Economy
China’s credit expanded by less than expected in November. The CNY 2.45 trillion increase in aggregate financing fell short of anticipations of CNY 2.595 trillion following a CNY 1.845 trillion rise in October. Similarly, the CNY 1.09 trillion in new yuan…
Weaker-than-anticipated economic data caused a sharp decline in UK gilt yields over the past few days with the 10 year yield now at its lowest since May. The weakness in economic data was broad-based across various sectors of the UK economy. In the case of…
As expected, the Fed kept the policy rate unchanged in the 5.25%-5.50% range on Friday. Although the statement continued to indicate that the Fed is prepared to tighten further, it also acknowledged that there has been a slowdown in economic growth and that…
The Thai economy has continued to underwhelm its ASEAN peers since the pandemic. It grew at a measly 1.5% in Q3 this year compared to the same period last year. Thai stocks and the currency have sold off as well. That said, the recently elected government has…
According to BCA Research’s Counterpoint service, the AI gold rush will struggle to find any gold. In a gold rush, very few people get rich finding gold. But the guys selling the picks and shovels make a fortune! In the current AI gold rush, the guy selling…
Our US bond team’s thoughts on this afternoon’s FOMC meeting and yesterday’s CPI release.
Our 2024 outlook can be encapsulated into just 39 words and three key views. Key view 1: The end of China’s housing boom means the end of the world’s main growth engine. Key view 2: If the Fed and ECB don’t kill the economy, they won’t kill inflation. Key view 3: The AI gold rush will struggle to find any gold. We go through the investment implications for the year ahead.
The November US CPI release came in broadly in line with consensus expectations on Tuesday. On an annual basis, headline CPI inflation eased from 3.2% y/y to 3.1% y/y while core inflation was unchanged at 4.0% y/y. On a monthly basis, both headline and core…
Australian materials stocks have been outperforming the country’s broad index since mid-August, undoing the sector’s relative losses of the prior months, and bringing the year-to-date gain to 7.7% in absolute terms – above the broad index’s 3.5% increase.…
The continued improvement in German investor morale captured by the ZEW survey corroborates other indicators pointing to near-term support for Eurozone stocks. Economic sentiment jumped three points to a 9-month high of 12.8 in December, surprising…