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Monetary Policy

Hungary’s Bond Moment
Hungary’s policy mix is turning bond-friendly. The Hungarian National Bank held rates at 6.25%, citing a better inflation outlook supported by a stronger forint and the delayed phaseout of regulated fuel prices. Our EM strategists expect the forint to…
Daily Insights by Rajeeb Pramanik
Indonesia’s Policy Trap
Bank Indonesia raised its policy rate by 50 bps to 5.25% last week, 25 bps above expectations, as a response to persistent rupiah weakness. The recent sell-off in the rupiah and local bonds was partly triggered by the finance minister's plan to spend an…
Daily Insights by Rajeeb Pramanik
Cuts Exit The Fed Conversation
The April FOMC minutes clarified the hawkish shift that marked the meeting. The Fed held at its last meeting, but there were four dissents. While Governor Miran favored a 25 bps cut, regional presidents Hammack, Kashkari, and Logan supported a hold but voted…
Daily Insights by Felix Vezina-Poirier
No Relief For Canada?
Canada’s data keep disappointing, and stable but still-restrictive financial conditions point to subdued growth ahead. As we recently highlighted, Canadian economic surprises turned negative earlier this year and have kept falling. Canada also faces several…
Daily Insights by Felix Vezina-Poirier
A Monetary Playbook For Oil Shocks
The Bank of England’s latest Monetary Policy Report offers a clean framework for thinking through an oil shock and the appropriate policy response. The first channel is the direct effect of higher energy prices on inflation such as higher gas and utilities…
Daily Insights by Felix Vezina-Poirier
Sweden: Still No Case For Hikes
The Riksbank left rates unchanged and is likely to stay on hold, as soft inflation and weaker growth leave little case for tightening. The policy rate was left at 1.75%, as expected, and the Riksbank signaled it will remain on hold in the near term. This…
Daily Insights by Gabriel Gosselin, Felix Vezina-Poirier
Central Bank Monitor Update: No Move Until June

Central banks remain on hold amid heightened uncertainty. We rely on BCA’s Central Bank Monitors to assess the current policy stance of major central banks, and highlight the tactical opportunities across bond markets and currencies.

Global Fixed Income Strategy, European Investment Strategy, Foreign Exchange Strategy by Deborah Acri, Jeremie Peloso, Eugenia Pan, Sanjiv Thomas
The Stage Is Set For Further BoJ Hikes

The BoJ held rates overnight, but the direction of travel hasn’t changed. We discuss how stronger wages, rising inflation, and a weak yen point to further tightening ahead.

Global Fixed Income Strategy by Robert Timper
With Central Banks On Hold, Carry Takes Over

With central banks largely on hold, the return of a lower volatility environment is bringing carry trades back into focus. We outline the most attractive carry opportunities across global fixed income markets.

Global Fixed Income Strategy by Robert Timper
How Much Of A Threat Is Inflation?

We do not expect the oil shock to have a lasting effect on inflation. Looking further out, a variety of structural forces will influence inflation, including fiscal policy, globalization, demographics, and AI.

Global Investment Strategy by Peter Berezin

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