Sorry, you need to enable JavaScript to visit this website.
Skip to main content
Skip to main content

Manufacturing

Taiwanese Export Orders Relapse
Taiwanese export orders sent a disappointing signal about global manufacturing conditions on Wednesday, corroborating the message from Singapore’s NODX release earlier this week. The pace of decline in export orders accelerated to -15.7% y/y in August --…
Daily Insights
Industrial Metals: Signal Vs. Noise
Over the past few months a schism has emerged in the industrial metals complex. On the one hand, the Bloomberg Industrial Metals Index – which is composed of futures contracts on copper, aluminum, zinc, nickel, and lead – has been gyrating in a trading range…
Daily Insights
Singapore’s NODX: No Imminent Global Manufacturing Rebound
Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports (NODX) sent a pessimistic signal about the global manufacturing cycle on Monday. The 20.1% y/y contraction in August is broadly in line with July’s 20.3% y/y drop and came in below consensus estimates of a 17.1% y/y…
Daily Insights
Lags And Loops

While we are sympathetic to the view that the Fed could temporarily achieve a soft landing, we are skeptical that it could stick that landing for very long. Stocks could strengthen into year-end, with small caps potentially leading the charge. But the rally will fizzle out next year as the global economy begins to sink into recession.

Global Investment Strategy by Peter Berezin
Global Manufacturing Downturn Slows
The Global Manufacturing PMI suggests that although the global manufacturing downturn remains intact, the pace of deterioration slowed in August. The headline PMI index ticked up by 0.4 points to 49. In particular, the Output, New Orders, and New Export…
Daily Insights
Monthly Portfolio Update: Recession Postponed – But Not Avoided

A global recession continues to be likely over the next 12 months. The impact of tighter monetary policy is slowly being felt. Government bonds look increasingly attractive as a safe haven.

Global Asset Allocation by Garry Evans
Where Things Stand

Stocks should continue to rally in the near term, but investors should prepare to turn more defensive towards the end of the year in advance of a recession in 2024.

Global Investment Strategy by Peter Berezin
Copper Prices: On A Downward Slope
Special Report

Contrary to the widespread belief in the investment community, the global copper supply-demand balance is no longer in deficit. Red metal prices are set to decline by another 10-15% as the global copper market will shift to a larger surplus in the next six months.

China Investment Strategy, Emerging Markets Strategy
US And China Agree To Hold Semiannual Trade Dialogue
The US and China agreed to hold trade talks more regularly on August 28, even as they fell short of establishing a strategic détente or general reduction of tensions. US Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo visited Beijing and met with Chinese Premier Li Qiang…
Daily Insights
Will US Data Deliver More Strong Positive Surprises?
On the surface, the latest uptick in the General Business Activity Index of the Dallas Fed’s Manufacturing Survey suggests that manufacturing activity is no longer deteriorating at an accelerating pace. The indicator rose by 2.8 points to -17.2 in August —…
Daily Insights

Related Topics

Business Cycles Capex Consumer Corporate Economic Growth Government Inflation/Deflation Labor Market Productivity Recession-Hard/Soft Landing See more Topics