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Fixed Income

Don't Chase Yields Higher

Some thoughts on this week’s bear-steepening of the Treasury curve and this morning’s employment report.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
The Collapsed Complexity Of Stocks Versus Bonds Spells Danger For Goldilocks
The recent ‘Goldilocks’ stock market rally is predicated on the hope that developed countries really can kill inflation without killing their economies. But one important warning sign suggests that the rally has gone too far too fast, and is vulnerable to…
Daily Insights
A Mixed Message From Caterpillar
Caterpillar’s Q2 earnings results released on Tuesday beat consensus estimates by a wide margin. Second quarter profit of $2.92 billion ($5.67 per share) came in well above expectations of $2.38 billion ($4.46 per share). The stock jumped to an all time high…
Daily Insights
Fitch US Downgrade: AA+ Is The New AAA
US financial markets were dealt a summer shock yesterday with Fitch Ratings lowering its sovereign credit rating on the US to AA+ from AAA. This brings the rating down to the same level as that of S&P, which announced its own US downgrade nearly twelve…
Daily Insights
A Seasonal Illusion Threatens Goldilocks Markets

Collapsed complexity, plus the unwinding of favourable base effects and favourable seasonal adjustments to the inflation and jobs numbers, all pose a danger to the Goldilocks market.

Counterpoint by Dhaval Joshi
Is The RBA Done With Rate Hikes?
The Reserve Bank of Australia kept interest rates on hold at 4.1% on Tuesday, surprising expectations of a 25bps increase. Governor Philip Lowe’s statement underscores that the decision “will provide further time to assess the impact of” the 4 percentage…
Daily Insights
July In Review
The performance of global financial markets continued to improve in July, with most of the major financial assets we track generating positive abnormal returns for the second consecutive month. Asian markets led this dynamic with Chinese investable stocks…
Daily Insights
Is There A Bullish Case For EM ex-China? (Part 1)

Some investors have thrown in the towel on investing in Chinese equities, instead deploying capital in EM ex-China – or at least contemplating doing so. This report examines the merits of investing in EM ex-China stocks and concludes that EM – whether including or excluding China - will continue underperforming DM equities.

Emerging Markets Strategy by Arthur Budaghyan
Monthly Portfolio Update: Slower Inflation, Then Slower Growth

History suggests that a “soft landing” is highly unlikely after such an aggressive Fed tightening cycle. The rally could continue for a little longer but, on the 12-month horizon, market risks are very skewed to the downside.

Global Asset Allocation by Garry Evans
Eurozone Growth Improves, Core Inflation Sticky
The Eurozone economy returned to expansion in the second quarter with real GDP rising by 0.3% q/q – beating expectations of 0.2% q/q. This follows an upwardly revised 0.0% in Q1 and a 0.1% contraction in Q4 2022. In particular, Ireland (+3.3%) and Lithuania,…
Daily Insights

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