Global

Highlights Duration: The bond market’s bearish trend remains intact, but suffered a hiccup last week as some economic data disappointed. Our sense is that the worst of the global growth slowdown is over, but a rebound in our preferred global growth indicators – Global Manufacturing PMI, US ISM Manufacturing PMI and CRB Raw Industrials index – is necessary to push bond yields higher. We expect that such a rebound will transpire in the coming months. The Credit Cycle & Inflation: Low inflation expectations will keep monetary policy accommodative for the next 6-12 months. This justifies a positive outlook for spread product excess returns. Eventually, inflation will return and force the Fed to adopt a more restrictive stance. This will lead to the end of the credit cycle. We will get more defensive on spread product when long-maturity TIPS breakeven inflation rates move above 2.3%. Municipal Bonds: The main issues facing municipal bonds are long-run in nature, mostly related to underfunded state & local government pensions. These concerns are propping up yield ratios at the long-end of the muni curve, but aren’t likely to cause a wave of ratings downgrades until revenue growth slows during the next downturn. For the time being, investors can grab an attractive after-tax yield premium in long-maturity munis. Hiccups Judging by the bond market, recession fears appear to have peaked in late August. Since then, the Treasury index has lost 2.1% versus a position in cash and the 2/10 yield curve is 23 bps steeper (Chart 1). Curve steepening has also occurred via the real yield curve, while the breakeven inflation curve is moderately flatter, consistent with our expectations.1 However, this bearish bond market trend suffered a set-back last week. The 10-year yield fell 10 bps, back down to 1.84%, and the 2-year yield fell 7 bps to 1.61%. The move was driven by an increase in skepticism about the US and China’s “phase 1” trade deal and some mixed economic data. Both industrial production growth and capacity utilization remain well above their 2016 lows, consistent with stronger PMIs.  October’s Industrial Production report was the worst of last week’s data releases. Production declined 0.8% on the month and capacity utilization fell from 77.5% to 76.7% (Chart 2). The data were significantly influenced by the General Motors strike, but the index still fell 0.5% with motor vehicles and parts stripped out. In our prior discussions of the divergence between “hard” and “soft” economic data, we pointed to relatively strong industrial production as a reason to expect a snapback in depressed manufacturing PMIs.2 This month’s weak print challenges that view, though both industrial production growth and capacity utilization remain well above their 2016 lows, consistent with stronger PMIs. The New York Fed’s Manufacturing PMI also came in roughly flat last week, and continues to point to a rebound in the national index (Chart 2, bottom panel). Chart 1Bumps On The Road ##br##To Higher Yields Chart 2Disappointing Data, But Well ##br##Above 2016 Lows October’s retail sales were also released last week, and we continue to observe a wide divergence between strong consumer spending growth and falling consumer confidence (Chart 3). As with the divergence between industrial production and the manufacturing PMI, we suspect that negative sentiment about the US/China trade war has unduly depressed consumer and business sentiment. Sentiment should rebound if trade tensions ease in the coming months, as we expect. Finally, we note that the CRB Raw Industrials index remains downbeat (Chart 4). We should continue to view the recent increase in bond yields as tenuous until it is confirmed by a rebound in this global growth bellwether. Chart 3Retail Sales Still Strong Chart 4Waiting On The CRB Index To Rebound Bottom Line: The bond market’s bearish trend remains intact, but suffered a hiccup last week as some economic data disappointed. Our sense is that the worst of the global growth slowdown is over, but a rebound in our preferred global growth indicators – Global Manufacturing PMI, US ISM Manufacturing PMI and CRB Raw Industrials index – is necessary to push bond yields higher. We expect that such a rebound will transpire in the coming months.   Inflation Will End The Cycle … But Not Anytime Soon As global growth improves during the next few months and recession fears fade into the background, discussion will once again turn toward questions about how much longer the credit cycle can run, and what will ultimately bring it to an end. On the first question, we find the slope of the yield curve to be an excellent indicator of the age of the cycle. Specifically, we like to split each cycle into three phases based on the slope of the 3-year/10-year yield curve: 3 Phase 1 starts at the end of the last recession and ends when the 3/10 slope flattens to below 50 bps. Phase 2 encompasses the period when the slope is between 0 bps and 50 bps. Phase 3 begins when the 3/10 slope inverts and ends at the start of the next recession. We expect Phase 2 to persist for some time given that inflation expectations remain downbeat. Table 1 shows that corporate bond excess returns are highest in Phase 1, when the yield curve is steep and spreads are tightening quickly. Excess returns tend to remain positive in Phase 2, but are much lower. Excess returns don’t usually turn negative until after the yield curve inverts and we enter Phase 3. Table 1Corporate Bond Performance During The Three Phases Of The Yield Curve Cycle Though some segments of the yield curve inverted in August, we do not think that the cycle has transitioned into Phase 3. The inversion was quite brief, and the measure we employ in our analysis – the monthly average of daily closing values of the 3-year/10-year slope – never broke below zero. The 3-year/10-year slope is currently +23 bps. We expect the current Phase 2 environment to persist for some time, and consequently, corporate bonds will deliver small positive excess returns relative to Treasuries. The reason why we expect Phase 2 to persist for some time is that inflation expectations remain downbeat (Chart 5). Both the 10-year and 5-year/5-year forward TIPS breakeven inflation rates are well below the 2.3%-2.5% range that is consistent with the Fed’s target. This means that the Fed has every incentive to maintain an accommodative monetary policy until inflation expectations are re-anchored. An accommodative policy stance will prevent the yield curve from inverting for any sustained period of time. Chart 5The Re-Anchoring Process Will Take Time The upshot is that a re-anchoring of TIPS breakeven inflation rates will be an important signal for us to get more defensive on corporate credit. When the 10-year and 5-year/5-year forward TIPS breakeven inflation rates move above 2.3%, the Fed will have less incentive to maintain an accommodative stance. The pace of tightening will likely quicken, leading to a sustained curve inversion and a transition into Phase 3 of the cycle. How Long Until Inflation Expectations Are Re-Anchored? Given our framework for thinking about the age of the cycle, the big question for our corporate credit call is: How long until inflation expectations are re-anchored? We have previously demonstrated that inflation expectations adapt to changes in the actual inflation data, and that this adaptive process occurs very slowly.4 Note that our Adaptive Expectations Model puts fair value for the 10-year TIPS breakeven inflation rate at 1.9%. This is above the current rate of 1.63%, but still well below our 2.3%-2.5% target range (Chart 5, bottom panel). The gradual nature of the adaptive process means that actual core inflation will probably have to overshoot the Fed’s 2% target for a period of time before long-dated expectations are firmly re-anchored. With that in mind, we are still a long way away from inflation posing a problem for the credit cycle. Core CPI and core PCE inflation are running at year-over-year rates of 2.3% and 1.7%, respectively, both slightly below levels consistent with the Fed’s target (Chart 6).5 Trimmed mean measures are slightly higher and less volatile. They currently suggest that core inflation will remain in a slow and steady uptrend going forward. Any durable increase in core inflation will likely occur via the Core Services (ex. shelter and medical care) component.  Looking at the main components of core inflation, we see some reason to expect consumer price acceleration to cool in the coming months. Recent inflation gains have come mostly via the Core Goods component (Chart 7). This component tracks non-oil import prices with a long lag, and import prices have already rolled over. Meanwhile, shelter is the largest component of core inflation and we expect it will remain well supported in the coming months. The National Multifamily Housing Council’s Apartment Market Tightness Index has been in “net tightening” territory for two consecutive quarters (Chart 7, bottom panel). An above-50% reading from this index tends to coincide with rising shelter inflation. Chart 6Expect Core Inflation To Rise Slowly Chart 7A Closer Look At The Core CPI Components Ultimately, any durable increase in core inflation will likely occur via the Core Services (ex. shelter and medical care) component. This component has been relatively stable during the past few months (Chart 7, panel 3). Another interesting dynamic to monitor when assessing how long it will take for inflation to return is the labor share of national income. Chart 8 shows that the wage acceleration seen during the past few years has come mostly at the expense of corporate profit margins, and has not yet been significantly passed through to higher consumer prices. This is typical late-cycle behavior, and at some point firms will need to start raising prices in order to protect margins. Chart 8Where Will The Labor Share Peak? If we use the past few cycles as a guide, we see that the labor share of income peaked at above 70%. If this is an accurate road-map for the current cycle, then it means that firms can stomach quite a bit more margin compression, and it could be a long time before inflation pressures emerge. However, some recent research suggests that the labor share of income might peak at a lower level this cycle than in the past.6  This research documents that many industries are increasingly dominated by a small number of “superstar firms”. These firms have greater pricing power and might be able to sustain higher profit margins indefinitely. This would mean that inflationary pressures could re-emerge at a lower labor share of national income than in previous cycles. Bottom Line: Low inflation expectations will keep monetary policy accommodative for the next 6-12 months. This justifies a positive outlook for spread product excess returns. Eventually, inflation will return and force the Fed to adopt a more restrictive stance. This will lead to the end of the credit cycle. We will get more defensive on spread product when long-maturity TIPS breakeven inflation rates move above 2.3%. Strong Revenue Growth Supports Munis We continue to recommend an overweight allocation to municipal bonds due to attractive yield ratios, particularly for long maturities, and steady state & local government revenue growth. Chart 9 shows that Aaa Municipal / Treasury yield ratios were quite low earlier this year, but have increased significantly during the past few months. Yield ratios are above average pre-crisis levels for maturities of 10-years and greater. Against that back-drop of attractive valuations, credit quality trends are also supportive. Municipal bond ratings upgrades are outpacing downgrades (Chart 10), and history suggests that will continue until state & local government revenue growth slows. On that front, the three main sources of state & local government revenue are all growing at strong rates, a trend that should continue as long as the economic recovery is maintained. Municipal bond ratings upgrades are outpacing downgrades, and history suggests that will continue until state & local government revenue growth slows.  Of course, many state & local governments face long-run credit constraints, mostly related to underfunded pension obligations. This is almost certainly the reason why yield ratios for long-maturity bonds are so attractive. Crucially, these long-run issues will not be exposed until revenue growth slows during the next economic downturn, and investors have an opportunity to capture the attractive yield premium in the meantime. Chart 9Great Value At The Long End Chart 10Revenue Growth Will Remain Strong State governments have also made progress shoring up their balance sheets during the past few years. The National Association of State Budget Officers calculates that the overall state & local government total balance has returned back to 2006 levels, while rainy day funds have been built up considerably (Chart 11). Chart 11States Are Growing Rainy Day Funds Bottom Line: The main issues facing municipal bonds are long-run in nature, mostly related to underfunded state & local government pensions. These concerns are propping up yield ratios at the long-end of the muni curve, but aren’t likely to cause a wave of ratings downgrades until revenue growth slows during the next downturn. For the time being, investors can grab an attractive after-tax yield premium in long-maturity munis.   Ryan Swift US Bond Strategist rswift@bcaresearch.com Footnotes 1 Please see US Bond Strategy Weekly Report, “Position For Modest Curve Steepening”, dated October 29, 2019, available at usbs.bcaresearch.com 2Please see US Bond Strategy Weekly Report, “Crisis Of Confidence”, dated October 22, 2019, available at usbs.bcaresearch.com 3 For more details on our analysis of the phases of the cycle based on the slope of the yield curve please see US Bond Strategy Special Report, “2019 Key Views: Implications For US Fixed Income”, dated December 11, 2018, available at usbs.bcaresearch.com 4 Please see US Bond Strategy Weekly Report, “Adaptive Expectations In The TIPS Market”, dated November 20, 2018, available at usbs.bcaresearch.com 5 The Fed targets 2% PCE inflation, which is historically consistent with CPI inflation between 2.4% and 2.5%. 6 https://economics.mit.edu/files/12979 Fixed Income Sector Performance Recommended Portfolio Specification

Dear Client, I will be visiting clients in Paris, Amsterdam, and London next week. In lieu of our regular report, we will be sending you a Special Report from Matt Gertken, BCA’s Chief Geopolitical Strategist. Matt argues that US politics and the 2020 election represent the greatest source of geopolitical risk over the coming year, and possibly beyond. Best regards, Peter Berezin Highlights Having underperformed for more than ten years, non-US stocks are set to gain the upper hand over their US peers. A reacceleration in global growth, a weaker US dollar, and favorable valuations should all support non-US stocks next year. Meanwhile, one of the greater drivers of US equity outperformance – the stellar returns of tech stocks – is likely to dissipate. Investors should remain overweight global equities relative to bonds, but start increasing allocations to non-US stocks at the expense of US stocks. US Stocks: From Leaders To Laggards? US equities have handily outperformed their global peers since 2008. About half of that outperformance was due to faster sales-per-share growth in the US, a third was due to faster growth in US margins, and the rest was due to relative P/E expansion in favor of the US (Chart 1). Looking ahead, non-US stocks are set to gain the upper hand over their US peers thanks to an improving global growth backdrop, a weaker US dollar, and an increasingly irresistible valuation tailwind. Chart 1Faster Sales Growth, Rising Margins, And Relative PE Expansion Helped Drive US Outperformance Over The Past Decade Improving Global Growth Outlook Global growth should benefit next year from the dovish pivot by most central banks. The share of central banks cutting/raising rates leads global growth by about 6-to-9 months (Chart 2). Chart 2Lower Rates Should Help Spur Growth Chart 3The Effects Of Easing Monetary Policy Should Soon Trickle Down To The Economy The global manufacturing downturn is also coming to end as inventories continue to be run down. The auto sector, which has been at the forefront of the manufacturing slowdown, is finally showing signs of life. US banks stopped tightening lending standards for auto loans in the third quarter. They are also reporting stronger demand for vehicle financing (Chart 3). In Europe, the new orders-to-inventory ratio of the Markit Europe Automobile PMI has moved back to parity for the first time since the autumn of 2018. In China, vehicle production and sales are rebounding on a rate-of-change basis (Chart 4). Both automobile ownership and vehicle sales in China are still a fraction of what they are in most other economies (Chart 5). Chart 4Chinese Auto Sector Is Bottoming Out Chart 5China: Structural Outlook For Autos Is Bright The trade war is a clear and present danger to our bullish outlook on global growth. The good news is that President Trump has a strong incentive to make a deal. A resurgence in the trade war would hurt the economy, which is Trump’s best selling point (Chart 6). As a self-described master negotiator, Trump has to produce a “tremendous” deal for the American people. Had he negotiated an agreement a year or two ago, he would currently be on the hook for showing that it resulted in a smaller trade deficit with China. But with the presidential election only a year away, he can semi-credibly claim that the trade balance will improve only after he is re-elected. Assuming a “Phase 1” agreement is concluded, global business sentiment should improve. Chart 6Trump Gets Reasonably High Marks On His Handling Of The Economy, But Not Much Else A détente in the trade war is unlikely to cause China to restart its deleveraging campaign. Credit growth is currently only a few points above trend nominal GDP growth, implying that the ratio of credit-to-GDP is barely increasing (Chart 7). The combined Chinese credit and fiscal impulse is still rising; it reliably leads global growth by about nine months (Chart 8). Chart 7China: The Deleveraging Campaign Has Been Put On The Backburner Chart 8Chinese Stimulus Should Boost Global Growth Faster Global Growth Should Disproportionately Benefit Non-US stocks The sector composition of international stocks is more skewed towards cyclicals than defensives compared to US stocks (Table 1). As a result, non-US stocks generally outperform their US peers when global growth accelerates (Chart 9). Table 1Cyclicals Are More Heavily Weighted Outside The US Stock Market We would include financials in our definition of cyclical sectors. As global growth improves, long-term bond yields will increase at the margin (Chart 10). Since central banks are in no hurry to raise rates, yield curves will steepen. This will boost bank net interest margins, flattering profits and share prices (Chart 11). Chart 9Non-US Equities Usually Outperform When Global Growth Improves Chart 10Stronger Economic Growth Will Put Upward Pressure On Government Bond Yields   The US Dollar Should Weaken Compared to most other economies, the United States has a large service sector and a small manufacturing base. This makes the US a “low beta” play on global growth. As a result, capital tends to flow from the US to the rest of the world when global growth picks up, putting downward pressure on the US dollar in the process (Chart 12). Chart 11Steeper Yield Curves Will Benefit Financials Chart 12The Dollar Is A Countercyclical Currency   Interest-rate differentials have been moving against the dollar for most of this year (Chart 13). This makes the greenback more vulnerable to a correction. Chart 13The Dollar Has Been Diverging From Rate Differentials This Year Chart 14Long Dollar Is A Crowded Trade Bullish sentiment towards the dollar also remains somewhat stretched. Net long speculative positions are near the top of their historic range (Chart 14). Our tactical MacroQuant model, which has an excellent track record of predicting short-to-medium term moves in the dollar, has dropped its bullish bias towards the currency (Chart 15).   Chart 15MacroQuant Has Soured On The US Dollar A weaker dollar will help boost commodity prices, which is usually good news for cyclical stocks (Chart 16). A softer dollar will also raise the USD value of overseas shares, thus making international stocks more attractive in common-currency terms. Valuations Favor Non-US Stocks There is an old investment adage which says that valuations are useless as a short-term timing tool. That is only partially true. While valuations by themselves offer little guidance as to where the stock market is going in the short run, combined with a catalyst, valuations can make a big difference. When stocks are cheap, a bullish catalyst can cause prices to surge; whereas when stocks are expensive, a bearish catalyst can cause them to plunge. Looking ahead, non-US stocks are set to gain the upper hand over their US peers thanks to an improving global growth backdrop, a weaker US dollar, and an increasingly irresistible valuation tailwind. Non-US stocks are currently trading at 13.8-times forward earnings. This represents a significant discount to US stocks, which trade at a forward PE ratio of 17.7. The valuation discount is even greater if one looks at other measures such as the cyclically-adjusted PE, price-to-book, price-to-sales, and the dividend yield (Chart 17). Chart 16A Weaker Dollar Tends To Support Commodity Prices Chart 17US Stocks Are More Expensive...   Differences in sector weights account for about a quarter of the valuation gap between the US and the rest of the world (Chart 18). The rest of the gap is due to cheaper valuations within sectors. Financials, utilities, and consumer discretionary stocks, in particular, are quite a bit more expensive in the US than elsewhere (Chart 19). Chart 18…Even When Adjusting For Sector Weights Chart 19AEquity Sector Valuations: US Versus The Rest Of The World (I) Chart 19BEquity Sector Valuations: US Versus The Rest Of The World (II)   The valuation gap between the US and the rest of the world is even starker if we compare earnings yields with bond yields. Since bond yields are lower outside the US, the implied equity risk premium is markedly higher for non-US stocks (Chart 20). An examination of the relative performance of US vs non-US companies over the past 50 years reveals two major tops, and one potential top. Some commentators have argued that the loftier valuations enjoyed by US stocks are warranted due to their superior growth prospects. While there may be some truth to that, it is worth noting that the IMF projects GDP growth (based on MSCI country weights) will be faster outside the US over the next five years (Chart 21). Chart 20Equity Risk Premia Remain Quite High Chart 21Growth Prospects Brighter Outside The US   One should also keep in mind that relatively fast US earnings growth is a fairly recent phenomenon. Between 1970 and 2008, European EPS actually grew slightly faster than US EPS (Chart 22). Earnings in emerging markets also increased more rapidly than in the US during the two decades leading up to the Global Financial Crisis. Chart 22US Earnings Have Not Always Outperformed The Role Of US Tech The large weight of the tech sector in the US stock market explains much of the superior performance of US stocks over the past decade. As Chart 23 illustrates, EPS in the I.T. sector has grown a lot more quickly than in other sectors. Chart 23US Earnings: Who Has Been Doing The Heaving Lifting? Chart 24S&P 500: Much Of The Increase In Margins Has Occurred In The I.T. Sector Looking out, there are four reasons why US tech stocks may be due for a breather. First, tech valuations have gotten stretched relative to the broader market. Second, tech margins have risen to unprecedented high levels. We estimate that about half of the increase in S&P 500 profit margins since 2007 has been due to I.T. (Chart 24). Even that understates the role of tech in the expansion of profit margins because Standard & Poor’s no longer classifies some large-cap behemoths such as Google and Facebook as I.T. companies. Third, tech companies may face increased regulatory scrutiny in the years ahead stemming from alleged privacy violations, perceived monopolistic behavior, and worries about the censorship of online speech. This could weigh on sales and earnings growth. Fourth, the growth in private equity funds is likely to limit the number of tech companies that go public at a very early stage. Stock market investors were very lucky that companies such as Microsoft, Cisco, Nvidia, Qualcomm, Oracle, Amazon, and Netflix issued shares to the public at a young stage in their development (Table 2). All seven had market caps below $1 billion when they went public. Such hidden gems are becoming less common: The number of publicly listed companies in the US has fallen by more than half over the past two decades (Chart 25). The median age of tech companies at the time of IPO has risen from around 7 in the 1990s to 12 years today (Chart 26). Table 2Big Gains From Once Small Companies Chart 25The Number Of Publicly Listed Companies Fell   Chart 26Tech Companies Entering The Public Arena Are Now More Mature Had Uber gone public as a small, upstart company not long after it was founded in 2009, it probably would have also made public shareholders a lot of money. Instead, it ended up going public this year with a market cap of $75 billion, only to see it shrink to as low as $40 billion in the ensuing six months. We won’t even mention what would have happened if WeWork had gone public. Investment Conclusions An examination of the relative performance of US vs non-US companies over the past 50 years reveals two major tops, and one potential top: The first during the “Nifty 50” era of the late 1960s, the second during the 1990s dotcom boom, and the third during the recent FAANG craze (Chart 27). It is too early to say whether FAANG stocks have peaked, but it is worth noting that the group has underperformed the S&P 500 since May (Chart 28). Chart 27Putting The Recent FAANG Craze Into Context Chart 28FAANG Stocks And The Market Chart 29Has The Underperformance Of Value Run Its Course?   Regardless of whether the secular outperformance of US equities is ending, the cyclical backdrop that we foresee over the next 12-to-18 months – characterized by faster global growth, a weakening dollar, and higher commodity prices – is likely to favor non-US stocks. As such, investors should remain overweight global equities relative to bonds, but start increasing allocations to non-US stocks at the expense of US stocks. Consistent with this, we are initiating a new recommendation to go long the MSCI ACWI ex USA index versus the MSCI USA index in dollar terms. Looking across the various stock markets outside the US, we are particularly fond of Europe. Net profit margins among companies in the STOXX Europe 600 index are about three percentage points below the S&P 500. This gives European companies greater scope to boost earnings. European banks are especially attractive, sporting a forward PE of 8.3, a price-to-book ratio of 0.6, and a dividend yield of 6.1%. Lastly, on the question of style investing, we would note that the relative performance of the MSCI value and growth indices closely tracks the performance of global financials versus I.T. (Chart 29). Given our preference for the former over the latter, we suspect that value will outperform growth next year.   Peter Berezin Chief Global Strategist peterb@bcaresearch.com   Footnotes   Strategy & Market Trends MacroQuant Model And Current Subjective Scores Tactical Trades Strategic Recommendations Closed Trades

Highlights Duration: A survey of the five factors that determine the path for Treasury yields suggests that further upside is likely. We see a clear path to 2.5% for long-maturity Treasury yields as recessionary risk moves to the back burner in the coming months. Credit Cycle: C&I lending standards tightened on net in the third quarter of 2019. But other indicators of monetary conditions point to continued accommodation. We expect lending standards will soon move back into “net easing” territory. Remain overweight Spread Product versus Treasuries. IG Valuation: Investment grade corporate bond spreads for all credit tiers are now below our fair value targets. We recommend only a neutral allocation to the sector. Investors should prefer high-yield bonds, where spreads are more attractive, and Agency MBS, which offer competitive expected returns and much less risk. Feature Chart 1Recession Risk Getting Priced Out The bond sell-off continued last week, driven by positive developments in US/China trade negotiations and tentative signs of stabilization in some global growth indicators. The renewed sense of economic optimism has reduced the recessionary risk priced into bond markets. The 2/10 Treasury slope has steepened 30 bps since it briefly inverted in late August. During that same period, the 2-year Treasury yield is up 15 bps, the 10-year yield is up 45 bps and the Bloomberg Barclays Treasury index has underperformed a position in cash by 2.7% (Chart 1). These recent developments raise two important questions. First, should investors chase or fade the back-up in Treasury yields? And second, if the sell-off does continue, how high can yields go? To answer these questions we turn to the five macro factors that drive trends in US bond yields. These factors were outlined in our “Bond Kitchen” report from last April, and are listed right here:1 Global growth Policy uncertainty The US dollar The output gap Sentiment Back In The Kitchen Global Growth Chart 2CRB Index Needs To Rebound Three global growth indicators are particularly relevant for US Treasury yields. They are the Global Manufacturing PMI, the US ISM Manufacturing PMI and the CRB Raw Industrials index. The latter is especially useful because it updates on a daily basis. Considering the CRB index, we notice that, while it is no longer in a steep downtrend, it has also not rebounded alongside the jump in bond yields (Chart 2). This should give us pause. Continued low readings from the CRB index make it more likely that bond yields will fall back in the coming weeks. We should also note that the ratio between the CRB index and Gold is more highly correlated with the 10-year Treasury yield than the CRB index itself.2 This ratio has bounced off its lows (Chart 2, top panel), but only because Gold has come under downward pressure. With the Fed committed to maintaining an accommodative policy stance until inflation expectations are re-anchored, we expect the Gold price to remain well bid. This means that raw industrials prices must rebound to keep the ratio trending higher. The CRB/Gold ratio has bounced off its lows, but only because Gold has come under downward pressure. More encouraging than the CRB index is the Global Manufacturing PMI, which has moved off its lows during the past three months (Chart 3). The increase has been partially driven by stronger US readings (Chart 3, panel 2), but principally by a significant jump in China’s PMI (Chart 3, bottom panel). Chart 3China Pulling The Global Manufacturing PMI Higher Somewhat stronger China PMI readings should be expected, given the rebound in our China Investment Strategy’s Li Keqiang Leading Indicator – a composite measure of monetary conditions, money and credit growth (Chart 4).3 We should also expect further modest policy stimulus from China, as long as the labor market remains under pressure (Chart 4, bottom panel). Turning to the US, we have seen three very positive developments in the economic data during the past month. First, the ISM Services PMI jumped from 52.6 to 54.7 in October (Chart 5). A drop in this index to 50 or below would be consistent with a US recession, while the combination of a strong service sector and a depressed manufacturing sector is consistent with our baseline 2015/16 roadmap. This roadmap leads to an eventual rebound in the manufacturing index. Second, the ISM Manufacturing PMI rose a tad in October, but the New Export Orders component jumped significantly from 41 to 50.4 (Chart 5, panel 2). Since the global slowdown began as a non-US phenomenon, a rebound in this export component sends a strong signal that we are at an inflection point. Finally, consumer confidence rose in October following a sharp decline in September. A year-over-year decline in the consumer confidence index is a reasonably strong recession signal, but recent data suggest that this signal is fading (Chart 5, bottom panel). Chart 4Modest Stimulus In China Chart 5Three Positive Developments All in all, the global growth data have turned more positive during the past month. US indicators, in particular, are no longer sending strong recessionary signals. A rebound in the CRB Raw Industrials index would give us more confidence in the durability of the recent rise in Treasury yields. Policy Uncertainty Uncertainty about the US/China trade conflict has eased considerably during the past few weeks, as the two sides appear to be working toward a “phase 1” deal that would prevent the imposition of new tariffs and roll back some that are already in place. Heightened uncertainty about the trade war played a large role in dragging bond yields lower in 2019. This becomes apparent when you notice that survey and sentiment (aka “soft”) data about the economic outlook have been significantly worse than the actual “hard” data on US economic activity.4 It is clear that negative sentiment about the trade war has held survey data and bond yields down, even as underlying US economic activity has been solid. Less bullish dollar sentiment supports a continued uptrend in Treasury yields.  We see a continued easing of trade tensions as we head into the first half of next year. President Trump has an incentive to support the economy in an election year, given the historical record of incumbent presidents being re-elected when the economy is strong. However, if this strategy doesn’t work and Trump finds himself behind in the polls by the end of next summer, then he could decide that ramping up the trade war again is the best course of action. In other words, another spike in policy uncertainty in the second half of 2020 is possible if President Trump is trailing in the polls. The US Dollar Chart 6Dollar Sentiment Points To Higher Yields The US dollar is important for the path of US Treasury yields because it signals whether US yields are decoupling from yields in the rest of the world. In other words, if the dollar appreciates significantly alongside rising Treasury yields, then we should view those yields as increasingly out of step with the rest of the world, and thus more likely to fall back down. So far, the dollar has been relatively flat as yields have risen and bullish sentiment toward the US dollar has declined significantly (Chart 6). Less bullish dollar sentiment supports a continued uptrend in Treasury yields. But if yields do in fact continue to rise, it will be important to watch the dollar’s reaction. The Output Gap Chart 7Wage Gains Hurting Margins, Not Raising Prices Some sense of the output gap is important for forecasting bond yields. This is because the same amount of global growth will lead to more inflationary pressure and higher bond yields when the output gap is small than when it is large. The fact that the output gap is smaller now than it was in 2016 is probably the reason why the 10-year Treasury yield bottomed 10 bps above its 2016 trough this year, and why the average Treasury index yield bottomed 47 bps above its 2016 trough. We have found wage growth to be an excellent indicator of the output gap, and noted in a recent report that wage growth should continue to accelerate.5 In this vein, another crucial variable to monitor is labor compensation as a percent of national income (Chart 7). The rise in this series indicates that wage gains during the past few years have come at the expense of corporate profit margins, and have not been passed through to higher consumer prices. If this series proves to have a lot more cyclical upside, then it could be some time before wage acceleration translates to higher inflation. Sentiment Chart 8Surprise Index Says Sentiment Is Neutral The final factor we consider when forecasting US Treasury yields is sentiment. We have found that the Economic Surprise Index is the single best measure of aggregate market sentiment. That is, when the Surprise index reaches a positive or negative extreme, it usually means that sentiment is too positive or too negative, and will mean-revert in the months ahead. Also, we have observed a strong correlation between the Surprise index and changes in Treasury yields (Chart 8). At present, the Surprise index is roughly neutral, and therefore does not send a strong signal about where sentiment might push bond yields during the next few months. Investment Conclusions To summarize, the outlook from our five macro factors suggests that Treasury yields will rise further in the coming months. Global growth indicators are showing tentative signs of bottoming, and should rise to levels more consistent with the “hard” economic data as policy uncertainty continues to wane. The fact that the US economic data look less recessionary than they did one month ago makes us more confident that our global indicators will rebound. Chart 9A Clear Path To 2.5% We would become concerned about a renewed downtick in yields if the CRB Raw Industrials index fails to rebound, or if the dollar strengthens significantly in the coming weeks. At the beginning of this report, we asked how high Treasury yields can go if the global growth rebound proves durable. To answer that question we refer to current estimates of the long-run neutral fed funds rate. The FOMC’s median estimate of the long-run neutral fed funds rate is 2.5% and the median estimate from the New York Fed’s Survey of Market Participants is 2.48%, with an interquartile range of 2.25% - 2.5%. If recessionary fears move to the back burner, it would be logical for long-dated yields to converge toward those levels. That is in fact what happened in recent years, with the 5-year/5-year forward Treasury yield peaking several times at levels close to the Fed’s median neutral rate estimate (Chart 9). With this in mind, we see a clear path to 2.5% on the 5-year/5-year forward Treasury yield, with the 10-year yield reaching similar levels since the 5/10 Treasury slope is likely to remain flat (Chart 9, bottom panel). For yields to eventually move above 2.5%, the market would have to re-consider its outlook for the long-run neutral fed funds rate. We discussed what factors to monitor in this regard in a recent report.6 Bottom Line: Treasury yields have moved significantly higher in recent weeks, but a survey of the five factors that determine the path for Treasury yields suggests that further upside is likely. We see a clear path to 2.5% for long-maturity Treasury yields as recessionary risk moves to the back burner in the coming months. Checking In On The Credit Cycle In previous reports, we mentioned that three factors drive our view of corporate bond spreads and the credit cycle: Balance sheet health Monetary conditions Valuation We last presented a detailed examination of these factors in a report from mid-September, concluding that accommodative monetary conditions will support corporate bond excess returns, despite deteriorating balance sheet health.7 Three factors drive our view of corporate bond spreads and the credit cycle: Balance sheet health, monetary conditions,and valuation. But since then, C&I lending standards – an important indicator of monetary conditions – moved into “net tightening” territory for the third quarter of 2019 (Chart 10). Tightening C&I lending standards, if they persist, would put significant upward pressure on corporate defaults and credit spreads. Chart 10Credit Cycle Checklist: Monetary Conditions While the recent move in lending standards is concerning, we expect it to reverse in the near future. The yield curve, another indicator of monetary conditions, has steepened in recent months, suggesting that conditions are becoming more accommodative. Also, loan officers reported that the terms on C&I loans continued to ease in Q3, even as overall standards tightened (Chart 10, panel 3). Most importantly, inflation expectations remain extremely low (Chart 10, bottom panel). This gives the Fed every incentive to maintain accommodative monetary conditions. This should give lenders the confidence to ease lending standards, leading to tight credit spreads and a low corporate default rate. Bottom Line: C&I lending standards tightened on net in the third quarter of 2019. But other indicators of monetary conditions point to continued accommodation. We expect lending standards will soon move back into “net easing” territory. Remain overweight Spread Product versus Treasuries. Downgrade Investment Grade Corporates To Neutral Last week, we downgraded our recommended allocation to investment grade corporate bonds from overweight to neutral.8 We maintain a positive view of the credit cycle, and expect that corporate bonds will continue to outperform Treasuries. However, investment grade corporate spreads no longer provide adequate compensation for their level of risk. We maintain an overweight allocation to high-yield corporates, where spreads remain attractive. Chart 11 shows that investment grade corporate spreads have tightened somewhat in recent months, but that they remain well above the tights seen in early 2018. However, the chart also shows that average index duration has increased considerably this year. All else equal, higher index duration justifies a wider spread. In contrast, notice that high-yield index duration fell this year (Chart 11, bottom panel). This is because high-yield bonds usually carry embedded call options, making them negatively convex. All else equal, lower index duration makes the spread offered by the high-yield index more attractive. Because changes in spread and duration are both important, we prefer to use the 12-month breakeven spread as our main valuation tool. This measure is the spread widening required on a 12-month investment horizon to underperform a duration-matched position in Treasuries. It can be approximated by dividing the option-adjusted spread by duration. Chart 12 shows investment grade 12-month breakeven spreads as a percentile rank since 1995. The overall message is that spreads have rarely been lower. Chart 11Higher Durations Makes IG Spreads Look Too Tight Chart 12Investment Grade Corporate Spreads Have Rarely Been Lower Finally, we can also recognize that spreads tend to be tight in the middle and late stages of the credit cycle. In the current environment, that means we should expect spreads to be near the bottom of their historical ranges. To control for this fact, we re-calculate our breakeven spread percentile ranks using only mid-cycle periods when the slope of the yield curve is between 0 bps and 50 bps. We can then back-out spread targets for each credit tier based on the median 12-month breakeven spreads seen in similar macro environments. Chart 13 shows that spreads for all investment grade credit tiers have moved below our targets. High-yield spreads are not shown, but they remain well above target levels.9 Chart 13Spreads For All IG Credit Tiers Are Below Target In place of investment grade corporates, which have become expensive, we recommend upgrading Agency MBS. MBS now offer expected returns that are comparable with corporate bonds rated A or higher, with considerably less risk.10 Bottom Line: Investment grade corporate bond spreads for all credit tiers are now below our fair value targets. We recommend only a neutral allocation to the sector. Investors should prefer high-yield bonds, where spreads are more attractive, and Agency MBS, which offer competitive expected returns and much less risk.   Ryan Swift US Bond Strategist rswift@bcaresearch.com Footnotes 1 Please see US Bond Strategy Weekly Report, “Bond Kitchen”, dated April 9, 2019, available at usbs.bcaresearch.com 2 For details on why the ratio between the CRB Raw Industrials index and Gold tracks the 10-year Treasury yield please see US Bond Strategy Portfolio Allocation Summary, “The Sequence Of Reflation”, dated March 5, 2019, available at usbs.bcaresearch.com 3 Please see China Investment Strategy Special Report, “The Data Lab: Testing The Predictability Of China’s Business Cycle”, dated November 30, 2017, available at cis.bcaresearch.com 4 For more details on the divergence between “soft” and “hard” data please see US Bond Strategy Weekly Report, “Crisis Of Confidence”, dated October 22, 2019, available at usbs.bcaresearch.com 5 Please see US Bond Strategy Weekly Report, “Position For Modest Curve Steepening”, dated October 29, 2019, available at usbs.bcaresearch.com 6 Please see US Bond Strategy Weekly Report, “Position For Modest Curve Steepening”, dated October 29, 2019, available at usbs.bcaresearch.com 7 Please see US Bond Strategy Weekly Report, “Corporate Bond Investors Should Not Fight The Fed”, dated September 17, 2019, available at usbs.bcaresearch.com 8 Please see US Bond Strategy Portfolio Allocation Summary, “The Fed Will Stay Supportive”, dated November 5, 2019, available at usbs.bcaresearch.com 9 For details on how we calculate our spread targets please see US Bond Strategy Weekly Report, “The Value In Corporate Bonds”, dated February 19, 2019, available at usbs.bcaresearch.com 10 For more details on the positive outlook for MBS please see US Bond Strategy Weekly Report, “Two Themes And Two Trades”, dated October 1, 2019, available at usbs.bcaresearch.com Fixed Income Sector Performance Recommended Portfolio Specification

Highlights Maintaining an adequate level of aggregate demand has proven to be one of the biggest macroeconomic challenges of the modern era. Yet, in principle, it should not be difficult to increase demand. After all, people like to consume. If households are not spending enough, governments can just give them money or increase spending directly on public infrastructure and other worthwhile endeavors.  Various explanations have been proposed for why these solutions either won’t work or are bad ideas even if they do work. These include Ricardian Equivalence-type arguments; claims that periods of high unemployment may be necessary to cleanse financial and economic imbalances; and concerns about excessive levels of government debt. None of these explanations are particularly persuasive, which suggests that politics, rather than economics, may be at the heart of the demand-side secular stagnation problem. Bondholders benefit from low inflation, which has often led them to oppose meaningful fiscal stimulus. Looking out, the influence of bondholders is likely to wane as populism proliferates. Investors should favor “real assets” such as equities, real estate, and commodities over “nominal assets” such as bonds and cash. A Rather Peculiar Problem Some problems are hard to solve. Curing cancer is hard. Reconciling quantum mechanics with general relativity is hard. But why should getting people to spend more be so difficult? After all, people like to consume. It is getting them to save that should be challenging. And yet, the most pressing macroeconomic problem in many countries over the past decade (and much longer in Japan) has been generating enough spending to achieve full employment, which is a precondition for allowing central banks to move away from extreme measures such as quantitative easing and negative rates. It would be one thing if secular stagnation were primarily a problem of inadequate supply. Increasing supply is difficult. While some economists such as Robert Gordon have focused on the poor prospects for potential GDP growth in developed economies (sluggish productivity and labor force growth being among the key culprits), the Larry Summers characterization of secular stagnation is first and foremost about inadequate demand. If people are not spending enough, why can’t the government simply increase transfers to households or spend money directly on public infrastructure, scientific exploration, or other worthwhile endeavors? Three arguments have been advanced as to why this strategy either will not work or is a bad idea even if it does work: 1) Ricardian Equivalence-type theories claiming that the private sector will increase savings by enough to counter larger budget deficits, thus leaving overall demand unchanged; 2) claims that periods of high unemployment are both necessary and desirable for shifting resources to more productive uses; and 3) concerns that higher government debt levels stemming from larger budget deficits will impose long-term costs that swamp the short-term growth benefits of fiscal stimulus. As we discuss below, none of these arguments are particularly persuasive. This suggests that politics, rather than economics, explains why there has been so much reluctance towards fiscal easing. Ricardian Equivalence Ricardian Equivalence stipulates that the lifetime present value of after-tax income determines household consumption. This implies that if a government issues each person a check for $1 million, everybody will just save the money in anticipation of higher taxes down the road. If that sounds a tad implausible, this is because the theory assumes, among other things, that everyone is perfectly rational, can borrow as much as they want, and lives forever (or at least values their heirs’ or beneficiaries’ welfare as much as their own).  The theory is even less convincing when applied to government spending. Only in the extreme scenario where the government permanently increases spending would rational, infinitely-lived households cut their spending by exactly enough to offset the rise in government expenditures. If the increase in government spending were perceived to be temporary, aggregate demand would still rise, even if everyone is completely rational. To see this, consider a case where the government increases spending by $1 billion per year for three years. The “rational” response would be for households to cut their own expenditures by the annual carrying cost of the additional $3 billion in debt. Assuming an interest rate of 2%, this would amount to a reduction in annual consumption of about $60 million, leaving a net annual fiscal boost of $940 billion. The example above almost certainly overstates the negative impact on consumption in situations where the economy is operating below potential. This is because raising government spending in a depressed economy will boost output, thus increasing the present value of lifetime incomes. The expectation of higher income will lift consumption. The bottom line is that Ricardian Equivalence applies only in a very narrow range of circumstances, none of which are relevant in the real world. Indeed, as Box 1 discusses, the empirical evidence clearly suggests that fiscal multipliers are positive, especially in economies grappling with high unemployment. The Urge To Purge One popular view, often associated with the Austrian School of economics, is that recessions cleanse the economy and the financial system of excesses, paving the way for faster growth. The main problem with this view is that it assumes that resources will only shift to more worthwhile uses if many people are unemployed. In practice, this is not the case. In any given month, about five million US workers will either quit or lose their job, while a slightly higher number will find new work (Chart 1). Chart 1Labor Market Churn Tends To Increase As Unemployment Falls Chart 2Residential Construction Accounted For Only 20% Of The Job Losses During The Great Recession   The small difference between gross inflows and outflows is the net change in employment. This is the number investors focus on every month when the payroll report is released; it is usually less than 5% of gross flows. Strikingly, gross separations usually rise when the unemployment rate falls, implying that labor market churn increases when the economy strengthens. This occurs because more people tend to quit their jobs when the labor market is tight and job openings are plentiful. The pro-cyclicality of the quits rate dominates the counter-cyclicality of the discharge rate. The Great Recession demonstrated that most of the job losses during severe downturns are gratuitous in the sense that they impose needless suffering on workers without making the economy more productive. Chart 2 shows that only 20% of US job losses between 2007 and 2009 took place in the residential building sector and related financial activities where excesses were plainly evident. The rest of the losses were in parts of the economy that had little to do with the housing bubble.   Too Much Debt? Opponents of loose fiscal policy often point to rising government debt levels as an unwelcome side effect of larger budget deficits. Worries about high debt levels are certainly justified for countries that do not print their own currencies. When a country lacks a buyer of last resort for its debt, a self-fulfilling crisis can develop where rising bond yields make it more difficult for the government to service its obligations, leading to even higher bond yields (Chart 3). Chart 3Multiple Equilibria In Debt Markets Are Possible Without A Lender Of Last Resort In contrast, central banks in countries that are able to issue debt in their own currencies can always purchase their own government’s bonds with newly issued cash. They can also set short-term interest rates at whatever level they want, thus ensuring that the government has a reliable source of financing. The “golden rule” for debt sustainability says that a country’s debt-to-GDP ratio will stabilize as long as the interest rate the government pays on its debt is less than the growth rate of the economy. This is true regardless of how big a primary budget deficit the government runs (Chart 4).1 Chart 4Debt Dynamics When r Is Less Than g In fact, the higher the debt-to-GDP ratio is, the larger the sustainable level of the budget deficit that the government can achieve. For example, if nominal GDP growth is 4% and the target debt-to-GDP ratio is 50%, the government can run a budget deficit of 2% of GDP in perpetuity; in contrast, if the target debt-to-GDP ratio is 250%, the government can run a budget deficit of 10% of GDP. The catch is that this magic only works if the interest rate stays below the growth rate of the economy. When there is a lot of spare capacity, this is not a major issue since interest rates can be kept low without the worry that inflation will accelerate. Things get trickier once the economy reaches full employment. At that point, if the budget deficit remains high, inflation could rise as aggregate demand begins to outstrip the economy’s productive capacity. This may cause the central bank to raise interest rates, which could be a vexing problem for a highly indebted government. One might argue that the government could preempt the central bank from having to raise rates simply by tightening fiscal policy once the economy begins to overheat. In many cases, this would indeed be the correct response. However, there may be some occasions where tightening fiscal policy is politically impossible. In such cases, the preferred political response may be to allow inflation to rise. Higher inflation would push up nominal income, thus putting downward pressure on the debt-to-GDP ratio. Once the real value of the debt has been inflated away, the central bank could raise rates in order to cool the economy. Would such an inflationary strategy be preferable to not running a large budget deficit to begin with? It depends on who you ask! If you ask bondholders, they would certainly say no. If anything, bondholders might prefer a deflationary environment since falling prices would increase the purchasing power of their bonds. In contrast, workers and businesses may prefer more stimulus. For them, higher inflation down the road is a price worth paying if it means continued low unemployment and rising profits. How do these competing interests balance out? In most cases, the economy would be better off following the bigger budget deficit/higher inflation strategy. This is partly because deflation is generally a greater risk to the financial system and the broader economy than inflation. It is also because the capital stock is likely to grow more quickly in an economy that is able to stay close to full employment than one that suffers from deficient demand (firms generally invest more when unemployment is low). Hence, not only can fiscal stimulus provide short-term support to employment and consumption during the period when demand is depressed, it can even generate longer-term gains in the form of higher labor productivity and lower structural unemployment compared to what would have happened in the absence of any fiscal easing. The Political Economy Of Debt And Inflation The discussion above suggests that political forces, rather than economic logic, explain why some countries fail to take the necessary steps to solve what should be an elementary problem: increasing demand. In particular, demand-side secular stagnation is likely to be a bigger threat in countries where the preferences of bondholders and others who benefit from very low inflation hold sway. The appreciation of this fact helps explain some key developments in economic history, while shedding light on what the future may hold. Chart 5Universal Suffrage Made Inflation Politically More Palatable Than Deflation The introduction of universal suffrage in the first few decades of the twentieth century made inflation politically more palatable (Chart 5). A poor farmer did not need to worry quite as much about losing his land to the bank, since he could vote for someone who would ensure that crop prices increased rather than decreased. In William Jennings Bryan's colorful words, the rich and powerful would no longer “crucify mankind upon a cross of gold." Today, populism is on the rise again. Whether it is rightwing populism or leftwing populism, the result is usually the same: bigger budget deficits and higher inflation. Retirees may not welcome higher inflation, but given the choice between rising prices and cuts to pensions and health care programs, they are likely to opt for the former. For their part, today’s youth has become increasingly enamored with socialism. According to a recent YouGov poll, 70% of Millennials would be somewhat or extremely likely to vote for a socialist candidate (Chart 6). More than one-third of Millennials view communism favorably, while about 20% think the Communist Manifesto “better guarantees freedom and equality” than the Declaration of Independence. No wonder the Democrats are talking about introducing Universal Basic Income, Medicare For All, and a Green New Deal. Chart 6Woke Millennials Cozying Up To Socialism Contrary to conventional wisdom, an individual’s political attitudes are fairly stable over their lifespan.2 This suggests that the average political orientation of US voters will continue to move leftward as older voters pass away. Meanwhile, globalization – a historically deflationary force – has peaked (Chart 7). And despite all the hype about game-changing technological innovation, productivity growth in advanced economies continues to underwhelm (Chart 8). Chart 7Globalization Has Peaked   In a world of excess savings, inflation could be held at bay. However, the ratio of workers-to-consumers has now begun to decline as ever more baby boomers leave the labor force (Chart 9). As more people stop working, aggregate savings will fall. The shortage of savings will put upward pressure on the neutral rate. If central banks drag their feet in raising policy rates in response to an increase in the neutral rate, monetary policy will end up being too stimulative. As economies overheat, inflation will pick up. Chart 8Productivity Growth In Advanced Economies Has Decelerated Materially Chart 9The Worker-To-Consumer Ratio Has Peaked Globally   Investment Conclusions Few people are worried about rising inflation these days, as evidenced by the weakness in long-term market-based inflation expectations (Chart 10). For now, most of our leading inflation indicators remain contained (Chart 11). However, we suspect this will change in the next few years as the unemployment rate – which is already at a generational low in the G7 – continues to fall (Chart 12). Chart 10Long-Term Inflation Expectations Are Muted Chart 11An Inflation Breakout Is Not Imminent   Chart 12Falling Unemployment Rate Across Developed Markets Chart 13Prices And Wages In Japan Have Been Rising Since 2014... Albeit At A Sluggish Pace   Chart 14Japan: Labor Market Tightening May Eventually Spur Higher Inflation As we discussed two weeks ago in our analysis of whether negative rates will spread out across the world, both the theoretical and empirical evidence suggest that the Phillips curve is kinked.3 This means that a decline in the unemployment rate may not have a significant effect on inflation until unemployment reaches a threshold that is low enough to trigger a price-wage spiral. The US will probably be the first major economy to reach the kink, but others will follow. This includes the mother of all recent deflationary economies: Japan. Chart 13 shows that Japanese prices are rising again, albeit still at a slower pace than the BoJ’s target. Japanese inflation will accelerate if the labor market continues to tighten. Already, the ratio of job openings-to-applicants is near a 45-year high (Chart 14). All this suggests that investors should favor “real assets” such as equities, real estate, and commodities over “nominal assets” such as bonds and cash. To the extent that investors need to maintain exposure to fixed income, we would recommend a short-duration stance and above-benchmark exposure to inflation-linked securities. Box 1 Fiscal Multipliers: How Large? Peter Berezin Chief Global Strategist peterb@bcaresearch.com Footnotes 1Please see Global Investment Strategy Weekly Report, “Is There Really Too Much Government Debt In The World?” dated February 22, 2019, for a fuller discussion of this debt sustainability equation. 2Johnathan Peterson, Kevin Smith, and John Hibbing, “Do People Really Become More Conservative as They Age? ” The Journal of Politics, (2018). 3Please see Global Investment Strategy Special Report, “Is The Entire World Heading For Negative Rates?” dated October 25, 2019.   Strategy & Market Trends MacroQuant Model And Current Subjective Scores Strategic Recommendations Closed Trades

Highlights The slowdown in global industrial activity appears to have bottomed. This, along with an apparent shared desire for a ceasefire in the Sino-US trade war, points toward a measured recovery in manufacturing and global trade, which will contribute to higher iron-ore and steel demand beginning in 1H20. A trade-war ceasefire, should it endure, will reduce global economic uncertainty. Along with continued monetary accommodation from systematically important central banks, reduced economic uncertainty will boost global growth and industrial-commodity demand generally by allowing the USD to weaken. We expect Beijing policymakers to remain focused on keeping GDP growth above 6.0% p.a. To that end, we believe a boost in infrastructure spending next year is likely, which also will be bullish for steel demand. Given China’s growing share of global steel production, we expect price differentials for high-grade iron ore – most of which comes from Brazil – to widen as steel demand increases next year. Given this view, we are initiating a strategic iron-ore spread trade at tonight’s close: Getting long December 2020 high-grade (65% Fe) futures traded on the Singapore Exchange vs. short the benchmark-grade (62% Fe) December 2020 futures traded on the CME. We recommend a 20% stop-loss on this recommendation. Feature Iron ore and steel demand will get a lift from the rebound our proprietary Global Industrial Activity (GIA) index has been forecasting for the past few months (Chart of the Week). The GIA index is designed to pick up changes in Chinese industrial activity, given its outsized influence on world industrial output, and also makes use of trade data, FX rates, and global manufacturing data. The rebound we are expecting will get a fillip from an apparent shared desire for a ceasefire in the Sino-US trade war, which, based on media reports, is close to being agreed. Should this ceasefire prove to be durable, it would contribute to a lowering of global economic policy uncertainty (GEPU), which, as we have shown recently, has kept the USD well bid to the detriment of industrial-commodity demand.1 Chart of the WeekBCA GIA Index Pick-Up Points To Higher Global Steel Demand While we do expect economic uncertainty to decline next year, it will remain elevated due to continued Sino-US trade tensions – even if a “phase-one” deal is agreed – ongoing hostilities in the Persian Gulf, and popular discontent with the political status quo globally. As global economic uncertainty fades, the USD broad trade-weighted index for goods (TWIBG) will fall, which will bolster EM GDP growth, and a recovery in global trade next year (Chart 2). If, as media reports suggest, this so-called “phase-one” agreement includes a relaxation – or complete removal – of tariffs by the US on Chinese imports, we would expect manufacturing activity to pick up as Chinese manufacturers spin-up capacity to meet demand. A reduction in tariffs also will lessen the deadweight loss they imposed on US households, which will support higher consumption.2 Chart 2Reduced Global Economic Uncertainty Bolsters Global Trade Volumes, EM GDP That said, economic uncertainty still remains high. This uncertainty is destructive of demand and will remain a key risk factor in 2020. While we do expect economic uncertainty to decline next year, it will remain elevated due to continued Sino-US trade tensions – even if a “phase-one” deal is agreed – ongoing hostilities in the Persian Gulf, and popular discontent with the political status quo globally. China’s Steel Demand Holds Up In Trade War China accounts for more than half of global steel production and consumption, and the lion’s share of seaborne iron-ore consumption (Chart 3). This makes its steel industry critically important to the global economy, and a key barometer of industrial activity worldwide. With global industrial activity bottoming and moving higher, and the USD expected to weaken, we expect iron ore demand and steel production in China to move higher next year as domestic and global demand for steel rises. China’s apparent steel demand held up fairly well during the slowdown observed in manufacturing and in commodity demand growth globally, averaging 8% y/y growth ytd (Chart of the Week, bottom panel). It now appears to be stalling in the wake of the global manufacturing slowdown. In addition, Chinese credit stimulus remains weak, contrary to expectations. However, with global industrial activity bottoming and moving higher, and the USD expected to weaken, we expect iron ore demand and steel production in China to move higher next year as domestic and global demand for steel rises.3 Chart 3China Dominates Global Steel Production and Consumption Chart 4Construction, Real Estate Strength Offset Lower Chinese Auto Production Greater demand for steel by the construction and real estate sectors offset lower consumption by the automobile industry in China this year, as manufacturing and trade slowed globally (Chart 4). Overall, apparent demand is still growing (Chart 5), which will continue to support iron ore imports, even though domestic production of low-grade ore picked up as steelmakers’ margins tightened earlier in the year (Chart 6). Chart 5China"s Apparent Steel Demand Growth Holds Up During Industrial Slowdown Chart 6China Iron Ore Imports Remain Stout Chinese imports from Brazil have rebounded following the Brumadinho tailings dam collapse in January at Vale’s Córrego do Feijão iron ore mine, which killed close to 300 people. The collapse in margins from steel mills combined with outages to Brazil and Australia high-grade ore exports led to a rise in imports and domestic production of low-grade iron ore. High-Grade Iron Ore Favored; Policy Uncertainty Persists Our overall view for industrial commodities – iron ore, steel, base metals and crude oil – is constructive but not wildly bullish going into next year. Our oil view, for example, calls for a rally in the average price of crude oil next year of ~ 10% from current levels for Brent crude oil, the world benchmark. While we expect global monetary stimulus to offset much of the tightening of financial conditions brought on by the Fed’s rate hikes last year, and China’s de-leveraging campaign of 2017-18, elevated economic uncertainty will keep the USD better bid that it otherwise would be absent the Sino-US trade war and global economic policy uncertainty. This translates into weaker commodity demand, generally, as a strong USD raises local-currency costs for consumers and lowers local-currency production costs for producers. At the margin, both push commodity prices lower. On a relative basis, we expect the more efficient, less-polluting technology likely will be called on to meet higher steel demand – in China and globally – next year, which means higher-grade iron ore will be favored by Chinese steel mills as profitability improves. For iron ore and steel in particular, environmental considerations also are important, given the Chinese government's “Blue Skies Policy” aimed at reducing the country’s high levels of air pollution.4 This policy has led to the forced retirement of older, highly polluting steelmaking capacity, which has been replaced with newer, less-polluting technology that favors high-grade iron ore. However, the application of regulations designed to reduce pollution has been uneven, and still relies on local compliance, which has been spotty. We expect demand for high-grade ore will increase as global manufacturing and trade also recovers. On a relative basis, we expect the more efficient, less-polluting technology likely will be called on to meet higher steel demand – in China and globally – next year, which means higher-grade iron ore will be favored by Chinese steel mills as profitability improves. The restoration of high-grade exports from Brazil means this ore will be available. It is worthwhile noting that these steelmakers account for an increasing share of global capacity. For this reason, we expect demand for high-grade ore will increase as global manufacturing and trade also recovers (Chart 7). Given our view, at tonight’s close we will get long December 2020 high-grade iron-ore futures (65% Fe) traded on the Singapore Exchange vs. short benchmark-grade iron-ore futures (62% Fe) traded on the CME. Both are quoted in USD/MT and settle basis Chinese port-delivery (CFR) indexes in cash. Given the uncertain nature of the durability and depth of the ceasefire currently being negotiated by the US and China, we will keep a stop-loss on this position of 20%. Bottom Line: China’s steel demand has held up relatively well despite the global slowdown in manufacturing and trade. Given our expectation for a pick-up in global growth – in response to global monetary and fiscal stimulus and lower economic uncertainty in the wake of a ceasefire in the Sino-US trade war – we expect Chinese steel demand to resume growing. This will support iron ore prices, particularly for high-grade ores. On the back of this expectation, we are recommending an iron-ore spread trade, going long high-grade futures vs. short benchmark-grade iron ore futures. Chart 7High-Grade Iron Ore Should Outperform Strategically   Robert P. Ryan Chief Commodity & Energy Strategist rryan@bcaresearch.com Hugo Bélanger Senior Analyst Commodity & Energy Strategy HugoB@bcaresearch.com   Market Round-Up Energy: Overweight. Bloomberg reported China is looking to invest between $5-$10 billion in the Saudi Aramco IPO through various vehicles. Such an investment would give China a deeper stake in the Kingdom’s oil industry, and a hedge to price shocks. In addition, it could open the way for deeper investment in the Saudi oil and petchems industries. For KSA, as we have argued in the past, a deepening of China’s investment and involvement in the Kingdom’s economy would diversify the states that have a vested interest in ensuring its safety.5 We will be updating our analysis of China’s pivot to the Middle East, and KSA’s pivot to Asia next week. Separately, we the last of our Brent backwardation trades – i.e., long December 2019 Brent vs. short December 2020 Brent – was closed last week with a gain of 110.8%. Base Metals: Neutral. Copper prices are up 6% vs. last month, supported by supply-side worries in Chile and, more recently, easing trade tensions. Cyclically, we believe copper prices are turning up – spurred by easy monetary conditions and fiscal stimulus directed at infrastructure and construction spending. Most of our key commodity-demand indicators have bottomed and are suggesting EM demand growth will move up. This supports a year-end base metal rally. Precious Metals: Neutral. A risk-on sentiment fueled by expectation the U.S. and China will sign a trade deal weighs on gold’s safe-haven demand. Prices fell 2% since last week. Additionally, U.S. 10-year bond yields shot higher – pushing gold prices lower – on Tuesday following a stronger-than-expect ISM services PMI data release. Gold-backed ETF holdings reached a new record in September at 2,855 MT (up 377 MT ytd), surpassing the December 2012 peak. A reversal in investors’ sentiment towards gold could send prices down. Ags/Softs: Underweight. The USDA reported that 52% of the U.S. corn has been harvested, a 13 percentage point increase relative to last week, yet the figure came shy of analysts’ expectation and far below the 2014-2018 average of 75%. On a weekly basis, corn prices are still down 2% due to drier weather forecast. Soybean harvest did better reaching 75%, and meeting expectations. Soybean price is almost unchanged on a weekly basis, despite having edged higher earlier in the week on the back of rising expectations the US and China will agree on a ceasefire in the ongoing trade war.   Footnotes 1     We measure this uncertainty using the Baker-Bloom-Davis Global Economic Policy Uncertainty (GEPU) index. This is a GDP-weighted index of newspaper headlines containing a list of words related economic uncertainty. Newspapers from 20 countries representing almost 80% of global GDP are scoured for reports reflecting economic uncertainty. Please see our October 17 and October 31, 2019, reports Policy Uncertainty Lifts USD, Stifles Global Oil Demand Growth and Global Financial Conditions Support Higher Commodity Demand for the original research on this topic. Both are available at ces.bcaresearch.com. 2    We discuss deadweight losses to US households arising from the tariffs in Waiting To Get Long Copper, In China’s Steel Slipstream, published August 29, 2019. It is available at ces.bcaresearch.com. 3    BCA Research’s China Investment Strategy expects China’s business cycle likely will bottom in 1Q20 of next year, rather than in 4Q19. This aligns with our expectation. Please see China Macro And Market Review, published November 6, 2019. It is available at cis.bcaresearch.com. 4    We examined the implications of China’s “Blue Skies” policy in China's Anti-Pollution Resolve Critical To Iron Ore Markets, published April 4, 2019. It is available at ces.bcaresearch.com. 5    We discuss these issues in our Special Report entitled ضد الواسطة published November 16, 2018. The Arabic title of the report translates as "Against Wasta." Wasta means reciprocity in formal and informal dealings. Investment Views and Themes Recommendations Strategic Recommendations Tactical Trades TRADE RECOMMENDATION PERFORMANCE IN 2019 Q3 Commodity Prices and Plays Reference Table Trades Closed in 2019 Summary of Closed Trades