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Inflation/Deflation

Will The BoJ Contribute To A Yen Rebound?
As expected, the Bank of Japan maintained its ultra-easy monetary policy stance at its meeting on Tuesday, making no changes in interest rates or yield curve control. The monetary policy statement highlighted that elevated uncertainty around the economic…
Daily Insights
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The Big Bank Beige Book, January 2024

The SIFI banks expressed confidence in their credit outlook for 2024 and expect that credit losses will crest soon, given the reserves they’ve already set aside. Their implicit embrace of the soft-landing narrative suggests to us that the consensus is getting closer to being set up for disappointment. We remain tactically equal weight equities and fixed income but think conditions may soon favor turning defensive.

US Investment Strategy by Doug Peta
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These Labor Market Indicators Are Pointing To A Hard Landing

Investors have taken comfort in the fact that unemployment has remained low in the major economies. But underneath the surface, there are clear signs that labor demand is weakening. The clock keeps ticking towards our H2 2024 recession call. After being bullish on risk assets last year, we are slowly turning more defensive.

Global Investment Strategy by Peter Berezin
Brazil’s Central Bank Is Being Politicized
The Central Bank of Brazil (BCB) has cut the Selic rate by 50 basis points in each of the past four meetings and has alluded to maintaining this size of cuts for the coming meetings. Governor Roberto Campos Neto stated last month that he aims to bring…
Daily Insights
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The Fed’s Plan For Policy Easing

An update to our outlooks for the Fed’s interest rate and balance sheet policies following this week’s remarks from Fed Governor Waller.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
China's Economic Outlook Remains Gloomy
Chinese data continues to send a pessimistic signal for domestic risk assets and China plays. Although at 5.2% in Q4, GDP growth stands above the official target, it underwhelmed anticipations of 5.3%. Moreover, other data releases reveal that the economy…
Daily Insights
Resilient US Retail Sales Suggest Dovish Fed Surprise Not Imminent
The US retail sales release delivered a positive signal about the US economy in December. The 0.6% m/m increase in overall retail sales beat expectations of a more muted acceleration from 0.3% m/m to 0.4% m/m. Importantly, the improvement was broad-based with…
Daily Insights
A BoE Pivot Requires Lower UK Inflation
The British pound was the best performing G10 currency on Wednesday as UK gilts sold off meaningfully with the 10-year yield ending the day nearly 19 basis points higher. An unexpected acceleration in CPI inflation in December prompted the move. Notably,…
Daily Insights
Rate Cut Expectations Continue To Bolster German Investor Morale
Results of the ZEW survey sent a slightly positive signal on German investor sentiment. The economic expectations indicator rose to an 11-month high in January – beating consensus estimates of a decline. This increased optimism about the outlook reflects an…
Daily Insights
Are Inflationary Pressures Picking Up In Canada?
Canadian government bond yields jumped on Tuesday, with the 10-year yield rising by nearly 14 basis points. While most other major DM government bonds also sold off, the move in Canadian yields was relatively more pronounced. Both global and domestic forces…
Daily Insights

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Business Cycles Capex Consumer Corporate Economic Growth Government Labor Market Manufacturing Productivity Recession-Hard/Soft Landing See more Topics