Sorry, you need to enable JavaScript to visit this website.
Skip to main content
Skip to main content

Economy

f_image_20231114_132036.PNG
The End Of Fed Tightening Is Now Consensus

Our thoughts on this morning’s CPI print and the bond market’s reaction.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
f_image_20231113_195819.PNG
A Review Of Our Current Tactical Trades

In this Insight, we review the performance and rationale for our current set of tactical fixed income trade recommendations. Our highest conviction positions also happen to be our most successful trades: positioning for a narrowing of the German bund-JGB spread and wider Japanese inflation breakevens.

Global Fixed Income Strategy
Weak Chinese Private Sector Loan Demand In October
China's money and credit data remained weak in October. New total social financing amounted to RMB 1.85 trillion – less than the RMB 1.95 trillion anticipated and below the prior month's increase of RMB 4.12 trillion. Similarly, loans extended by banks fell…
Daily Insights
Sugar Is Bucking The Trend
Agriculture commodity prices have been on a steady decline for over a year. Since peaking in mid-May 2022, the GSCI Agriculture index has dropped by 34% -- nearly half of which occurred in 2023. The weakness is generally broad-based. Corn prices are down 32%,…
Daily Insights
Treasury Yields And The Relative Performance Of Cyclical Equities
Our equally weighted global cyclical equity index has outperformed equally weighted defensives for most of this year. By October 17, this outperformance stood at about 12.6%. This outperformance is consistent with US Treasury market dynamics. The relative…
Daily Insights
Reasons For A Later Recession Start Date
BCA Research's Global Investment Strategy service assigns 25% odds of the recession starting in 2025 or later.  Our colleagues continue to think that the US will succumb to a recession in 2024, probably in the second half of the year. They see the…
Daily Insights
f_image_20231110_161603.PNG
Waiting For The Recession

European markets have room to rebound in the coming weeks, however, a recession looms. What are the lessons from history that investors can use to position themselves under these conditions?

European Investment Strategy by Mathieu Savary
f_image_20231110_183945.PNG
Recap Of Q3 Earnings: Looking Ahead

Q3 earnings commentary has been broadly positive, despite intensifying macro headwinds. Going forward, a negative growth outlook and geopolitical risks, are a threat to buoyant earnings expectations. We project that earnings growth for 2024 will move lower than currently projected - a negative for equities. This Santa Claus rally is unlikely to be the start of a new bull market.

US Equity Strategy by Irene Tunkel, Guy Russell
f_image_20231110_173140.PNG
An Investors' Guide To The 2023 Dutch Snap Election

The Netherlands has a healthier and more stable economy and demography than its European peers. Investors should stay overweight developed European equities, including Dutch equities, relative to emerging European equities.

Geopolitical Strategy by Max Malakhveitchouk, Matt Gertken
US Policy Is Restrictive, But Inflation Expectations Are Still High
The preliminary release for the University of Michigan’s Consumer Survey sent a pessimistic signal about consumer sentiment on Friday. The headline index fell from 63.8 to 60.4 in November, below expectations of a marginal decrease to 63.7. Declines in both…
Daily Insights

Related Topics

AI BCA Indicators/Model BDCs Bubbles/Crises/Manias Commodities Commodities & Energy Sector Country In-Focus Currencies Defaults Deleveraging See more Topics