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Policy

German Inflation Slows To 2-Year Low
German inflation delivered an optimistic signal about the disinflation trend on Thursday. The headline CPI EU harmonized index collapsed from 6.4% y/y to 4.3% y/y in September– its lowest level since September 2021 and slightly below expectations of 4.5%.…
Daily Insights
US Financial Conditions Are Restrictive Again
Financial conditions tightened meaningfully in the first three quarters of 2022 as market participants anticipated an aggressive monetary tightening cycle. However, this tightening phase ended in late-2022. Indeed, economic conditions have been resilient this…
Daily Insights
Conflicting Signals From US Housing?
On the surface, US housing market data is sending conflicting signals. On the one hand, both the FHFA as well as the S&P CoreLogic gauges of US house prices surprised to the upside in July and are now expanding on both a month-over-month and…
Daily Insights
Are US Equity Valuations Consistent With The Level Of Interest Rates?
One of the few things US equity investors agree upon these days is that the S&P 500 is expensive whether it is relative to history, other asset classes, or the level of interest rates. But how overvalued is the market? To this end, BCA’s US equity…
Daily Insights
Hitting A Pause Button: Roundtable Follow-Up

Bulls and bears have capitulated, and the majority of the clients surveyed expect a rangebound market in the near term. Our fair value PE NTM indicates that the S&P 500 is only modestly overvalued. The continued outperformance of the Magnificent Seven faces multiple hurdles. Meanwhile, fiscal spending is unlikely to create an impetus for another leg up in equity performance.

US Equity Strategy by Irene Tunkel
Timing The BoJ's Next Move
As expected, the Bank of Japan voted unanimously to keep policy unchanged on Friday. The policy rate remains at -0.1% and the central bank maintains Yield Curve Control (YCC) on 10-year JGB yields. To the extent that the BoJ made an important tweak to its…
Daily Insights
The Corporate Financing Buffer
According to BCA Research’s US Investment Strategy service, nonfinancial corporate businesses have been more insulated from rising interest rates than they typically are during major rate-hike campaigns, but the buffer is shrinking.. Households have been…
Daily Insights
Fourth Quarter US Political Outlook 2023

US fiscal, monetary, and foreign policies are unlikely to deliver any dovish surprises for investors in Q4, due to the impending government shutdown, persistent inflation, and instability among OPEC+ and China.

US Political Strategy by Matt Gertken
This Cycle's Distinct Features

Emergency pandemic fiscal and monetary policy measures buffered households and nonfinancial corporate businesses in ways that have acted to lengthen the lags between monetary policy changes and their effect on the economy. We believe, however, the extended lags are merely delaying the recession, not cancelling it. We expect to downgrade equities on a tactical basis from equal weight to underweight soon.

US Investment Strategy, Global Investment Strategy by Doug Peta
Positive Surprises From US Jobless Claims And LEI
Thursday’s release of US weekly jobless claims and continuing claims delivered a positive surprise about labor market conditions. The decline in initial jobless claims to an eight-month low of 201 thousand came in below expectations of an increase from 221…
Daily Insights

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