Labor Market

The Riksbank held at 2.0% as core inflation remains above target, though easing pressures are building. July headline inflation had slightly cooled, but core remains above both the bank’s forecast and the 1-3% target band. Inflation drivers point to…

Hot July inflation does not alter the weakening UK backdrop, keeping Gilts attractive and GBP vulnerable. Headline CPI rose 0.1% m/m, lifting y/y inflation to 3.8% from 3.6%, while core ticked up to 3.8% from 3.7%. Services inflation remained sticky,…

US housing data remain weak, reinforcing a fragile growth backdrop and the need for equity downside protection. July housing starts rose 5.2% m/m (annualized), but building permits fell 2.8% following a small June decline. The August NAHB Housing Market…

UK data momentum is fading, keeping Gilts attractive and GBP vulnerable. At 5.60%, 30-year Gilts trade at their highest yields since the late 1990s, reflecting persistent pressure on the long end across DMs. The Bank of England has lagged the ECB in its…

A smooth S&P 500 rally has crushed volatility, but stretched signals argue for buying protection. The index has climbed back to all-time highs with almost no drawdown, producing a steady decline in realized volatility. This has pushed implied…

Retail sales and consumer sentiment data point to slowing underlying momentum despite headline resilience. Retail sales rose 0.5% m/m in July, below estimates and decelerating from 0.9% in June. The control group beat estimates at 0.5% but also slowed.…

July PPI surprised sharply to the upside, but inflation pressures are likely to remain limited. Headline PPI rose 0.9% m/m (3.3% y/y) in July from 0.0% m/m (2.3% y/y) in June, while core PPI gained 0.6% m/m (2.8% y/y). PPI components feeding into PCE…

The RBA delivered a widely expected cut to 3.6%, but resilient data warrant an ACGBs underweight. The 25 bps cut was the third this year and Governor Bullock’s guidance was consistent with a cut every other meeting, keeping ACGB yields roughly…

July US CPI met expectations as leading indicators point to disinflation, supporting our long duration stance and preference for 2s5s steepeners. Headline CPI rose 0.2% m/m (2.7% y/y), while core increased 0.3% m/m and accelerated to 3.1% y/y. Both goods…

The July NFIB survey showed a rebound in expectations, but underlying weakness reinforces left-tail risks and supports a moderate risk-off allocation. The headline index rose to 100.3, a five-month high, but remains below December 2024 levels. The…