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Financial Markets

Although not our base case, there is a path for the US economy to avoid a recession over the next few years. We see the risks to stocks as tilted to the upside in the near term but to the downside over a 12-month horizon.

Investors have become increasingly more optimistic about the economic outlook. BoA’s Global Fund Manager Survey shows the share of investors surveyed expecting the global economy to experience a soft landing over the next 12 months rose to 68% in July. That…

In this report, we evaluate the breakdown in the dollar and next moves in the DXY, based on fundamentals, historical precedents, and technical patterns over the last few years.

While excellent state & local government balance sheet health will remain a tailwind for muni returns, poor valuation prompts us to downgrade the sector from overweight to neutral.

In this report, we evaluate the breakdown in the dollar and next moves in the DXY, based on fundamentals, historical precedents, and technical patterns over the last few years.

Spain is holding a general election this Sunday and the country is likely to veer to the right. Will this shift threaten European unity and herald a new period of tensions in the Eurozone?

The South African rand has been a key winner amid the recent improvement in risk sentiment. Notably, the ZAR's 10.9% appreciation versus the US dollar since May 25 has made it the best performing major currency over this period. To the extent that the…
According to BCA Research’s US Investment Strategy service the risk-reward from overweighting equities and underweighting fixed income is far less appealing than it was toward the end of last year. Now that the mood is brightening, growth expectations are…
Singapore’s trade data continue to send a pessimistic signal about global manufacturing conditions. The year-over-year contraction in non-oil domestic exports (NODX) deepened to -15.5% y/y in June from -14.8% y/y – marking the ninth consecutive month of…
In the first five months of the year, optimism about GAI (generative AI) drove a narrow rally in US equities. The three sectors that contain companies that are most exposed to this dynamic were the only ones that experienced price gains. IT, Communication…