Equities

This week, our three screeners cover equity plays in US OAS Spreads, US Exceptionalism, and “DIVE”.

The Trump slump is nearing a temporary reprieve, with a playable countertrend rally in stocks and a tactical rebound in the dollar. Go tactically long USD/SEK. For long-term investors though, the AI bubble still has a lot of air to come out.

A falling stock market and sticky bond yields represent the worst of both worlds for investors. We interrogate why bond yields haven’t dropped more given the large selloff seen in equities.

There is an alternative to investing in US stocks: Do it via Europe (DIVE). Allocate to European sectors or stocks that are highly and positively correlated with the Magnificent 7 but do not suffer stretched valuations.

Although there may be a method to DOGE’s 100-mile-an-hour madness, we think the worries and uncertainty stoked by it and on-again, off-again tariff measures have increased the probability of a recession while bringing forward its start date. We are therefore tactically downgrading equities to underweight and upgrading fixed income and cash to overweight. Investors should pursue a defensive posture.