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Geopolitics

German Election: Winds Of Change, Again

The rise of the far-right is challenging mainstream German politics. The CDU/CSU and SPD will govern Germany again after the election. A ceasefire in Ukraine will offer some relief, but Trump’s policies will keep tensions high. 

Geopolitical Strategy, European Investment Strategy by Yushu Ma
A Will E. Coyote Moment For Markets?
Our Chart Of The Week comes from Jonathan LaBerge, Chief Strategist for our Special Reports Unit. Jonathan asks whether investors should be encouraged by the fact stocks are shrugging off US tariffs. The answer is no, because the same thing happened in…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Ukraine Ceasefire A Tailwind For Europe

President Trump is negotiating a ceasefire in Ukraine. This will be a marginal headwind to some commodities which benefitted from the conflict like natural gas and wheat, and will be a marginal tailwind for European assets, specifically EM Europe. Use Trump’s tariff shock as an opportunity to buy European assets.

Geopolitical Strategy by Matt Gertken
Europe Is Next

Europe is about to become President Trump’s next target. The good news: a US/EU trade war will be short as common ground to achieve a deal exists. The bad news: European assets remain at the mercy of heightened uncertainty. How should investors position themselves in this tricky context?

European Investment Strategy by Mathieu Savary
Will Trump Conquer North America?
Our Geopolitical strategists published a Special Report discussing President Trump’s rhetoric on territorial expansion in North America, Greenland, and Panama. The biggest surprise of Trump’s first weeks in office has not been tariffs, which were…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
China: Caixin PMIs Point To Continued Low Growth
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Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Gold: Bet On Momentum
While the US dollar has outperformed every single DM currency in the past few months, the only monetary asset it did not outperform is gold. The greenback is up between 5-10% against DM currencies since September of last year, but down by more than 8% vs.…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
China: Bracing For The Impact Of Tariffs
Our China Investment strategists assessed the impact of increased US tariffs on China. The latest US tariff hike on Chinese imports is expected to cut China’s GDP growth by 0.6 percentage points in 2025, primarily through a 2.5-3.0 percentage points drag…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Tariff Man Comes Out Swinging
Our Global Investment strategists offered their initial thoughts on the nascent US trade war with its allies, with a few longer-term takeaways. President Trump’s decision to delay Mexico tariffs on Monday highlights the uncertainty surrounding trade…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
China Geopolitical Outlook 2025

China barely hit its growth target in 2024 by shifting back to its old model of exports, racking up a record trade surplus with the world – right as Donald Trump walks back into the White House. Tariffs will elicit larger fiscal stimulus even as China rolls out innovations such as DeepSeek to meet its 2025 industrial goals, creating a volatile mix this year.

Geopolitical Strategy, China Investment Strategy by Yushu Ma, Matt Gertken

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