Sorry, you need to enable JavaScript to visit this website.
Skip to main content
Skip to main content

Equities

F_IMAGE_20240705_104848.PNG
The Best Possible World For European Stocks?

Does the incipient slowdown in European data herald a soft landing and a goldilocks period for equities? We have our doubts.

European Investment Strategy by Mathieu Savary
ISM Services PMI Contracts At Fastest Pace In Four Years
The ISM Services PMI largely disappointed in June. The headline index plunged from 53.8 to 48.8, its fastest pace of contraction since May 2020, far below expectations of 52.7. This series can be noisy and the June update merely reversed a surprise surge…
Daily Insights
Bleak Capex Outlook Bodes Ill For Cyclical Assets
US durable goods orders grew by 0.1% m/m in May, a tick below April’s pace, and upending preliminary expectations they would decline by 0.5%. Moreover, the contraction in core capital goods shipments (an input into the calculation of GDP) was revised lower…
Daily Insights
f_image_20240703_130954.PNG
US Unemployment: The Good, The Bad, And The Ugly

We explain how to distinguish between ‘good’, ‘bad’ and ‘ugly’ unemployment, why bad unemployment is a much better gauge of the jobs market than headline unemployment, and what this means for the tactical positioning in bonds and stocks. Plus: base metals (XBM) have already sold off sharply, so take profits in the short position and open a tactical overweight in global materials (MXI).

Counterpoint by Dhaval Joshi
US Job Openings Unexpectedly Rise
The number of job openings in the US surprised to the upside in May, growing from a downwardly revised 7.9 million to 8.1 million. Not only did the growth in job openings beat expectations of a decline, but the May number even grew compared to the pre-revised…
Daily Insights
From Which Chinese PMI Should Investors Take Their Cue?
Chinese manufacturing PMIs remained mostly stable in June. The Caixin PMI ticked 0.1 point higher to 51.8 while the NBS measure remained at 49.5. Both leading gauges of Chinese manufacturing activity are thus sending seemingly conflicting signals, with one…
Daily Insights
Contracting ISM Manufacturing Hides Even Weaker Demand Conditions
The ISM manufacturing PMI ticked lower in June, from 48.7 to 48.5, thus disappointing expectations of a slower pace of manufacturing sector contraction. The seemingly small decline hides more uninspiring dynamics. Most notably, the production, employment…
Daily Insights
f_image_20240628_180256.PNG
Quarterly Portfolio Outlook: Recession Signs Increase

Concerns about the global economy have shifted from sticky inflation to faltering growth. Tight monetary policy is finally starting to bite. We suggest increasing portfolio defensiveness.

Global Asset Allocation by Garry Evans
f_image_20240628_164817.PNG
UK Election: Defeat Of Two Nationalisms

The Labour Party’s comeback in the UK is widely expected and will lead to fiscal stimulus consisting of increased public spending with minimal tax hikes. But a sweeping single-party majority will reduce social unrest only at the cost of higher taxes over the medium term. The paradigm has shifted away from the Thatcherite low-tax regime of the now-discredited Tories. v

Geopolitical Strategy, European Investment Strategy by Matt Gertken
South Africa: Time To Upgrade
In a recent report, BCA Research’s Emerging Markets Strategy team recommended upgrading South African assets. The team argued that the new national unity government has an opportunity to ease the restrictive policies and implement structural reforms. The…
Daily Insights

Related Topics

AI BCA Indicators/Model BDCs Bubbles/Crises/Manias Commodities Commodities & Energy Sector Country In-Focus Currencies Defaults Deleveraging See more Topics