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Policy

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Some Ammo For The Hawks

An update to our US bond strategy following this morning’s employment report.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
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Thoughts On Recent FX Moves

In this report, we explore some trading opportunities after a volatile few weeks for FX markets.

Foreign Exchange Strategy by Chester Ntonifor
Easing UK Labor Market Will Alleviate Wage Pressures
The results of the Bank of England’s latest monthly Decision Maker Panel survey reduces pressure on policymakers to tighten further. Business expectations regarding output price inflation over the coming year fell from 5.0% y/y to 4.8% y/y. Similarly, the…
Daily Insights
EU CBAM’s Inflationary Impacts
According to BCA Research’s Commodity & Energy Strategy service, the EU carbon tax – aka Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) – launched Sunday will lead to higher inflation in the medium term (3-5 years out). If enacted, the CBAM will collect…
Daily Insights
RBNZ Stands Pat
As expected, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand held the official cash rate at 5.5% on Wednesday, keeping policy unchanged for the third consecutive meeting. The press release underscored that while monetary policy is weighing on economic activity and easing…
Daily Insights
Run A Barbelled Treasury Portfolio
BCA Research’s US Bond Strategy service recommends a barbelled allocation across the Treasury curve. The Treasury curve bear-steepened in September. The 2-year/10-year Treasury slope steepened 32 bps on the month and currently sits at -43 bps. The…
Daily Insights
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Bond Meltdown, Republican Meltdown

There is a connection between the bond market meltdown and Republican Party’s meltdown. Investors should expect more short-term financial market volatility as a result of the triple whammy of high bond yields, high oil prices, and a strong dollar.

US Political Strategy by Matt Gertken
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The ‘Sahm Rule’ Recession Trigger Is Good, But The ‘Joshi Rule’ Is Better

We unveil the ‘Joshi rule’ real-time recession indicator as a much better version of the Federal Reserve’s own ‘Sahm rule’. And we identify what would trigger these recession indicators in this week’s and future US jobs reports. Plus: airlines, soybeans, and tin are all good rebound candidates based on their collapsed short-term complexities.

Counterpoint by Dhaval Joshi
The RBA: A Wait-And-See Strategy
The Australian dollar was among the worst performing major currencies on Tuesday after the Reserve Bank of Australia held the cash rate at 4.1% for the fourth consecutive month. In her post meeting statement, newly appointed Governor Michele Bullock noted…
Daily Insights
The Signal From The US Inflation Surprise Index
The Citi US Inflation Surprise Index has risen over the past two months after having bottomed at a three-year low in July. The good news is that the level of the index remains negative after having first fallen below zero in April – meaning inflation data is…
Daily Insights

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