Labor Market

For the first time in at least fifty years, US labour supply is running well below labour demand, meaning the US economy is ‘inverted’. We discuss how and why the economy inverted, and what it means for recession, inflation, and asset allocation. Plus: NVDA is at a consolidation point.

In this Strategy Outlook we examine why, contrary to popular perception, the odds of a global recession over the next 12 months are rising not falling.

GAI is a powerful force that will revolutionize the global economy and we are sold on this long-term investment theme. To partake in the upward momentum, we recommend a nuanced approach. The GAI infrastructure cohort is now overbought - there should be a better entry point. The models and applications companies and early adopters are less of a crowded trade and offer more opportunities.

Does the recent surprise rate cut by the Swiss National Bank augur other dovish surprises among major central banks in Europe?

In this joint Foreign Exchange Strategy and Global Investment Strategy Special Report, we assess economic activity in Sweden, a highly cyclical and trade-oriented economy, and its implications for the global growth outlook.

Our takeaways from this afternoon’s FOMC meeting.

The Bank of Japan delivered a historic policy adjustment this week, ending both negative interest rates and Yield Curve Control. In this Insight, BCA’s global fixed income and currency strategists discuss the immediate implications of the move for Japanese bond yields and the yen, and the potential for additional tightening actions.