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Israel At War: Synopsis Of Causes And Effects

Investors underestimate the likelihood of the war in Israel spilling outside of Gaza, and engulfing wider swaths of the Middle East, endangering energy supplies. Stay overweight Energy and Aerospace & Defense.

US Equity Strategy by Irene Tunkel
Chinese Export Contraction Eases Amid Surging Vehicle Sales
On the surface, the slower pace of contraction in Chinese exports in September is a positive signal for global trade. The 6.2% y/y drop in the dollar value of Chinese exports was not as bad as the 8% y/y decline anticipated or the 8.8% y/y decline in August. …
Daily Insights
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Bonds Are Great Again

US monetary policy is restrictive, as evidenced by a falling jobs-workers gap. The reason that unemployment has not risen is because labor demand still exceeds supply. That will change in the second half of 2024 when the US economy succumbs to recession. Investors should increasingly favor bonds over stocks.

Global Investment Strategy by Peter Berezin
Hotter-Than-Anticipated US PPI
The US PPI report came in hotter-than-anticipated in September. Although the headline index decelerated from 0.7% m/m to 0.5% m/m, it remains above expectations of a more pronounced moderation to 0.3% m/m. In particular, a 3.3% m/m increase in energy prices…
Daily Insights
Taiwanese Exports Unexpectedly Return To Growth
Taiwanese exports unexpectedly grew for the first time in just over a year in September – sending a positive signal about the global manufacturing cycle. The 3.4% y/y increase surprised anticipations of a moderation in the rate of decline from -7.3% y/y to…
Daily Insights
Fading Corporate Pricing Power
The Q3 earnings season will shift into high gear this Friday as banks report their financial results for the quarter. Among the trends that we’ll be watching for is insight on the outlook for profit margins. As our US Investment strategists recently…
Daily Insights
The European Auto Sector Is A Value Trap
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, European automobile and components stocks will suffer over the coming years. The European automobile and components equity sector is cheap, trading at a modest 5.4 times forward earnings or…
Daily Insights
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The Time To Buy Bonds

The sharp sell-off in long duration bonds (ticker TLT) has reached the collapsed 130-day complexity that implies a probable and playable rebound. More strategically, long-duration bonds yielding close to 5 percent are an excellent structural investment assuming central banks choose to slay inflation and the cost is a near-term recession. We discuss how to time and how to play the potential rebound.

Counterpoint by Dhaval Joshi
China: Would A New Stimulus Round Boost Growth?
Dovish comments by several Fed officials contributed to a Treasury rally and improvement in sentiment towards risk assets on Tuesday. Globally, rumors that Beijing is planning to unleash more stimulus supported Chinese financial assets and global China plays.…
Daily Insights
Global Manufacturing Remains A Concern For European Equities
As we highlighted in a recent Insight, the stronger-than-anticipated improvement in German factory orders should be viewed with some degree of caution. Germany is the European economy most exposed to the global manufacturing sector. Several leading indicators…
Daily Insights

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