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Emerging Markets

Singapore Exports: Lingering Weakness
Singapore’s trade numbers continue to send a warning for the global economy. The year-on-year pace of decline in non-oil domestic exports deepened in April after slowing in the prior two months. Importantly, the weakness is particularly pronounced among…
Daily Insights
Has The Rand Reached Its Low Point?
The South African rand is among the worst performing major global currencies since the DXY peaked on September 27 (behind only the Argentine peso, Russian ruble, and Turkish lira). Given that the ZAR is a high-beta currency, it typically performs well in a…
Daily Insights
On China’s Underwhelming Recovery
The latest Chinese economic data releases for April signal a disappointing domestic recovery. Weak economic conditions during the Shanghai lockdown last April created a low base effect which boosted the annual comparison. However, the 5.6% y/y increase in…
Daily Insights
Stay Underweight Indonesian Stocks
According to BCA Research’s Emerging Markets Strategy service, investors should stay underweight Indonesian equities within Emerging Market and Emerging Asian equity portfolios. Unprecedented export earnings have pushed Indonesia’s current account into a…
Daily Insights
Erdogan Heads To A Runoff Election
Results of Turkey’s presidential election show incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdogan securing 49.5% of the votes in Sunday’s contest – ahead of his rival Kemal Kilicdaroglu’s 44.9%. Although Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) lost 29 seats in…
Daily Insights
Two Elections: Turkey And Thailand

The Turkish presidential election will go to a runoff in two weeks, but President Erdogan outperformed his opinion polls. His party, the incumbent AKP, won a majority in parliament. This outcome rewards Turkey’s inflationary policies and as such reinforces our underweight position in Turkish equities. By contrast, the Thai election reinforces our recommendation to stay overweight Southeast Asia relative to global equities.

Geopolitical Strategy
China’s Recovery Disappoints
Chinese economic data sent a disappointing signal about the country’s economic recovery. CPI inflation moderated to 0.1% y/y – its slowest pace since February 2021. Similarly, the pace of decline in producer prices accelerated to -3.6% y/y. Meanwhile,…
Daily Insights
Erdogan On The Brink

Erdogan will most likely lose the Turkish election but it could go onto a second round. A strong opposition majority in the assembly would justify a tactical overweight in Turkish equities on a relative basis. For now, go long Turkish equity volatility.

Geopolitical Strategy
Will China Revert To Its Old Stimulus Playbook?
BCA Research’s China Investment Strategy service expects the recovery in China’s economy (other than the consumer sector) to underwhelm.  A recent conversation with a one of China’s most prominent and influential pro-market economists (whom they refer…
Daily Insights
A Conversation With A Chinese Pundit

This week we are sending you a transcript of my conversation with one of China’s most prominent and influential pro-market economists. Topics raised during my conversation with this Chinese expert may offer our clients important insights and provide context into recent developments in China’s economy.

China Investment Strategy by Jing Sima

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