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Oil

Has OPEC+ Exhausted Its Policy Levers?
One commodity that has not reacted to the bullish demand-side news from the Politburo (see The Numbers) is crude oil. Brent shed over 2% on Thursday, in sharp contrast to Copper’s gains. Oil markets seem to be reacting to a bearish supply-side development…
Daily Insights
A Meaningful US Crude Reacceleration Is Unlikely
According to BCA Research’s Commodity and Energy strategy service, even though US crude output will continue rising, a meaningful growth acceleration is unlikely. US producers adjust their output in response to market conditions. In the past, a selloff in…
Daily Insights
Seven Geopolitical October Surprises
According to BCA Research’s Geopolitical Strategy service, seven surprises with non-negligible odds could tip the scale in favor of Republicans for the White House by November 5. One of them is a war between Israel and Iran. Iran is still highly likely to…
Daily Insights
Lower Path Of Least Resistance For Oil Prices
The decline in oil prices accelerated this month. Although Wednesday’s moves reversed Tuesday’s sharp daily declines, Brent and WTI have fallen 11% and 10% so far in September, and 30% and 33% from their April peaks. Deteriorating demand likely drove these…
Daily Insights
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MacroQuant Model Update: Pre-Recessionary Stage

MacroQuant continues to recommend underweighting equities and overweighting bonds. This is consistent with the Global Investment Strategy Team's decision to downgrade global equities to underweight in late June.

Global Investment Strategy by Peter Berezin
Oil Is Facing Opposing Forces
According to BCA Research’s Commodity & Energy Strategy service, oil markets are caught in a tug-of-war that has kept oil prices in a trading range since H2 2023. Bearish demand concerns are enforcing an upper limit on the price of crude while bullish…
Daily Insights
Carbon Credit Prices: The Correction Has Just Begun
European regulatory carbon credits (EUAs) are becoming increasingly investable as an asset class. In a Special Report published last September, our Global Investment strategists agreed to the strategic bull case for EUAs, but highlighted a bearish view on…
Daily Insights
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How ‘Bout Them Apples

The great US labor market shortage is over. Labor demand will likely fall short of supply by the end of this year, causing unemployment to soar. Neither fiscal nor monetary policy will be able to prevent the coming recession. Investors should underweight stocks and overweight Treasuries.

Global Investment Strategy by Peter Berezin
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Volatility Will Return Very Soon (GeoRisk Update)

Investors should buy protection against further volatility. The shakeup in early August was a taste of things to come. The US election is a pivotal moment in modern history that will drive up uncertainty, while other countries take advantage of US division and distraction.

Geopolitical Strategy by Matt Gertken
Oil Forecasters Downgrade Their Demand Projections
Back in May, our Commodity and Energy strategists argued that OPEC, EIA, and IEA oil demand forecasts were likely too optimistic. Indeed, while all three major oil price forecasters projected a moderation in demand this year, none of them anticipated weak…
Daily Insights

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