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Fixed Income

Escaping Europe’s Liquidity Trap
Our European strategists see Europe escaping its liquidity trap, which will create a structural tailwind for European assets. Europe’s resilience amid global shocks is supported by a shift away from precautionary money demand, signaling increased…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
ISM Manufacturing: A Stagflationary Impulse
The February ISM Manufacturing index was weaker than expected, declining to 50.3 from 50.9. New orders plunged to 48.6 from 55.1, with employment also contracting. Price pressures however increased. Prices paid and suppliers’ delivery times jumped to their…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Tokyo CPI Remains Hot
The February Tokyo CPI print came in slightly cooler than expected. Headline inflation moderated to 2.9% y/y from 3.4%, while “core core” was steady at 1.9%. The Tokyo CPI gives an advance reading on national price pressures, and the data suggests…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
The Tariff Shock And The Fed’s Response

Core PCE inflation was tame this morning, but with large tariffs looming we anticipate loftier inflation readings in the months ahead.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
‘Mini-Stagflation’ Will End With A Financial Shock

The US (and the UK) is staring down the barrel of a ‘mini-stagflation’ until a deflationary shock arrives to neutralise it. We describe a likely source for the deflationary shock and list three investment conclusions that are valid irrespective of how long it takes for the deflationary shock to arrive. Plus: RCI.B is deeply oversold and ripe for a rebound.

Counterpoint by Dhaval Joshi
US Rates Focus Shifts From Fiscal To Growth
The House of Representatives passed a Budget Resolution bill that adds $2.8tn to the deficit by 2034. Our Geopolitical strategists highlighted during our BCA Live & Unfiltered meeting that the Senate is likely to modify it by increasing tax cuts and…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
European Wages Cool
Fourth-quarter European negotiated wages growth cooled to 4.1% y/y, down from the 5.4% peak seen in Q3. The cooling is in line with the ECB’s Wage Tracker showing wage growth decelerating to 1.3% by the end of the year. Labor demand is easing in Europe,…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
A Tactical Regime Shift?
Two of our favorite indicators recently sent important signals. The first one, the short-term stock-bond yield correlation, recently drifted back to neutral territory after being negative. The correlation had been negative since December, reflecting increased…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Will The Dollar Maintain Its Reserve Currency Status?
Our Chart Of The Week comes from Chester Ntonifor, Chief Strategist for our Foreign Exchange and Global Fixed Income Strategy services.   A big macro trade over the last few years has been to shun US Treasuries, in favor of gold. The key driver has…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
The RBA Delivers A Hawkish First Cut

Overnight, the RBA cut the cash target rate for the first time since 2022, marking the beginning of the policy easing cycle in Australia. However, the RBA will proceed cautiously with further rate cuts, given a tight labor market and still elevated services inflation. This will keep Australian government bond yields elevated versus global yields, benefitting the Australian dollar.

Global Fixed Income Strategy, Foreign Exchange Strategy by Robert Timper, Chester Ntonifor

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