Financial Markets
According to BCA Research’s Global Investment Strategy service, the risk of a second inflation wave has gone up. Until last December’s FOMC meeting, the team’s bias was to think that the Fed would cut rates too slowly. While the release of the Fed minutes…
Following today’s US jobs data release, the Joshi rule real-time US recession indicator inched up to 0.18 and is now just a whisker from its recession event-horizon of 0.20.
A soft landing can be achieved but not maintained. We are cutting our tactical recommendation on stocks from overweight to neutral and scaling back our long-duration stance.
S&P 500: Is A January Selloff An Ominous Sign?
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China’s equity market stands out as a major underperformer vis-à-vis its global peers in 2023. The 13% drawdown in China’s investable stock price contrasts with the 20% rally in the MSCI ACW Index. It reflects the country’s disappointing recovery as…
2023 was an unexpectedly good year for global financial markets. Most of the major financial assets we track generated positive abnormal gains. Although US stocks outperformed their global counterparts, Eurozone, Japanese, and EM ex-China equities led in…
Global financial markets ended 2023 on a positive note, delivering a second consecutive month of exceptional gains in December. Fixed income once again led in terms of abnormally large returns on the back of increased expectations of Fed rate cuts in 2024.…
According to BCA Research’s Global Fixed Income Strategy service, the timing and pace of rate cuts in 2024 will differ across countries, representing a big sea change from the highly correlated rate hiking cycles of the past two years. Currently, the…
In this, our final report of the year, we present our main global fixed income investment themes and recommendations for 2024.
A post-mortem of our trades for the year, and also comments on future yen and sterling moves from the recent BoJ meeting, and the UK inflation report.