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Economy

Goldilocks: Possible But Improbable

The odds of achieving a goldilocks scenario in the US where inflation drops amidst robust growth are low. If US bank woes do not escalate, the Fed will continue hiking amid a contraction in US corporate profits and global trade. The recovery in China’s industrial economy will disappoint. Commodity prices are breaking down.

Emerging Markets Strategy by Arthur Budaghyan
How The ‘Most Anticipated Recession’ Is Still Unanticipated

Bank failures are another ‘canary in the coal mine’ warning that a US recession is imminent, yet stocks, bonds, and the oil price are still a long way from fully pricing it.

Counterpoint by Dhaval Joshi
The Fed Can’t Afford To Stand Pat
The US CPI release indicates that price pressures remained elevated in February. Importantly, core CPI inflation ticked up on a month-on-month basis to 0.5% m/m – above expectations it would remain unchanged at 0.4% m/m – marking a continuation of an uptrend…
Daily Insights
Canadian Labor Market Remains Surprisingly Resilient
Canada’s labor market has been surprisingly resilient over the past few months. Last Friday’s employment report showed a 21.8 thousand increase in jobs in February, more than double expectations of 10 thousand. This continues a string of strong beats.…
Daily Insights
NFIB: Inflation, Tight Labor Market Are Key Concerns
The results of the NFIB survey suggest that a restrictive monetary policy stance is warranted from the Fed. Although there is evidence that price pressures are moderating, they remain elevated. Despite a four-point decline from January, the share of…
Daily Insights
More Large-Cap Bank Failures Are Unlikely
Since Silicon Valley Bank (SIVB) was seized by the FDIC last Friday, and Signature Bank (SBNY) was shuttered over the weekend, investors have been on pins and needles wondering how many more banks will fold. Our US Investment Strategy service doesn’t…
Daily Insights
Generative AI As A Structural Investment Theme
BCA Research’s US Political Strategy & US Equity Strategy services are bullish on generative AI as a long-term investment theme. One of the reasons for the technology sector’s unexpected outperformance since the beginning of January is a frenzy around…
Daily Insights
Strategy For Central Europe

The growth and inflation profiles of the three central European countries are set to diverge. The outlook for Polish and Hungarian Bonds are not attractive anymore. Book profits on them. Instead, initiate a new trade: pay Polish / receive Czech 10-year swap rates.

Emerging Markets Strategy by Rajeeb Pramanik
Chatting With A Chatbot
Special Report

Generative AI is a major technological breakthrough that holds tremendous economic and investment promise and will have sweeping effects on wide swaths of the economy. We are bullish on generative AI as a long-term investment theme. However, at the moment we observe hallmarks of an investment frenzy. We believe that there will be a more attractive entry point for patient investors.

US Equity Strategy, US Political Strategy, Global Investment Strategy by Irene Tunkel, Guy Russell
Can EM Outperform Amid US Banking Woes?
Emerging market stocks have recently outperformed their developed market peers as the US banking woes have heightened. Is it the beginning of a new trend or a short-term aberration? To a large extent, the answer depends on what happens to the US dollar. If…
Daily Insights

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