Economy
China’s re-opening – powered by the fiscal and monetary stimulus required to achieve at least 5% real GDP growth after flattish 2022 growth – and a weaker USD will catalyze demand growth this year and next, lifting global oil consumption by close to 2mm and 1.7mm b/d in 2023 and 2024. We lowered our Brent forecast slightly for this year to $110/bbl, and expect 2024 prices to average $115/bbl. WTI will trade $4-$6/bbl lower.
Preliminary estimates indicate that the value of US retail sales fell by a larger-than-expected 1.1% in December following a downwardly revised 1% decrease in November, marking the largest monthly decline since December 2021. Department stores (-6.6% m/m),…
After having unexpectedly doubled its Yield Curve Control (YCC) cap on 10-year government bond yields from 0.25% to 0.5% at its December meeting, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) did not adjust its policy further in January. Instead, the monetary policy statement…
The Fed Beige Book continues to provide a somber outlook for the US economy. It highlighted that “overall economic activity was relatively unchanged since the previous report” and that “contacts generally expected little growth in the months ahead.” In…
According to BCA Research’s US Political Strategy service, the US political and geopolitical context has not yet verifiably improved, and they doubt it will prior to 2024. Any market rally will be capped at an unexpected time over the coming months. The US…
Investors should stay defensive on recession risks until they subside meaningfully.
The ZEW survey of investor sentiment sent an upbeat signal about economic conditions in both Germany and the Eurozone in January. Most notably, the expectations subindices for both regions rebounded sharply to positive territory, from -23.6 to 16.7 in the…
The gauge of manufacturing activity in the state of New York sank a whopping 21.7 points to -32.9 in January, largely disappointing expectations of a marginal improvement to -8.6. Notably, new orders and shipments dropped by 27.5 and 27.7 points respectively,…
Chinese GDP growth slowed sharply from 8.4% in 2021 to 3.0% in 2022. Moreover, the economy remained weak in Q4, with GDP growth softening from 3.9% q/q in Q3 to 0.0% q/q (from 3.9% y/y to 2.9% y/y). However, the deterioration in economic activity was widely…
Asian currencies have strengthened in recent months, with the ADXY index up 7.8% since the beginning of November. These gains reflect broad-based dollar weakness: the DXY Index has fallen 8.2% over this period. Dollar dynamics will remain relevant to the…