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Policy

Monitoring The Risk Of A Second Inflation Wave In The US
In an Insight last month, we noted that the Global Investment Strategy service increased its subjective odds for the resurgence of US inflation later this year or early next year from 20% to 30%. Here are some of the data points that they track and that point…
Daily Insights
How Much Higher For German Yields?
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, German yields are unlikely to experience a decisive break out that would carry them to 3%. Five economic forces suggest that German yields are unlikely to move meaningfully higher in the…
Daily Insights
Is The 2024 Election Relevant To Investors?

The next six-to-nine months hold a crucial test of whether the equity market will ratify the soft landing and the Biden administration or not. If so, then markets will rally on policy continuity and likely gridlock. If not, then markets will struggle until the election is over and again in 2025-26.

Geopolitical Strategy, US Equity Strategy by Matt Gertken
US Election Market Impacts
The chief question of the 2024 election is whether US anti-establishment or populist politics is a viable electoral strategy, according to BCA’s US Political Strategy. That will have domestic and global effects not only in 2024-28 but potentially…
Daily Insights
China: Diagnosing Malaise
Before doctors prescribe treatments to a patient, they first make a diagnosis. The success of the treatment is contingent upon the accuracy of the diagnosis. The same is true for a country’s economy. Many commentators use notions like debt deflation,…
Daily Insights
China: Easing Monetary Conditions Have Not Led To Credit Growth Revival
Despite the underwhelming economic recovery, Chinese authorities remain reluctant to open wide stimulus taps as much as they have in past economic downturns. This is corroborated by the PBoC’s marginal interest rate cut last Tuesday. The one-year medium-term…
Daily Insights
The Inflation Genie In Japan
According to BCA Research’s Foreign Exchange Strategy and Global Investment Strategy services, most indications of Japanese inflation are pointing to upside surprises. This will boost interest-rate differentials in favor of the yen. Core-core CPI came…
Daily Insights
Why Bond Yields Are Near The Peak

While the bearish bond trade currently has a lot of momentum, we continue to think that Treasury yields are close to a cyclical peak and will be lower on a 6-12 month horizon.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
The Case For Japan

In this special report, we discuss whether the economic conditions necessary for a stronger yen (and higher JGB yields) will materialize over the next 12-to-18 months.

Foreign Exchange Strategy, Global Fixed Income Strategy, Global Investment Strategy by Melanie Kermadjian, Chester Ntonifor
Is The 2024 Election Relevant To Investors?

The next six-to-nine months hold a crucial test of whether the equity market will ratify the soft landing and the Biden administration or not. If so, then markets will rally on policy continuity and likely gridlock. If not, then markets will struggle until the election is over and again in 2025-26.

US Political Strategy by Matt Gertken

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