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Europe

European Credit: More Easing Will Be Needed
European monetary data printed in line with expectations in October, with M3 growing 3.4% y/y vs. 3.2% in September. Growth in private sector lending was unchanged at 1.2% y/y despite the recent easing in lending standards. We expect the credit impulse to…
Daily Insights
France: Too Early To Buy The Dip
Investors focused on the flurry of cabinet nominations in the aftermath of the US election, but the US does not have a monopoly on political drama. France is going through turmoil of its own. This summer’s snap election left France’s government weakened,…
Daily Insights
Europe’s Last Sell-Off?

European assets and the euro have become oversold and are likely to rebound. Will this move be nothing more than a dead cat bounce leading to more weakness? 

European Investment Strategy by Mathieu Savary
Ifo Confirms Softening European Momentum
The November Ifo Business Climate index for Germany missed expectations, falling to 85.7 from 86.5 in October. Both subcomponents decreased, with the Current Assessment sliding 1.4 points to 84.3 and Expectations essentially flat at 87.2. The data confirm…
Daily Insights
Hot UK CPI Won’t Cool BoE Easing Intentions
UK inflation was hotter than expected in October, rising to 0.6% m/m from being flat in September. Core inflation also ticked up, printing at 3.3% y/y vs. 3.2% a month prior. Services inflation remains elevated at 5.0% y/y.   We do not expect…
Daily Insights
ZEW: Headwinds Accumulating For European Growth
Economic expectations for Germany and the Eurozone disappointed, with the November ZEW decreasing to 12.5 from 20.1. The assessment of current conditions also worsened, implying the sentiment rebound from September will not be sustained. The outlook…
Daily Insights
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Central Bank Monitor Update: Easing Forward

This week, we update our Central Bank Monitors (CBMs), that help us calibrate how monetary policy should be adjusted in developed-market economies. Our conclusion is that while overall, easier monetary settings are required, there a few trade ideas that arise from the divergences in signals amongst G10 countries.

European Investment Strategy, Global Fixed Income Strategy, Foreign Exchange Strategy, US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift, Mathieu Savary, Chester Ntonifor
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A Gradual Approach In Response To Uncertainty

This Strategy Insight presents our view on today’s rate cut by the Bank of England as well as the budget announced by the UK government last week.

Global Fixed Income Strategy, Foreign Exchange Strategy by Robert Timper
BoE: A Hawkish Cut Signals The MPC Is In Charge
The Bank of England cut its policy rate in line with expectations to 4.75%, but it signaled a more gradual pace of cuts as it increased its inflation forecast following last week’s budget. A 25 bps cut with hawkish guidance strikes the balance the BoE…
Daily Insights
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Pre-Election Update: Trump And European Markets

As the odds of a Trump victory rise, European assets underperform US ones. What would be the immediate impact of a Trump victory on European stocks?

European Investment Strategy by Mathieu Savary

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