Labor Market
The July employment report revealed large downward revisions and slowing payroll growth, reinforcing our defensive stance. Nonfarm payrolls rose just 73k, and prior months were revised down by 258k, bringing the 3-month average to 35k, well below the…
Economic activity and hiring cooled significantly in the first half of the year. The most important question for investors is whether this signals an imminent increase in labor market slack.
In Section I, Doug weighs the recent reduction in trade uncertainty against the clear signs of labor market and consumer weakness. In Section II, Jonathan reviews the US fiscal outlook in the wake of the passage of the OBBBA.
In Section II, Jonathan reviews the US fiscal outlook in the wake of the passage of the OBBBA.
The Fed will keep rates on hold until the unemployment rate forces its hand.
The Fed held rates steady for a fifth straight meeting, with a divided FOMC and resilient growth keeping policy on hold, supporting our long-duration stance. The target range remains at 4.25%–4.50%, with the statement reflecting only a modest downgrade to the…
The June JOLTS report showed further weakening in US labor market momentum, reinforcing our overweight duration stance and preference for steepeners. Job openings fell more than expected to 7.4m from a downwardly revised 7.7m, while quits declined to 3.1m and…
The July Conference Board Consumer Confidence report showed improved expectations but weaker current conditions, reinforcing our defensive stance and preference for downside protection. The headline index rose to 97.2 from a revised 95.2 on the back of better…
The July Dallas Fed survey beat expectations, pointing to a rebound in current activity, but the outlook remains subdued, supporting our modestly defensive asset allocation. The headline index rose to 0.9 from -12.7 in June, with production jumping 20 points…
Investors should anticipate above average Treasury returns during the next 12 months, and curve steepeners will continue to profit.