25 basis points to 1.75% at its latest policy meeting. Shortly after, a speech by Governor Wheeler lifted the NZD, as he appeared to signal that the RBNZ might be done easing by stating that "at this stage we think that we won't need another cut". We are unfazed by this change of rhetoric, and continue to be bearish on the kiwi. The NZD has formed a head-and-shoulders pattern which, along with fading momentum, foretells a downside leg for this antipodean currency. Moreover, a sell-off in Asian currencies and deteriorating financial conditions in Emerging markets following Trump's election should put further downward pressure on the kiwi, given that the NZD is the most sensitive currency to Asian spreads in the G10. Report Links: Long-Term FX Valuation Models: Updates And New Coverages - September 30, 2016 Global Perspective On Currencies: A PCA Approach For The FX Market - September 16, 2016 The Fed is Trapped Under Ice - September 9, 2016 Canadian Dollar Chart II-13CAD Technicals 1 Chart II-14CAD Technicals 2 Recent data points south for CAD: The merchandise trade deficit increased to CAD 4.1bn in September, with imports rising 4.7% to a record CAD 47.6 bn, and exports only up 0.1% to CAD 43.5 bn. The housing market continues to display warning signs as housing starts decreased in October to 192,900 and building permits declined by 7% in September from August, showing signs of supply decreases and rising prices. Although the labor market seems to be picking up, with net change in employment increasing by 43,900 and the participation rate at 65.8%, the setback in growth from the commodity slump and the Q2 Alberta wildfires will keep the BoC from raising rates. Nevertheless, we remain bullish on oil in the commodity space, and the CAD will likely display strength against the antipodeans. Report Links: When You Come To A Fork In The Road, Take It - November 4, 2016 Relative Pressures And Monetary Divergences - October 21, 2016 The Pound Falls To The Conquering Dollar - October 14, 2016 Swiss Franc Chart II-15CHF Technicals 1 Chart II-16CHF Technicals 2 The rally in USD/CHF should subside, at least in the short term. Not only has the swissie reached technical overbought levels, but the continued tightening in EM financial conditions caused by the rising dollar increased the probability of a risk off period where the CHF would rally. EUR/CHF on the other hand is likely to have limited downside from here on. Since August 2015, this cross had traded within a tight range of 1.075 to 1.110, breaking down only after the Brexit vote, when all risk-off assets rallied. However it has recently broken down again, an unwelcomed development for the SNB, who will likely intervene in the currency market in order to keep a rising franc from adding additional deflationary pressures to the Swiss economy. Report Links: Long-Term FX Valuation Models: Updates And New Coverages - September 30, 2016 Global Perspective On Currencies: A PCA Approach For The FX Market - September 16, 2016 Clashing Forces - July 29, 2016 Norwegian Krone Chart II-17NOK Technicals 1 Chart II-18NOK Technicals 2 The Krone was another victim of Trump's election, with USD/NOK rising by 4%. Although we expect that the dollar bull market will ultimately weigh on the krone, we remain positive on the outlook for this currency compared to its commodity peers. Inflation is currently at 3.7%, significantly above the Norges Bank target. Additionally house prices are rising at almost 20%, while household debt as a percentage of disposable income has surpassed the 200% mark. The Norges Bank has not overlooked this developments, as their rhetoric has recently become more hawkish. All these factors along with rebalancing energy markets, should provide strong tailwinds for the NOK, particularly against its crosses. Report Links: The Pound Falls To The Conquering Dollar - October 14, 2016 The Dollar: The Great Redistributor - October 7, 2016 Long-Term FX Valuation Models: Updates And New Coverages - September 30, 2016 Swedish Krona Chart II-19SEK Technicals 1 Chart II-20SEK Technicals 2 The Swedish economy looks strong according to recent data: Manufacturing PMI ticked up last month from 54.9 to 58.4. Industrial production increased in September by 1.5% annually. Inflation in October came in at 1.2% yoy. Inflation in the near future also looks quite upbeat, as per the uptick in 1-, 2-, and 5-year Prospera inflation expectation numbers to 1.4%, 1.7%, and 1.9% respectively. The Riksbank has therefore lifted their easing bias, which is also reflected by an increase in the 12-month market expectations of the repo rate to -0.4%. All is not perfect though. New orders decreased by 16.4% annually, indicating possible fragility in the manufacturing sector. Additional medium-term risk to the SEK will be dictated by bullish moves in the USD, as SEK remains one of the currencies with the highest sensitivity to the dollar. Report Links: The Pound Falls To The Conquering Dollar - October 14, 2016 Long-Term FX Valuation Models: Updates And New Coverages - September 30, 2016 Dazed And Confused - July 1, 2016 Trades & Forecasts Forecast Summary Core Portfolio Tactical Trades Closed Trades

The Tactical Asset Allocation model can provide investment recommendations which diverge from those outlined in our regular weekly publications. The model has a much shorter investment horizon - namely, one month - and thus attempts to capture very tactical opportunities. Meanwhile, our regular recommendations have a longer expected life, anywhere from 3-months to a year (or longer). This difference explains why the recommendations between the two publications can deviate from each other from time to time. Highlights Chart 1Model Weights In October, the model outperformed global equities in USD and local-currency terms; it also outperformed the S&P 500 in local-currency terms, while performing in line with the S&P in USD terms. For November, the model trimmed its allocation to cash and stocks and boosted its weighting in bonds (Chart 1). The model increased its weighting in French, Dutch, and Swedish stocks at the expense of the U.S., Japan, Germany, Switzerland, New Zealand, and Emerging Asia. Within the bond portfolio, allocation to New Zealand and the U.K. was increased, while the allocation to U.S., Australian and Spanish paper was reduced. The risk index for stocks deteriorated in October, while the bond risk index improved noticeably. Feature Performance In October, the recommended balanced portfolio gained 0.6% in local-currency terms, and was down 1% in U.S. dollar terms (Chart 2). This compares with a loss of 1.4% for the global equity benchmark, and a 1% loss for the S&P 500 index. Given that the underlying model is structured in local-currency terms, we generally recommend that investors hedge their positions, though we do provide recommendations from time to time. The higher allocation to EM stocks in October was timely, but the boost to bonds was a drag on the model's performance. Weights The model cut its allocation to stocks from 67% to 66% and increased its bond weighting from 21% to 26%. The allocation to cash was decreased from 12% to 8%, while commodities remain excluded from the portfolio (Table 1). The model reduced its allocation to New Zealand equities by 3 points, Emerging Asia by 2 points and U.S., Japan, Germany and Switzerland by 1 point each. Meanwhile, it increased allocation to Dutch, French and Swedish stocks by 4 points, 3 points and 1 point, respectively. In the fixed-income space, the allocation to U.K. and New Zealand paper was increased by 6 points and 5 points respectively, while allocation to Australia, Spain and the U.S. was cut by 3 points, 2 points and 1 point, respectively. Chart 2Portfolio Total Returns Table 1Model Weights (As Of October 27, 2016) Currency Allocation Local currency-based indicators drive the construction of our model. As such, the performance of the model's portfolio should be compared with the local-currency global equity benchmark. The decision to hedge currency exposure should be made at the client's discretion, though from time to time, we do provide our recommendations. The dollar appreciated in October and investors should position for additional dollar strength. Our Dollar Capitulation Index seems to be breaking out to the upside following a pattern of lower highs. Since 2008, such breakouts have been followed by a significant rally in the broad trade-weighted dollar (Chart 3). Chart 3U.S. Trade-Weighted Dollar* And Capitulation Capital Market Indicators Our model continues to exclude commodities from the portfolio. The risk index for this asset class remains at the highest level in over two years (Chart 4). For the first time since June 2014, the risk index for global equities is above the neutral line (Chart 5). The higher overall risk reflects deteriorating liquidity and momentum readings. Our model cut its weighting in equities for the third month in a row. Chart 4Commodity Index And Risk Chart 5Global Stock Market And Risk The value component of the risk index for U.S. stocks improved in October, but this was overshadowed by worsening liquidity and momentum readings. The model slightly trimmed its allocation to U.S. equities (Chart 6). Even after the latest small uptick in the risk index for Dutch equities, it remains one of the lowest among the model's universe. The allocation to this bourse was increased. (Chart 7). Chart 6U.S. Stock Market And Risk Chart 7Netherlands Stock Market And Risk The risk index for U.K. stocks declined slightly in October, but remains firmly in high-risk territory both compared to its own history and its global peers. This asset class remains excluded from the portfolio (Chart 8). The model slightly upgraded Swedish equities, despite a worsening risk index. The continued favorable liquidity backdrop remains a boon for Swedish stocks (Chart 9). Chart 8U.K. Stock Market And Risk Chart 9Swedish Stock Market And Risk After declining for four consecutive months, the overall risk index for bonds is not at extreme high-risk levels anymore. The increase in yields has helped completely unwind overbought conditions, as per our momentum indicator. The model used the latest selloff to increase its allocation to bonds (Chart 10). The risk index for U.S. Treasurys declined markedly in October, but a few other markets also feature improved risk readings. As a result, the model downgraded U.S. Treasurys (Chart 11). Chart 10Global Bond Yields And Risk Chart 11U.S. Bond Yields And Risk The selloff in New Zealand bonds has pushed the momentum indicator into oversold territory, boosting the allocation to this asset class (Chart 12). The risk index for euro area bonds remains firmly in the high-risk zone even after a notable decline. However, there are select bond markets in the common-currency area that have relatively more favorable risk readings (Chart 13). Chart 12New Zealand Bond Yields And Risk Chart 13Euro Area Bond Yields And Risk Within the euro area, Italian bonds feature a risk reading that has fallen below the neutral line. While the cyclical indicator continues to move into more bond-negative territory, it is currently being offset by the oversold reading on the momentum indicator (Chart 14). U.K. gilt yields moved up as the post-Brexit inflation backdrop became gilt-unfriendly and growth surprised on the upside. Now, with momentum moving from overbought to oversold over just a couple of months, any negative economic surprises could potentially weigh on gilt yields. The model has added this asset class to the portfolio (Chart 15). Chart 14Italian Bond Yields and Risk Chart 15U.K. Bond Yields And Risk A more hawkish Fed could push the dollar higher. The 13-week momentum measure for the USD remains above, but close to the neutral line. The recovery of the 40-week rate of change from mildly negative levels which have represented a floor since 2012 would suggest that a new leg in the dollar bull market is in the offing (Chart 16). Both the 13-week and 40-week momentum measures for the euro are below the neutral line (Chart 17). Growing monetary divergences could continue weighing on EUR/USD before the technical indicators are pushed into more oversold territory. Fears of hard Brexit knocked down the pound. The 13-week rate of change is now close to its post-Brexit lows, while the 40-week rate of change measure is at the most oversold level since 2000 (excluding the great recession). At these technical levels the pound seems overdue to find a temporary bottom (Chart 18). Chart 16U.S. Trade-Weighted Dollar* Chart 17Euro Chart 18Sterling Miroslav Aradski, Senior Analyst miroslava@bcaresearch.com

Highlights Global liquidity conditions are set to tighten in the months ahead. This could add some fire to a dollar rally, especially against EM and commodity currencies. The GBP has become the new anti-dollar, reflected by its strong sensitivity to the greenback. Financing the U.K.'s large current-account deficit is a difficult task when global liquidity tightens, the layer of political uncertainty now makes it a herculean labor. While the pound is now attractive as a long-term play, it still possesses plenty downside risk. A quick look at EUR/SEK, NOK/SEK, GBP/CAD, and AUD/JPY. Feature Global liquidity conditions have begun to tighten. This development is likely to send the dollar higher and inflict serious damage on EM and commodity currencies. The pound's weakness fits nicely into this larger story. Not only is the current political climate in the British Isles prompting investors to think twice about buying British assets, but a tightening in global liquidity makes financing the U.K. current account deficit even more onerous. This adjustment demands a cheaper GBP. Global Yields: A Step Forward, Half A Step Backward The main reason why global liquidity conditions are tightening is the recent back up in global bond yields. In normal circumstances, a 39 basis-point (bp), a 24bp, and a 16bp back-up in 10-year Treasury yields, JGB yields, and bund yields, respectively, would not represent much of a problem. But today is anything but normal. The shift in global monetary policy has been behind the back-up in yields. In aggregate, global central banks are about to begin decreasing their purchases of securities. This will not only lift interest rates on government paper, but it will also raise rates for private-sector borrowing, especially as global risk premia have been depressed by an effect known as TINA - or "There Is No Alternative" (Chart I-1). The Fed too is in the process of lifting global bond yields. For one thing, U.S. labor market slack is dissipating and we are starting to witness rising wage pressures (Chart I-2). As such, we expect the Fed to raise its policy rate in December, and to further push rates higher in 2017 and 2018. Given that only 62 basis points of hike are priced in until the end of 2019, there is scope for U.S. bond yields to rise. Chart I-1Central Banks Are Contributing##br## To Tightening Liquidity Chart I-2U.S. Labor Market Is ##br##Showing Signs Of Tightening In terms of investor sentiment, despite the recent back-up in long bond yields, investors remain surprisingly upbeat on the outlook for T-bonds (Chart I-3). This, combined with their still-poor valuations, is another reason to be worried about the outlook for U.S. and global bonds for the remainder of the year. Finally, we expect U.S. real rates to have more upside than non-U.S. rates. Why? The U.S. output gap is arguably narrower than that of Europe or Japan. Moreover, the U.S. economy has deleveraged more than the rest of the G10. With U.S households enjoying strong real income growth, strong balance sheet positions, and with banks easing their lending standards to households, U.S. private-sector debt levels can expand vis-à-vis those of other developed economies. This will lift U.S. relative real rates (Chart I-4). Chart I-3Upside For ##br##Yields Chart I-4Real Rate Differentials Should ##br##Move In The Dollar's Favor What does this all mean for currency markets? As we highlighted last week, we expect the U.S. dollar to display more upside, potentially rising by around 10% over the next 18 months. We also expect more tumultuous times to re-emerge in the EM space. Rising real rates have been a bane for EM assets in this cycle. This is because EM growth has been dependent on EM financial conditions, which themselves, have been a function of global liquidity conditions (Chart I-5). Exacerbating our fear, the recent narrowing in EM spreads has not been reflective of EM corporate health. This suggests that EM borrowing costs and financial conditions are at risk of a shakeout (Chart I-6). Chart I-5Global Liquidity Conditions Will Hurt EM Chart I-6EM Spreads Are Priced For Perfection This obviously leads us to worry about commodity currencies as well. For one, they remain tightly linked with EM equities, displaying a 0.82 correlation with that asset class since 2000. Moreover, as Chart I-7 and Table I-1 illustrate, commodity currencies are tightly linked with the dollar and EM spreads. Thus, a combo of a higher dollar and deteriorating EM financial conditions could do great harm to the AUD, the NZD, and the NOK. Interestingly, SEK and GBP are also two potential big casualties of any such development. Chart I-7The GBP Has Become The Anti-Dollar Table I-1Currency Sensitivities To Key Factors, Since 2014 That being said, these dynamics contain the seeds of their own demise. As they are deflationary shocks, EM and commodity sell-offs are likely to elicit a dovish response from global policymakers. This will limit the upside for yields, implying that any tightening in global liquidity conditions is likely to prompt another reflationary push early in 2017. Bottom Line: Global rates still have more upside from here. U.S. real rates could rise the most as the Fed is now confronted with an increasingly tight labor market. Moreover, the U.S. economy possesses the strongest structural fundamentals in the G10. Together, this set of circumstances is likely to boost the dollar, especially at the expense of EM, commodity currencies, and the pound. GBP: Another Arrow In The Eye Nine hundred and fifty years ago to this day, King Harold, the last Anglo-Saxon King of England, died on the battlefield at Hastings from an arrow to the eye.1 The kingship of Norman William the Conqueror ushered a long and complex relationship between the British Isles and the rest of the continent. Over the past two weeks, the fall in the pound has been a dramatic story. The collapse of the nominal effective exchange rate to a nearly 200-year low, is a clear indication that the battle between the U.K. and the rest of the EU is inflicting long-term damage on the kingdom (Chart I-8). The key shock to the pound remains political. PM May made it clear that Brexit means Brexit. Additionally, elements of her discourse, such as wanting firms to list their foreign-born employees, are raising fears among the business community that the Conservatives are taking a very populist, anti-business slant that could weigh on the long-term prospects for British growth. True, these policies may never see the light of day. But across the Channel, the EU partners are taking a hardline approach to Brexit negations. Investors cheered the announcement on Wednesday that PM Theresa May will allow deeper scrutiny from parliament before triggering Brexit. Altogether, this mostly means that the cacophony over the future of the U.K. will only grow louder. Thus, we expect political headline risks to remain a strong source of uncertainty. These political games are poisonous for the pound. The U.K. is highly dependent on FDI inflows to finance it large current account deficit of nearly 6% of GDP (Chart I-9). Not knowing the status of the U.K. vis-à-vis the common market heightens any risk premium on investments in the U.K. Also, any shift of rhetoric toward a more populist discourse increases the risk that regulations could be implemented that either hurt the future profitability of British firms or increase their cost of capital. At the margin, this makes the U.K. less attractive to foreign investors. Chart I-8Something Evil This Way Comes Chart I-9The U.K. Needs Capital This has multiple implications. The pound remains highly sensitive to global liquidity trends, a fact highlighted by its extremely elevated sensitivity to EM spreads. The pound will also remain correlated with EM equity prices. This suggests that if a rising dollar acts as a lever to tighten global liquidity conditions, the pound will continue to be the currency with the largest beta to USD. In other words, investors will continue to express bullish-dollar views through the pound. Domestic dynamics are also problematic. The recent fall in the pound is lifting British inflationary pressures, a reality picked up by our Inflation Pressure Gauge (Chart I-10). In normal times, this could have lifted the pound as investors would have expected a response by the BoE. Today, however, the British credit impulse is very weak, in part reflecting the lack of confidence toward the future of the U.K. (Chart I-10, bottom panel). Hence, the BoE is not responding to these inflationary pressures. This combo is very bearish for the pound. It means that British real rates are falling, especially vis-à-vis the U.S. (Chart I-11). The U.K. is now in a vicious circle where the more the pound falls, the higher British inflation expectations go, which depresses British real rates and puts additional selling pressure on the pound. In other words, the U.K. is in the opposite spot of where Japan was in the spring of 2016. Chart I-10Stagflation Light! Chart I-11A Vicious Circle For GBP What is the downside for the pound? On a 52-week rate of change basis, the pound is not as oversold as it was at long-term bottoms like in 1985, 1993, or 2009. More concerning, long-term bottoms are also characterized by the 2-year rate of change staying oversold for a prolonged period, which again, has yet to be the case (Chart I-12). On the valuation front, GBP/USD is cheap, trading at a 25% discount to its PPP. However, in 1985, the pound was trading at a 36% discount to PPP (Chart I-13). The uncertainty around the future of the British economy is much higher today than in 1985. A move away from the pro-business Thatcherite policies of the 1980s, could result in a GBP discount similar to that of 1985. The sensitivity of the pound to the dollar amplifies the probability that such a scenario materializes. This could imply a GBP/USD toward 1.1-1.05 at its bottom. Chart I-12GBP/USD: Not Oversold Enough Chart I-13GBP/USD Valuation When is that bottom likely to emerge? With the strong downward momentum currently weighing on the pound, and the progressive un-anchoring of market based inflation expectations in the U.K., the bottom in the pound is a moving target. Moreover, Dhaval Joshi, who runs our European Investment Strategy service, has written about the fractal dimension as a tool to identify turning points in a trend. When the fractal dimension hits 1.25, a reversal in the trend is likely. Essentially, this metric measures group-think. When both short-term and long-term investors end up uniformly expressing the same views, liquidity dries up as there are fewer and fewer sellers for each buyer (or vice-versa).2 Currently GBP/USD's fractal dimension has not yet hit that stage. While the 3-6 months risk-reward ratio for the pound remains poor, the pound is now attractive as a long-term buy. The recent collapse in real rates and sterling has massively eased monetary conditions in the U.K. (Chart I-14). Also, even if valuations are a poor guide of near term returns, the 25% discount currently experienced by the pound suggests that on a one- to two-year basis, holding the GBP will be a rewarding bet. What about EUR/GBP? EUR/GBP has moved out of line with its historical link to real-rate differentials (Chart I-15). However, the pound's beta to the dollar is twice as high as that of the euro. Moreover, the pound is many times more sensitive to EM spreads than the euro. This suggests that our view of a strong dollar and tightening EM liquidity conditions are likely to weigh on GBP more than on the EUR for the next few months. Thus we believe it is still too early to short EUR/GBP. In fact EUR/GBP could flirt with 0.95. Chart I-14A Glimmer of Hope For The Long-Term Chart I-15EUR/GBP Has Overshot Fundamentals Bottom Line: While the pound is cheap, it can cheapen further. Not only is the pound being hampered by the political quagmire surrounding Brexit, but the strong sensitivity of the pound to the dollar and EM spreads are two additional potent headwinds for the British currency. Altogether, while the pound is most likely a long-term buy at current levels, it could still experience significant downside in the near term. We remain long gold in GBP terms. Four Chart Reviews Four long-term price charts caught our eye this week. First is EUR/SEK. As Chart I-16 shows, despite the valuation, economic momentum, and balance of payments advantages for the SEK, EUR/SEK broke out. We think this reflects the SEK's strong sensitivity to the dollar and brewing EM risks. A move to slightly above 10 on this cross is likely. Second, while we remain positive on NOK/SEK, the next few weeks may prove challenging. As Chart I-17 illustrates, NOK/SEK is about to test a potent downward sloping trend line, exactly as it is becoming overbought. With NOK being slightly more sensitive to the dollar than SEK, punching above this trend line will require much firmer oil prices. While our energy strategists see oil in the mid- to upper-$50s for next year, they worry that the recent rally to $52/bbl may have been too violent and is already eliciting a supply response from U.S. shale producers. Chart I-16EUR/SEK Can Rise Higher Chart I-17Big Ceiling Above Third, since the early 1980s, GBP/CAD has formed long-term bottom in the 1.5 region, a zone we expect to be tested again (Chart I-18). While CAD is more sensitive to commodity prices than the GBP, it is much less sensitive to the USD and EM spreads than the British currency. Also, the loonie does not suffer from a massive political handicap. That being said, each time the 1.5 zone has been hit, GBP/CAD slingshots higher. We recommend buying GBP/CAD at that level. Finally, since 1991, AUD/JPY has been strongly mean-reverting in a trading band between 60 and 110 (Chart I-19). Any blow-up in EM in the next few months is likely to prompt this cross to hit the low end of this band once again. Chart I-18GBP/CAD: Target 1.5 Chart I-19AUD/JPY: A Model Of Mean Reversion Mathieu Savary, Vice President Foreign Exchange Strategy mathieu@bcaresearch.com 1 This story of his death is now considered more a legend than an historical event, but we like this story. 2 Please see European Investment Strategy Special Report, "Fractals, Liquidity & A Trading Model", dated December 11, 2014, available at eis.bcaresearch.com Currencies U.S. Dollar Chart II-1USD Technicals 1 Chart II-2USD Technicals 2 Policy Commentary: "We're at a point where the economic expansion has plenty of room to run. Inflation's a little bit below our target, rather than above our target... so, I think we can be quite gentle as we go in terms of gradually removing monetary policy accommodation" - Federal Reserve Bank of New York President William Dudley (October 12, 2016) Report Links: The Dollar: The Great Redistributor - October 7, 2016 Long-Term FX Valuation Models: Updates And New Coverages - September 30, 2016 Global Perspective On Currencies: A PCA Approach For The FX Market - September 16, 2016 The Euro Chart II-3EUR Technicals 1 Chart II-4EUR Technicals 2 Policy Commentary: "Due to the role of global inflation, more stimulus is needed than in the past to deliver their domestic mandates; and where, due to the falling equilibrium interest rates, their ability to deliver that stimulus is more constrained" - ECB Executive Board Member Yves Mersch (October 12, 2016) Report Links: The Dollar: The Great Redistributor - October 7, 2016 Long-Term FX Valuation Models: Updates And New Coverages - September 30, 2016 Clashing Forces - July 29, 2016) The Yen Chart II-5JPY Technicals 1 Chart II-6JPY Technicals 2 Policy Commentary: "Since the employment situation has continued to improve, no further easing of monetary policy may be necessary... at any rate, I would like to discuss this thoroughly with other board members at our monetary policy meeting" - BoJ Board Member Yutaka Harada (October 12, 2016) Report Links: The Dollar: The Great Redistributor - October 7, 2016 Long-Term FX Valuation Models: Updates And New Coverages - September 30, 2016 How Do You Say "Whatever It Takes" In Japanese? - September 23, 2016 British Pound Chart II-7GBP Technicals 1 Chart II-8GBP Technicals 2 Policy Commentary: "If the MPC and other monetary authorities hadn't eased policy - if they had failed to accommodate the forces pushing down on the neutral real rate - the performance of the economy and equity markets, and the long-term prospects for pension funds, would probably have been worse" - BoE Deputy Governor Ben Broadbent (October 5, 2016) Report Links: The Dollar: The Great Redistributor - October 7, 2016 Long-Term FX Valuation Models: Updates And New Coverages - September 30, 2016 Messages From Bali - August 5, 2016 Australian Dollar Chart II-9AUD Technicals 1 Chart II-10AUD Technicals 2 Policy Commentary: "Inflation remains quite low. Given very subdued growth in labor costs and very low cost pressures elsewhere in the world, this is expected to remain the case for some time" - RBA Monetary Policy Statement (October 3, 2016) Report Links: Long-Term FX Valuation Models: Updates And New Coverages - September 30, 2016 Global Perspective On Currencies: A PCA Approach For The FX Market - September 16, 2016 Messages From Bali - August 5, 2016 New Zealand Dollar Chart II-11NZD Technicals 1 Chart II-12NZD Technicals 2 Policy Commentary: "Interest rates are at multi-decade lows, and our current projections and assumptions indicate that further policy easing will be required to ensure that future inflation settles near the middle of the target range" - Reserve Bank Assistant Governor John McDermott (October 11, 2016) Report Links: Long-Term FX Valuation Models: Updates And New Coverages - September 30, 2016 Global Perspective On Currencies: A PCA Approach For The FX Market - September 16, 2016 The Fed is Trapped Under Ice - September 9, 2016 Canadian Dollar Chart II-13CAD Technicals 1 Chart II-14CAD Technicals 2 Policy Commentary: "Policy is having its effects. And obviously we have room to maneuver but its not a great deal of room to maneuver and fortunately we have a different mix of policy today and the fiscal effects we talked about should be showing up in the data any time now" - BoC Governor Stephen Poloz (October 8, 2016) Report Links: The Dollar: The Great Redistributor - October 7, 2016 Long-Term FX Valuation Models: Updates And New Coverages - September 30, 2016 Global Perspective On Currencies: A PCA Approach For The FX Market - September 16, 2016 Swiss Franc Chart II-15CHF Technicals 1 Chart II-16CHF Technicals 2 Policy Commentary: "We feel [negative interest rates and currency market interventions] is actually how we can ensure our mandate, namely by making the Swiss franc less attractive" - SNB Vice President Fritz Zurbruegg (October 12, 2016) Report Links: Long-Term FX Valuation Models: Updates And New Coverages - September 30, 2016 Global Perspective On Currencies: A PCA Approach For The FX Market - September 16, 2016 Clashing Forces - July 29, 2016 Norwegian Krone Chart II-17NOK Technicals 1 Chart II-18NOK Technicals 2 Policy Commentary: "Review [of the monetary policy framework] is in order... I would, however, emphasise that our experience of the current framework is positive. This suggests a need for adjustments rather than a regime change" - Norgest Bank Governor Oeystein Olsen (October 11, 2016) Report Links: The Dollar: The Great Redistributor - October 7, 2016 Long-Term FX Valuation Models: Updates And New Coverages - September 30, 2016 Global Perspective On Currencies: A PCA Approach For The FX Market - September 16, 2016 Swedish Krona Chart II-19SEK Technicals 1 Chart II-20SEK Technicals 2 Policy Commentary: "We have all the tools but there are limits since the repo rate and additional bond purchases can produce undesired side-effects... We don't really know for how long future interest rate cuts will work in an effective way." - Riksbank Deputy Governor Cecila Skingsley (October 7, 2016) Report Links: Long-Term FX Valuation Models: Updates And New Coverages - September 30, 2016 Dazed And Confused - July 1, 2016 Grungy Times - A Replay Of The Early 1990s? - June 10, 2016 Trades & Forecasts Forecast Summary Core Portfolio Tactical Trades Closed Trades

This week, we are reviewing all of our active trades discussed in the last twelve months, which are intended to be an overlay to our recommended fixed income portfolio.

In a February <i>Special Report</i> titled "Assessing Fair Value In FX Markets" we introduced a set of long-term valuation models based on various fundamentals. We have updated the results and added KRW, INR, PHP, HKD, CLP and COP to our analysis. The dollar still remains expensive, albeit with no signs of a dangerous overvaluation. The yuan is now at its cheapest level since 2009.